Geographical forecast

• 1. Types and stages of forecasting
• 2. Forecasting methods
• 3. Features of geographic forecasting
• 4. Types and methods of geographic forecasting

Types and stages of forecasting

The practical meaning of regional environmental management is to use knowledge about the patterns of development of TPHS to make correct forecasts possible changes in the natural environment and society as a result of the implementation of certain events. For example, what will happen to the nature of Mari El if global warming continues? According to the forecast, in a hundred years there will be a forest-steppe here. How will this affect our lives? What will happen to the nature and economy of the republic if sections of the planned highways pass through it - the Moscow-Kazan high-speed railway and the highway to China?

Most suitable for answering similar questions geographical forecasts, because only this science has accumulated a sufficient amount of knowledge and methods to solve complex problems that arise at the intersection of nature and society. Hence the usefulness of studying this topic. Generally speaking, a special course on geographic forecasting would be useful, but, unfortunately, we have no one to teach it yet.

As always, let's start with definitions.

Forecast- a probabilistic judgment about the state of any phenomenon in the future, based on a special scientific research(forecasting) Newest philosophical dictionary 2009 //dic.academic.ru.

The subject can be divided into natural science and social science forecasting. Objects natural history forecasting are characterized uncontrollability or insignificant degree controllability; prediction V within natural history forecasting is unconditional And oriented on device actions To expected condition object. IN within social science forecasting Maybe have place self-realization or self-destruction forecast How result his accounting Ibid. .

In this regard, the geographical forecast is unique, being at the intersection of natural science and social science. We can direct some processes, but we must only adapt to others. However, the difference between the two is not always obvious. Another problem is that all other sciences deal with quite narrow object research and processes take place there in single-order time intervals. For example, geology deals with processes lasting hundreds and millions of years, meteorology with intervals from hours to several days. The forecast horizons look accordingly. IN geographical systems processes are combined with completely different characteristic times. Therefore, difficulties begin with determining a reasonable duration for which a forecast can be made.

For the purposes of regional environmental management, recommendations for forecasting anthropogenic landscapes are best suited. Forecasts are highlighted here.

Short-term for a period of 10-15 years.

Medium term for 15-25 years.

Long-term - 25-50 years.

Long-term over 50 years.

Urgency forecast Here tied mainly To speed processes V public sphere, But taken into account only relatively slow processes, happening V material basis production comparable With dynamics long cycles Kondratieva. IN special research regional systems environmental management can accepted And other deadlines.

The success of the forecast also depends on the complexity of the object whose future we want to foresee. From the above it is clear that the geographical forecast concerns very complex objects. But in some cases the problem can be simplified without significant loss of forecast reliability, and sometimes we are only interested in the behavior of a few parameters. As a result, depending on the complexity and dimension of the object, forecasts are distinguished.

Sublocal with prediction based on 1-3 variables.

Local in 4-14 variables.

Subglobal 15-35 variables.

Global 36-100 variables.

Superglobals with more than 100 variables.

Depending on the type of predicted processes, two main types of forecasts are distinguished.

Search engines (genetic) . They are directed from the past-present to the future. We study what happened previously, find patterns, and, assuming they will persist or change in a predictable way, infer future behavior of the system. This type of forecast is the only one possible for natural science forecasting. An example is the well-known weather forecasts. Natural development nature does not depend on our desire.

Regulatory (targeted). These forecasts go from the future to the present. Here we determine the ways and deadlines for achieving possible state system taken as a goal. The situation in the present is studied, its desired state in the future is selected, and a sequence of events and actions is constructed that could ensure this state. For example, we want to avoid global warming. We assume that it is caused by emissions greenhouse gases. We set a goal - through X years to ensure their maintenance in the atmosphere at % . Then we look at what measures can ensure the achievement of this result and evaluate the reality of their implementation under certain conditions. On the basis of which we draw a conclusion about the likelihood of achieving our plans. Then we make changes either to the goals or to the methods of achieving them. This type of forecasting is more acceptable in social science research.

Due to the above-mentioned features, a geographical forecast, as a rule, has mixed character with elements of both types.

To increase the reliability of forecasts, it is important to follow their procedure, which includes the following steps.

• 1. Setting goals and objectives. This determines all subsequent actions. If the goal is not formulated, then everything that follows will turn out to be a set of uncoordinated and illogical actions. Unfortunately, the authors of forecasts do not always set the goal explicitly.
• 2. Determination of the temporal and spatial boundaries of the forecast. They depend on the purpose of the forecast. For example, if the goal is to identify the consequences of the construction of the above-mentioned highways for the hydrological regime, then the forecast can be short-term, and the zone of influence is limited to the first hundred meters. If we want to predict socio-economic changes, then this will mean a longer forecast period and a larger territory.
• 3. Collection and systematization of information. There is an obvious dependence on what was specified in points 1 and 2.
• 4. When using the normative forecasting method - building a tree of goals and resources. In this case, the specified goal and the goal of the forecast are different things. In the example given, the normative method can be used for any forecasting purpose. But in the case of the hydrological regime, some kind of normative state must be set as the general goal environment, and for a socio-economic forecast, a certain level of changes in the quality of life of the population involved in the zone of influence of the road. The general goal in both cases is divided into subgoals more and more low levels, until we reach the resources necessary to achieve them.
• 5. Selection of methods, identification of limitations and inertial aspects. Here the dependence on the purpose of the forecast is also obvious. In the case of hydrology and short-term forecasting, methods from landscape geophysics and engineering calculations will mainly be used. In the second case, it is necessary to use economic-geographical, economic and sociological methods. Limitations and inertial aspects will also be different. One of the limitations under the normative method will be, for example, the amount of funds that can be allocated to achieve the goal. Inertial aspects are linked to the forecast period. These include those that change over a period significantly longer than the forecast period. Failure to take into account inertia often leads to unfounded forecasts. Typical example- these are predictions of a rapid transition to alternative energy. This is despite the fact that the service life of the average thermal or nuclear power plant 50 years, and the hydroelectric power station is even longer. Obviously, no one will destroy them until they exhaust their resources.
• 6. Development of private forecasts. Starting with local complexity predictions, it may be necessary to predict the behavior of some input parameters. For example, when assessing the consequences of the construction of highways across our territory on the population distribution, it is necessary to anticipate changes in the natural increase and migration mobility of the population.
• 7. Development of basic forecast options. It is carried out by bringing together and linking particular forecasts. It is recommended to draw up several options for different possible conditions and scenarios for the development of events.
• 8. Examination of developed options and final forecast taking into account the comments received as a result of the examination.
• 9. Using the forecast, monitoring its compliance with the actual course of events and the necessary adjustments to the forecast itself or measures for its implementation, if this is a normative forecast.

Forecasting has now become very important in almost all branches of science and economics, and therefore it is quite natural that geographers have also become interested in forecasting. In the last quarter of the 20th century, works on geographic forecasting were constantly published in geographical publications. However, the problem of forecasting is extremely complex, and it is still premature to talk about an established method of geographic forecasting. Rather, we can talk about scientific research in solving this complex and multifaceted problem.

A special branch is being formed in the system of sciences - prognostics, or the science of forecasting, which generalizes the forecasting experience accumulated in various sciences, develops general theoretical issues and forecasting methods.

Currently, up to a hundred different methods are used in forecasting, which are combined into several groups. However, the selection of methods and verification of their applicability are carried out depending on the goals and object of forecasting, therefore forecasting is an integral part of the science within whose competence the object of forecasting lies. In fact, forecasting itself serves as a method of scientific research, the specifics of its application in different sciences are determined by the specifics of the sciences themselves.

According to academician B. M. Kedrov (1971), forecasting is a characteristic feature of a certain stage of the development of science, which he called predictive, and is preceded by two more stages - empirical and theoretical. Naturally, various sciences do not reach the forecast stage of their development at the same time.

To predict a phenomenon, it is necessary to know its essence and the basic patterns of its development, as well as the nature of the relationship of the predicted phenomenon with others and the conditions under which it manifests itself (Yu. G. Saushkin, 1972). Hence, ! Only at a sufficiently high level of development of the theory of science do its cognitive capabilities expand to the study of phenomena that have not yet come to fruition, but may well occur.

Forecasting is one of the most pressing and complex modern scientific problems. Its development is ensured by the level of development of science, and its formulation is directly and directly related to the needs of practice. The expansion and complexity of interaction between human society and the environment has put on the agenda the need to develop a geographical forecast.

The principles of geographic forecasting arise from theoretical concepts of the functioning, dynamics and development of the PTC, including the patterns of their anthropogenic trans- \ formations. The geographic forecast is based on changes in the state of those factors on which the upcoming

PTC changes. Among these factors there are natural (neotectonic movements, changes in solar activity, self-development of the PTC, etc.) and anthropogenic (economic development of the territory, hydraulic engineering construction, land reclamation, etc.).

Currently, the anthropogenic impact on nature is comparable in strength to the most powerful natural factors and can lead to irreversible changes in nature. Predicting the direction and rate of change in the relationships between nature, population and economy in their temporal and territorial aspect is the task of geographic forecasting.

The geographical forecast is closely connected by bilateral connections with the socio-economic forecast. The socio-economic geographical forecast draws needs forecast, but supplies him forecast of opportunities. First of all, this concerns resource forecasts. However, also with regard to the location of economic sectors and in determining acceptable production technology, a geographical forecast that reveals possible changes in the natural environment serves as a kind of territorial limitator for a socio-economic forecast.

The complexity of a geographic forecast lies in the fact that it covers not only temporary, but also territorial changes in the relationships between three very complex systems: nature, population and economy. Yu. G. Saushkin (1976) notes that the main thing in a geographical forecast is “the scientific prediction of the types and forms of transformation over time of spatial heterogeneity and spatial combination and interaction of various objects (phenomena, processes) on the earth’s surface.”

Geographic forecast is divided into physical-geographical, demogeographical and economic-geographical. A physical-geographical forecast is a forecast of changes in the natural environment, “this is the scientific development of ideas about the natural geographical systems of the future, their fundamental properties and various variable states, including those caused by unintended and unforeseen results of human activity” (V. B. Sochava, 1974). Depending on the completeness of coverage of the components of the geographic envelope, a physical-geographical forecast can be partial or complex.

Private physical-geographical forecasts characterize spatiotemporal changes in one component or phenomenon, or a group of closely interrelated phenomena. Particular forecasts include a forecast of climate change or runoff, a forecast of the development of erosion processes or soil salinization in connection with irrigation, a forecast of changes in vegetation cover or the ratio of heat and moisture, etc. In climatology and hydrology, forecasting studies have been carried out for a long time, so it is already

Considerable experience has been accumulated and a methodology has been developed, although it is not always quite reliable.

Task comprehensive(integral, according to V.B. Sochava) physical-geographical forecasting - identifying trends in changes in the geographical shell of the Earth and individual PTCs of different ranks under the influence of various natural and anthropogenic factors.

Forecast for the development of PTC as integral systems- the most complex forecast, since it must simultaneously cover the entire complex of natural connections, taking into account the anthropogenic impact on them.

Any complex physical-geographical forecast is a multifactorial and multicomponent, and therefore probabilistic forecast, because a change in one of the factors entails a change in relationships, which inevitably affects the nature, direction and rate of change of the entire PTC as a whole. Thus, future changes in the PTC depend on a combination of many conditions and factors, so a comprehensive physiographic forecast must be multivariate.

The multidimensionality of the PTC change forecast is a very significant difficulty that must be overcome in the forecasting process. T. V. Zvonkova (1972) indicates several ways to overcome the barrier of multidimensionality: breaking the whole into parts that are easy to study and calculate; the use of simple indicators that reflect the sum of important predictive factors; combining several indicators into one, etc. All these paths are within the limits of the relationship between analysis and synthesis in forecasting research, but in order to use them, it is necessary to find such groups of closely interrelated factors and phenomena that are either subject to similar patterns of development in space and time, or represent a single causal chain, or caused by one reason, etc. Only such groups can act as independent units, as subsystems of the PTC.

Depending on the nature of the impact of the anthropogenic factor, all predicted changes in the PTC can be combined into three types (K.K. Markov et al., 1974). To the first type relate fromchanges nature, happening without all sorts of things human participation, under the influence of various natural factors: neotectonic movements, hydroclimatic changes, evolutionary changes in biogenic components, as a result of the process of self-development of the PTC, etc.

To the second and third types relate changes PTK underinfluence of the anthropogenic factor. They are divided into targetcorrected, i.e., those that are consciously produced or will be produced by man, and side effects, accompanying, unforeseen changes. The last type of changes causes especially

but a great concern, since they arise as a result of economic activity, which humanity is not able to stop, and can lead to extremely undesirable consequences. These three types of changes occur at unequal speeds, in different directions and are characterized by different patterns, therefore they are predicted independently, but taking into account their interrelations, and then integrated to establish the general trend of changes in nature.

A comprehensive physical-geographical forecast characterizing spatiotemporal changes in the PTC, in terms of territorial coverage (scale) can be global, regionalnom And local, which corresponds to three levels of differentiation geographic envelope(planetary, regional and topological).

Global forecasts are not tied to a specific territory, but are focused on studying temporary evolutionary trends in the development of the Earth as a habitat. Regional ones are focused not so much on temporary, but rather on territorial differences and solutions. Their objects are vast territories within the boundaries of some planned events. A regional forecast is developed taking into account the combination of different economic sectors (types of use of the territory) and different genetic types of PTC in one territory. It helps to identify sustainable trends in changes in nature, taking into account its landscape structure and the economic use of its resources. The local forecast is aimed at studying possible changes in the natural environment under the direct influence of various large economic objects: cities, mining operations, hydraulic structures, etc.

As for the choice of the time period for the forecast, it is determined by social order, the capabilities of geography (its ideas about the acceptable accuracy of definitions) and the duration of the phenomena underlying changes in the PTC. According to forecasting periods, all forecasts are divided into short-term(5-10 years), medium term(15 - 30 years) and long-term(50 - 70 years). The division of geographical forecasts for the foreseeable future into five categories according to forecast periods, given by A. G. Isachenko (1980, p. 233), in our opinion, is not sufficiently justified, since it is not linked to the terms of socio-economic forecasts. Long-term socio-economic forecasts are for 25 - 30 years, the same period serves as the estimated period for the development of regional planning schemes, and the geographical long-term forecast should serve as a pre-project basis for their development, i.e. it should cover a longer period.

The most relevant forecast is considered to be within the next decades. As for short-term forecasts (up to 5 years), then

for so much short term PTCs usually do not have time to noticeably transform, but experience interannual natural rhythms and temporary fluctuations depending on fluctuations in weather conditions.

The short-term geographical forecast is intended to provide the first stage of regional planning schemes and projects (5-7 years), the medium-term forecast - the second stage (10-15 years). Both of these forecasts should give a broader perspective, allowing us to see at least the first results of changes in nature under the influence of planned activities, therefore their deadlines should be more distant than the deadlines for socio-economic forecasts.

As for ultra-short-term forecasts, they are usually not integral, concerning changes in the entire complex as a whole, but specific (crop yield forecast, weather forecast, etc.), or predict dynamic shifts in modern processessah, but do not actually provide a forecast (prediction) of the expected directional changes natural complexes, their development.

Currently, the greatest experience has been accumulated in the development of local forecasts related to the design of large engineering structures. Issues of regional forecasting are less developed. The issues of global complex physical-geographical forecast have practically not been developed at all.

Forecasting changes in the PTC is usually determined by natural factors themselves (K.N. Dyakonov, 1972), the most dynamic of which are climatic ones. At long term When forecasting, it turns out to be necessary to take into account such factors as neotectonic movements.

Anthropogenic impacts seem to be superimposed on the trends of natural changes in nature, strengthening or weakening, and sometimes significantly modifying them, however, it is difficult to foresee possible anthropogenic impacts in the distant future, since they will depend on the level of development of technology and production technology, on the use of certain resources and the creation of new synthetic materials. Therefore, a long-term geographical forecast should be especially flexible and multivariate, should provide for the possible substitutability of factors and be adjusted depending on the level of development of the productive forces. A long-term geographic forecast should become a pre-forecast basis for the development of long-term socio-economic forecasts.

In short-term forecasting, most natural processes do not have time to make noticeable changes in the PTC during the forecast period, so the forecast of changes in nature under the influence of the anthropogenic factor takes on leading importance. It is he who determines the future changes in the PTK. The short-term forecast is based on modern level once-

the development of productive forces, at the current level of anthropogenic impact, can therefore be quite tough.

A forecast period of 25 - 30 years seems optimal for geographic forecasting, since it allows one to trace trends in the natural development of nature and use materials from a long-term socio-economic forecast to assess the influence of the anthropogenic factor.

In order for a geographic forecast to be sufficiently reliable and to serve as the basis for managing environmental changes, long-term planning and administrative decision-making, it must be based on the general principles of forecasting developed by science: historical, comparative, evolutionary, etc. The forecast must be based on stable relationships between phenomena nature and the interactions of nature and society, to be flexible, multivariate, and the forecasting process itself is continuous.

Work on integrated physical-geographical forecasting begins with a detailed study of the PTCs existing in the study area, their modern properties, stable connections and the degree of anthropogenic change. Of particular importance is the study of the spatial structure of the PTC, which serves as a kind of territorial limiter of predicted changes. It is also necessary to collect materials on projected changes in the population composition and economic structure of the study area to assess the influence of anthropogenic factors in the future.

Changes in nature under the influence of natural factors are predicted based on an analysis of the development process of PTC. Analysis of the past, i.e. paleogeographic analysis allows us to establish stable trends in the development of the PTC and makes it possible to predict these changes for the future. This forecast is largely based on comparative geographical analysis. By comparing similar PTCs at different stages of development, we establish natural trends in their development. Comparison of complexes that are similar in natural conditions, but modified to varying degrees by humans, makes it possible to judge the direction, nature, degree and speed of anthropogenic changes, and to establish trends in the development of PTC under the influence of the anthropogenic factor.

Considering the future as a continuation of the past and present, established development trends can be extended to the forecast period. For this purpose they are used extra methodsPolations. True, when using the method of historical extrapolation when forecasting, one must constantly remember about the significant acceleration of natural processes under the influence of the anthropogenic factor and about qualitative changes natural environment as a result of interaction between nature and society.

The trends in their further development over the forecast period, established on the basis of an analysis of the past and current states of the PTC, will change as a result of spontaneous changes in individual factors or under the influence of human economic activity. The PTC allows you to take such changes into account "chain reaction" method making it possible to trace the entire chain of connections between various processes and phenomena and get an idea of ​​their entire complex.

When developing a geographic forecast to justify various engineering projects, it is used pe-SH methodselection of options", allowing, by analyzing and calculating various options for influencing nature, to select the optimal one.

One of the popular and fairly simple forecasting methods is method of expert assessments. The specificity of its application in geographic forecasting lies in the selection of experts who should not only be specialists in their field! affairs and have extensive experience, but also have good knowledge of regional specialties | the value of the territory for which the forecast is being developed. I

Thus, in the process of geographic forecasting, methods of geographical research are widely used, and from the vast arsenal of forecasting methods, only those that are in essence closest to the research methods of geographical science itself are currently used. First of all sch this concerns comparative method, which in the prognostic literature is called comparative. In physical-geographical forecasting, this method is especially important, since it allows the use of territorial and historical analogies.

Closely related to the comparative method are extra methodspolishing, allowing the conclusions obtained from studying several elements of a set to be extended to the entire set. Geographers in their research have long used territorial extrapolations, and when forecasting, the center of gravity is transferred to historical extrapolations, extrapolations in time.

Development modeling methods in complex physical-geographical " physical research is accompanied by their simultaneous implementation in geographic forecasting. First of all, this concerns logical and mathematical modeling.

The gradual improvement of scientific forecasting methods and the accumulation of experience in the development of various geographical forecasts will make it possible to create a fairly reliable and well-developed methodology for complex physical-geographic forecasting - an integral part of the general geographical forecast, the need for which increases as the interaction between nature and society becomes more complex.

CONCLUSION

The main objective of this manual is to introduce methods of complex physical-geographical research, primarily field research, since the field for a landscape geographer is the main laboratory for obtaining new scientific data.

Not being able to talk about everything due to the limited volume of the manual, we stopped at the main thing. From the traditional methods, we chose comparative geographical and cartographic, implemented in the form field descriptions and maps of PTCs, reflecting their spatial distribution and structure, without which any serious further studies of natural geosystems are impossible.

Of the new methods, landscape-geochemical and landscape-geophysical methods are considered, which make it possible to reveal the internal essence of the processes that determine the functioning and dynamics of the PTC. Of the newest methods, only computer methods were touched upon. However, computer technology is developing so rapidly that what has been said will very soon (and constantly) require updating. However, to some extent this applies to all methods. In the third millennium, geographical science faced new challenges related to global environmental problems and the development of sustainable development projects at all levels of social organization. In this regard, now more than ever, the need to integrate science is acutely felt.

A. G. Isachenko at the X Congress of the Russian Geographical Society (1995) spoke about the great disunity in the system of branches of physical geography, noting at the same time that the connections of physical geography with the natural sciences are still closer than with its “sister” - economic geography. And this gap is dangerous. We need joint, comprehensive work - the “double” geography must be unified.

Currently, trends in the ecologization and humanization of geography have intensified. There is no doubt that geographical methods, including complex physical-geographical ones, will also change.

research.

The development of geography went from “arithmetic” (pure specifics) to “algebra” (classification, typification). The expeditionary era lasted a long time, for which there were enough unexplored lands.

1 1 Zhuchkom 305

After its completion, the time has come to move on to stationary research, to “differential and integral calculus”, consideration of velocities and accelerations, and analysis of time ones! and spatial increments. Now there is a transition to cybernetic systemic, nonlinear (fractal) phenomena. In recent decades, formal laws have been discovered that describe the unified behavior of various natural and anthropogenic systems, universal coefficients were found that determine the conditions for transition to a new quality for any process: population growth, transition from laminar movement to turbulent, transition of heart rhythm to fibrillation, chemical reactions, up to human behavior, economics and politics (X.O. Peitgen, P. H. Richter, 1993). On this basis, a new revision of methods is coming, and the problem of continuity arises.

We only see what we know. When perceiving, a person strives to “decompose” complex configurations into simpler ones and to constant synthesis. Perception is a reconstruction of reality (G. Haken, M. Haken-Krell, 2002). It follows from this that teaching to see means teaching to recreate images from details. Psychophysiologists have established that perception, firstly, is subject to | formal laws common to all systems (cybernetic); secondly, it constantly self-organizes.

In order to “remake an image,” for example, during training, you need to convey the ability to see details (analyze) and the ability to “assemble” a whole from these details. At one time, the characteristics of the territory were given by the method of component-by-component analysis. Subsequently, this method was condemned for so long, in opposition to the complex, landscape vision of the territory (which, in fact, lies in the ability to recreate the whole from parts), that it almost disappeared from school textbooks and is leaving universities. Another extreme has arrived. But this is a two-pronged process: without analysis there can be no synthesis. We hope that this manual will help with this, that is, it will help “see.”

It is possible to master or develop something new, to carry out joint work with representatives of related or distant scientific fields only by thoroughly mastering the basics of your own discipline, building on this foundation everything that is required to achieve your goal.

In conclusion, once again about field research. They are irreplaceable. No matter how much we read the literature, no matter how much we study the most beautiful maps, aerial and space photographs, photographs, we will not get a complete, comprehensive geographical understanding of the object of study. Only through field work and subsequent careful processing of materials (of course, using the experience of our predecessors) have we achieved

We strive to ensure that our models (graphic, text, mental and others) will be more or less adequate to geographical reality.

The field shapes the novice researcher. Depending on the landscape setting in which the future scientist began his field research or in which landscapes he mostly worked, in to a large extent depends on the nature of his scientific thinking, theoretical views, and conceptual constructions. That is why, while giving primary attention to studying one region, it is always useful to work in others. This expands your geographical horizons and allows you to free yourself from limited (sometimes not entirely correct) ideas.

>>Geography: We will learn about global forecasts, hypotheses and projects

We learn about global forecasts,

hypotheses and projects

1. Global forecasts: two approaches.

Scientists have developed a lot global forecasts of human development for the near and distant future. They reveal two fundamentally different approaches which can be called pessimistic and optimistic. The pessimistic approach was especially pronounced in global scenarios, developed in the 70s. participants in the so-called Club of Rome 1. It followed from them that already in the middle of the 21st century. Many of the Earth's natural resources will be completely depleted, and environmental pollution will reach catastrophic levels. As a result, a global resource, environmental, food crisis will occur, in a word, “the end of the world,” and the population of our planet will gradually begin to die out. Such scientists began to be called alarmists (from the French alarme - Alarm). A lot of alarmist literature has appeared in the West.

In this sense, the very titles of the books of bourgeois futurologists are characteristic: “Limits to Growth”, “Strategy of Survival”, “Humanity at a Turning Point”, “Closing Circle”, “Abyss Ahead”, “Overpopulation Bomb”, etc. The general mood of these works was reflected in the following parody published in one of the Western publications: “Soon the last person will use last drops oil in order to boil the last pinch of grass and fry the last rat.”

1 Roman Club- non-governmental international organization on forecasting and modeling the development of the world system and studying global problems of humanity. It was founded in 1968 in Rome by representatives of 10 countries. Scientists, public figures publish their research in the form of reports to the Club of Rome.

In the 80s in world futurology there has been a shift in favor of a more optimistic assessment of the future. Scientists who adhere to this approach do not deny that the global problems of humanity are very complex. In 1987 International Commission on Environmental Issues, in its report “Our Common Future”, issued a serious warning about the possibility ecological crisis and development crisis.

But nevertheless, scientists proceed from the fact that the bowels of the Earth and World Ocean still conceal many untapped and undiscovered riches, that traditional ones will be replaced by new resources, that scientific and technological revolution will help improve ecological balance between society and nature, and the modern population explosion is by no means an eternal phenomenon. Main way They see solutions to global problems not in reducing population and production, but in social progress humanity in combination with scientific and technological progress, in warming the global political climate and disarmament for development.

Many environmental and economic forecasts appeared in the 90s. According to economic forecasts. During the first one and a half decades of the 21st century. the number of post-industrial countries will increase. The countries of the “golden billion” will continue to provide the most high level life. The “train” of the countries of the South will accelerate, and at the same time there will be further differentiation into richer and poorer countries, which has already begun to emerge today. Accordingly, the economic gap between North and South will decrease somewhat, especially if we take into account absolute and share indicators. But the gap in per capita indicators GDP will remain very significant. Geopolitical forecasts are also compiled. .

2. Global hypotheses: what do scientists argue about?

Some aspects of the future development of mankind are reflected in global scientific hypotheses.

You already know about the scientific hypothesis greenhouse effect, put forward by domestic and foreign scientists who predict global climate change as a result of its progressive warming.

Indeed, over the last hundred years average temperature on Earth has risen by 0.6 O C. Calculations show that with the development of the greenhouse effect, it can increase by 0.5 O C every ten years and this will lead to many negative consequences.

If there were an increase in global temperature even by 3-4 O C, climatic zones would have shifted hundreds of kilometers, the boundaries of agriculture would have advanced far to the north, and permafrost would have disappeared over vast areas.

Northern Arctic Ocean V summer time would be ice-free and accessible for navigation. On the other hand, the climate of Moscow would be similar to the current climate of Transcaucasia. The equatorial zone in Africa would move to the Sahara region. The glaciers of Antarctica and Greenland would melt, as a result of which the World Ocean, “overflowing its banks” (its level would rise by 66 m), would flood the coastal lowlands, where 1/4 of humanity now lives.

Such alarmist forecasts were made in the 60s and 70s. According to current forecasts, until the middle of the 21st century. The average global temperature will not rise that much, and the rise in sea level will apparently be measured in tens of centimeters. However, even such a rise in ocean levels could be catastrophic for a number of countries, especially developing ones. . (Task 9.)

Another interesting scientific hypothesis is a hypothesis for stabilizing the Earth's population. Such stabilization (or simple replacement of generations), corresponding to the fourth stage of the demographic transition, should occur provided that the average life expectancy of men and women is about 75 years, and the birth and death rates are equal at 13.4 people per 1000 inhabitants. Currently, most demographers adhere to this hypothesis. But there is no unity between them on the issues of at what level and when such stabilization will occur. According to the prominent Soviet demographer B. Ts. Urlanis (1906-1981), it will occur at the level of 12.3 billion people, starting from the middle of the 21st century (Europe, North America) and ending with the first quarter of the 22nd century. (Africa). The judgments of other scientists form a “fork” of 8 to 15 billion people.

Another scientific hypothesis is the hypothesis of Oikumenopolis (or world city), which will arise as a result of the merger of megalopolises. It was put forward by the famous Greek scientist K. Doxiadis.

3. Global projects: caution is required!

There are also many engineering projects for restructuring the nature of large regions of the Earth - the so-called global (world) projects. Most of them are connected with the World Ocean.

Example. Back at the beginning of the twentieth century. a project was put forward to build a dam in the Strait of Gibraltar with a length of 29 km. In the middle of the twentieth century. Projects have been proposed to build dams in the Bering Strait. American engineers developed the project energy use and even the turn of the Gulf Stream. . There is a project to create an artificial sea in the Congo Basin.

Some of these projects can still be called science fiction. But some of them are obviously technically feasible in the era of scientific and technological revolution. However, one cannot ignore the possible environmental consequences of such interference of modern technical power in natural processes.

Maksakovsky V.P., Geography. Economic and social geography world 10th grade : textbook for general education institutions

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IN this document work is presented on developing the ability to predict in students in class and in extracurricular activities. The stages of implementation and ability to forecast, analysis of results, methodological means for developing forecasting activities, stages and techniques for solving forecasting tasks are presented.

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Malenkova L.A., geography teacher, Secondary School No. 6, Nefteyugansk

Speech at the Ministry of Geography on the topic: “Formation of the ability to predict in students in the classroom and during extracurricular activities» .
Today we all take part in the implementation of the concept of modernization of Russian education. Therefore, when determining my role, my goals and objectives, I proceeded from the social order stated in the Concept.
“A developing society needs modernly educated, moral, enterprising people who can independently make responsible decisions in a situation of choice, forecasting their possible consequences..."
The ability to forecast helps students feel the significance of their work, anticipate the development of geographical phenomena, plan research, carrying it out in stages (form a hypothesis, make a proposal), introduces them to an understanding of global problems, and contributes to the development of real-life educational opportunities the majority of students and increases their level of independence and creative activity.Answering the question: “What can I, as a geography teacher, do while fulfilling a social order?” - I determined task: "organize educational process, allowing students to develop the ability to predict.” Thus, purpose of my work: student with the skill of forecasting.

How can I achieve this goal?
-use of methods for solving forecasting tasks;
-use of Internet technologies;
-organization of extracurricular activities at non-governmental educational institutions, electives;
- application of the ability to compare.

What does this look like in practice?
To develop students’ ability to predict, I created a system of measures that includes the following stages.

Stages of implementing the ability to predict:
Stage 1– situation analysis (September)
Stage 2 – development of a system of measures to develop the ability to forecast (October)
Stage 3 – practical implementation of a system of measures to develop forecasting skills (October-May)
Stage 4 – diagnostics of the level of development of this skill (2 times a year)
At stage 1 I determine the conditions under which it is possible to achieve the goal, I study the state and quality of students’ ability to predict (I conduct 1 section on topics)
At stage 2-3:
1 – motivation (interest), analysis of tasks, their analysis (slice)
2 – understanding the essence of forecasting and the rules for its implementation (drawing up an algorithm)
3 – identifying the level of development of students’ ability to predict ( didactic techniques: tasks in writing, heuristic conversation).
The ability to predict depends on the level of development of students, the complexity of tasks, and their nature.
4 – creating conditions for practice (a task is given: for example, in groups) using the ability to predict in the classroom and homework, in oral responses and written works; when solving cognitive problems
5 – accumulation of forecasting experience
6 – transfer from one subject to another and to extracurricular activities (use of forecasting skills in different conditions to solve problems)
1-2 quarter – all stages
3-4 quarter – practice, diagnostics
Analysis of implementation results(May):
- what new ideas, difficulties, mistakes, conditions for its most effective application;
Nr: - contributes to the development of real learning capabilities of the majority of students and increases the level of their independence and creative activity
- the readiness of individual students to develop the ability to predict
- make the transition from the theoretical level to the practical.

The most difficult level of requirements to master asks the student to make a development forecast geographical event or phenomena. The category “predict” is expressed through specific educational and cognitive actions that students perform duringcurrent and final control.

Prognostic activity- this is special specific type cognitive (cognitive) activity of a person, requiring certain preparation (initial skill), mental effort, volitional, emotional stress, psychological desire to search.

So, to clarify features predictive activity of schoolchildren and conditions for effective management its development during the learning process school geography I enter the main onesconcepts and terms, used in the theory of prognostics.

Forecast is a probabilistic judgment about the state of any studied object or phenomenon in the future.
Forecast as a species term is defined through more general terms:foresight and prediction. With foresight the forecast is based on theories unknown to many wide circles. Prediction simpler than foresight, based on such procedures mental activity, How:description and explanationthe expected state of an object or phenomenon.
Foresight has severalforms of specification:1) premonition (simple anticipation); 2) prediction (complex anticipation); 3) forecasting (research)

Geographic forecast - anticipating changes in the development of various natural, industrial, social, natural-social systems

Depending on the goals of the research, forecasting can be:forecast in environmental managementis a prediction of the dynamics of change natural resource potential and needs for natural resources; Andforecast of environmental impact– is the prediction of changes in the natural environment that occur as a result of direct and indirect impacts on it economic activity.

The forecast isforecasting result: this is a set of techniques that allow you to make a reliable judgment about the future state geographical feature or process.

When making a geographic forecast I use the following methods:
1) Retrospective Forecasting– predicting the future based on a detailed study of the past state of the system
2) Geographical analogy. For the forecast, the possible similarity of one better studied system with another less studied system is used.
3) Expert assessments. When making a forecast, the opinions of expert specialists are taken into account.

4) Simulation . Based on the creation of a space-time model of the system using methods of mathematical statistics.

To provide prognostic activityschoolchildren in the process of teaching geography I:
1) I carry out forecasting for different levels complexity, step by step.
2) When designing predictive activities in the lesson system, I take into account different types geographic forecasting.
3) In the process of solving a forecasting task, I guide the student to select the adequate content of the forecasting method task.

At designing the learning processI focus ondedicated levelspredictive activity in the structure of education.
1) Preliminary levelcarried out in the form predictions ; achieving this level requires less mental effort from students, but at the same time contributes to the development cognitive interest to the subject of study.
2) First main levelcarried out in the form predictions ; achieving this level requires students tomental effortrelated to the search for convincingtheoretical provisions, on the basis of which a prognostic judgment is built. In this case we use the methodsexpert assessments And retrospective.
3) Second main levelcarried out in the formconcretization of foresight; This is the most complex level of activity, which requires not only mental effort, but also intuition. At level 2 we use methods analogies and simulations .
The maximum cognitive and developmental effect is provided by training, where all levels are considered in interconnection, arranged from simple to complex. With this approach, the implementation of this technology in practice contributes to the targeted development prognostic function geographical thinking.

Main methodical meansdevelopment of predictive activity of schoolchildren are educational assignments , which vary in degree of complexity and ensure the development of the actions of prediction, forecasting and forecasting itself (foresight)
When constructing tasks of this kind, I use the followingactivity algorithm.
Algorithm for design and use in the learning process educational assignment prognostic type.
1.Membership, structuring theoretical knowledge educational topic already studied in the educational process.
2. Selection, development of a learning situation in which this or that part of theoretical knowledge will be used.
3. Deformation of the situation (breaking a certain geographical connection) in order to create uncertainty regarding the relevant knowledge.
4. Formulating a question regarding a deformed situation.
5. Offering a task to the student.
6. Involving students in the process of solving a prediction problem.
7. Monitoring the correctness of the problem solution; identifying difficulties in independent search or collective mental activity; identifying the need for a hint.

In addition, I take into account the stages and techniques for students solving a predictive task.
On first stage I communicate the conditions of the problem, analyzing which students are involved in its solution. Getting started second stage problem solving, students using thematic maps, textbook text, other sources of information, collect data to solve the problem, then formulate hypotheses . After clearly formulating the hypotheses, I organize third stage solving a problem - checking the correctness of hypotheses (arguments), where I suggest that students find additional factual data in previously prepared texts, schematic drawings and explain the theoretically observed picture. At the third stage of solving the problem, I try to avoid students from having to present additional data in a reproductive manner; the message of “experts” or analysis of different texts in groups. Discussion of new additional information convinces students of the correctness of the correct assumption, on the basis of whichthe final prognostic judgment is formulated.
Success of the solutionpredictive learning situationdepends largely on the ability of students to compare, generalize, and systematize previously studied material so as to form a prognostic judgment .

When constructing prognostic tasks, I mean that the restructuring of the geographic envelope and regional geosystems is measured on a geological scale and lasts millennia. ANDChanges in local geosystems can occur before human eyes (for example: the formation of quarry and dump complexes, overgrowing of swamps, etc.). That is why I choose them as important objects of forecasting.

I define three possible levels formation of the ability to predict:
Level 1 – the student finds it difficult to put forward a hypothesis and search for arguments
Level 2 – puts forward arguments that partially prove the hypothesis
Level 3 – puts forward arguments proving the correctness of the hypothesis
Control sectionsI will check the level of development of forecasting skillsonce every six months, For example:
In 6th grade
Task 1 on the topic “Lithosphere”
- What happens if Ural Mountains located latitudinally in the north of Eurasia?
Task 2 on the topic “Hydrosphere”
- Make a forecast of possible changes inland waters KHMAO-Yugra as a result of human economic activity.
IN 8th grade
Task 1 on the topic “ Altitudinal zone»
- Your forecast: if the Khibiny and Caucasus mountains were swapped, what would the set of altitudinal zones look like?
Assignment 2 on the topic “Nature management and conservation”
- Do you think that a person’s dependence on natural conditions. Give reasons and justify your answer.
V 10th grade
Task 1 on the topic “World Population”
- Think about how the share of the working-age population will change in economically developed and developing countries in 20-30 years. What problems will be aggravated by such a change in quantity? labor resources?
Task 2 on the topic “Africa”
- Make a forecast economic development countries North Africa based on effective and rational use their natural resources. Which North African countries do you think have the greatest prospects for successful development? Why?

Classes		Exercise 1			Task 2
	Level 1	Level 2	Level 3	Level 1	Level 2	Level 3

When solving forecasting tasks I useComputer techologiesFor:
- demonstration of materials: visual aids and maps;
- independent work students.
For example: for a lesson on the topic “Rivers” in 6th grade, I prepared a presentation while solving the task “Is it possible in the future to build a hydroelectric power station on the Ob River?”
On the topic “Volcanoes” in 6th grade – “Do you think they can territory of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug will there be volcanoes in the future?
Research
Based on the Concept of Education, which provides for the formation of research skills based on the systematization of knowledge, analysis andforecasting, I develop in students the ability to predict trends in the development of the environmental situation in the city in extracurricular activities within the framework of non-state educational institutions. For several years, NOU students and I have been working on the topic “The state of the human environment and its impact on public health”: the students spoke at the city conference “Step into the Future” on the topic “Atmospheric pollution over the city of Nefteyugansk and its impact on public health” (3rd place ); took part in the conference in Surgut; on the topic “The impact of drinking water quality on the health of the population of Nefteyugansk.” I'm currently working on the topic " Sanitary condition soils and health of the population of Nefteyugansk.” The result of the students’ work will be the compilationenvironmental forecast for city development.

Contributes to the formation of the ability to forecastelective on the topic "Country Studies"
When studying nature, population, economy large countries, features of life and economic activity in various natural conditions, students perform various forecasting tasks: they reveal changes in environmental management practices, the dynamics of growth environmental problems individual countries and their decisions in the future, predict the main trends in the development of natural, socio-economic and environmental processes in relation to specific countries.
For example :
- Predict whether it will change age composition population of Germany?
- Make a forecast of the economic development of Brazil based on the rational use of natural resources.
Formation of forecasting skillsstudents both in class and extracurricular activities occur on the basiscomparison skills. For this purpose, I compiled a pedagogical search program “Formation of meta-subject skills in students: comparison». This technique is aimed at studying essential features, but by comparing objects with each other. It helps to deepen and clarify the material being studied. Thus, the objects being studied are learned much more fully. This technique provides an optimal result in shaping the thinking of schoolchildren, including when making forecasts. I use different typescomparison tasks:
A) - independent workafter completing the topics; 7th grade - comparison of PP by 40° parallels in Eurasia and North America
b) –educational worksfor comparison: 6th grade – “By physical map world, determine the area of ​​which continent or continents would change the least if the level of the World Ocean rose by 200 meters. Give arguments."
8th grade: - How will the population of the Russian Federation change in 2020 compared to now?
- Predict whether the composition of the labor force in our district will change?
V) -comparison exercisesaccording to the model (algorithm): Grade 6 – Explain how igneous and sedimentary rocks differ. Using the necessary maps, determine the similarities and differences in the location of the Mississippian Lowland and the Western Siberian Plain. Suggest whether their location will change in 250 million years. Give reasons for your answer.
G) -not complicated research papers ; for example, on the topic “Climate of your area” (comparison by month: September and February).

Every year, NOU students take part in the conference " Step into the Future ", have diplomas and certificates.

Dear users! In this chapter, you will learn about forecasting, forecasting, geographic forecasting and forecasting, forecasting methods, global, regional and local geographic forecasting.

In the process of his economic activity, a person is interested not only in the currently existing natural conditions, he is also concerned about changes that may occur in the future. Consequently, the study and preliminary forecasting of natural conditions are also of great importance from the point of view of meeting human needs. By studying the chapters of this topic, you will become familiar with the concept of geographic forecast, its methods, types and issues of assessing changes in the natural complexes of Uzbekistan.

Concept of geographical forecast

Forecasting the state of the geographic envelope in the future, scientific substantiation of issues of preventing the harmful effects of human activity on the natural environment in scientific and technological revolution are one of the priority tasks of modern geography.

In science, the ability to foresee and predict phenomena or changes in the state of an object that may occur in the future is called a forecast.

On modern stage development there are concepts of forecasting and forecasting. Forecasting is the process of collecting data about changes in the state of the phenomenon or object being studied. The forecast represents the final result of the research obtained as a result of the forecast. In principle, a forecast is understood as a characteristic of the future state of the object or phenomenon being studied.

Geographic forecasting is the process of collecting and accumulating information about the development and changes in the natural and socio-economic environment.

Geographic forecast is understood as a scientifically based prediction of the main directions of changes natural environment and territorial production structures.

IN Lately, as a result of the accelerating pace of scientific and technological development, scientific research in the field of forecasting is also being carried out intensively. The time required for implementation has been sharply reduced scientific ideas into practice, which of course increased the scale of the impact on the environment. As a result, the time for the reverse influence of the environment on humans has also changed. And this influence usually carries negative character. And the ability to predict such cause-and-effect processes in nature now becomes even more important. Otherwise, ecological disasters from the category of local are moving to regional and global. Let us take the tragedy of the Aral Sea as an example.

Geographic forecasts are carried out in several ways. For example, a riverbed change project Siberian rivers and sending them to Central Asia and Kazakhstan was developed in several options, taking into account possible environmental consequences. There were 5-6 options, from which the most optimal was subsequently selected, on the basis of which all calculations were carried out.

Geographic forecasts are compiled for periods of different durations, accordingly distinguish the following groups: operational forecast (compiled for one month), short-term (from one month to one year), medium-term forecast (from 1 year to 5 years), long-term (from 5 years to 15 years), ultra-long-term (over 15 years) .

To carry out a natural geographic forecast, the properties of the components of natural complexes to be assessed are determined. Relief, rocks, soil, water, vegetation and animal world each region are strictly specific. All information reflecting these properties of the components of natural complexes is widely used in the process of geographic forecasting.

Relief. Depressions accumulate technogenic products (waste). Hills, on the contrary, contribute to their dispersion. The slopes of the foothills are capable of providing positive or bad influence on the density of these products, their ability to break down, and their behavior when released into groundwater.

Rocks. Water-permeable and waterproof rocks, their thickness affects the state of the external environment.

Water. What matters is the amount of organic substances dissolved in it, the annual volume and flow rate. The higher the flow speed, the faster the water pollutants are carried away. Organic substances dissolved in water contribute to the rapid dissolution of heavy metals.

The soil. Redox, acid-base conditions. They determine the soil’s ability to self-purify.

Plants. Species that absorb harmful (pollutant) substances. Taking into account the above properties, it is possible to predict changes in the external environment.

Remember!

Geographic forecast is understood as a scientifically based prediction of the main directions in changes in the natural environment and territorial production complexes.

Geographic forecasting is the process of collecting and accumulating information about the development and changes in the natural and socio-economic environment.

Do you know?

Let's imagine what will happen if the average temperature rises by 3-4°C. There will be a shift in climatic regions of hundreds of kilometers, the boundaries of agriculture will be reached northern regions, the glaciers will melt. The ice of the Arctic Ocean will disappear in the summer, which will create favorable conditions for navigation. On the other hand, the climate of Moscow and surrounding areas will be similar to the current climatic conditions of Transcaucasia. The equatorial zone will move north, towards the Sahara. The ice of both Antarctica and Greenland will melt, which will entail an increase in sea level by 66 m, and, consequently, this circumstance will cause 25% of the land to go under water.

According to UN experts, the world's population will reach 7 billion by 2010, 8.5 billion by 2025, and may reach 10 billion by 2040.

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