Very interesting article, which contains short reviews of the most interesting theories, concerning our uniqueness (or non-uniqueness) in this vast Universe.
While some are traditionally amazed by the epic beauty and grandeur of space, I personally fall into a state of existential crisis.
But physicist Enrico Fermi asked the question: “Where are all the other intelligent life forms?”
The starry sky seems overwhelmingly huge, but in fact we can only see the immediate surroundings. IN best night we see about 2,500 stars (out of about 100 billion in our galaxy), and almost all of them are less than 1,000 light years away from us (that's about 1% of the diameter milky way). So we look at this:
There are approximately 10²² stars in the Universe, meaning for every grain of sand on Earth there are 10,000 stars. What if we produce some simple calculations, we learn that in our galaxy alone there should be about 100,000 intelligent civilizations.
If this is the case and at least some of them send radio waves, or laser beams, or some other signals to contact others, they could already be detected, for example, by the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) Organization.
But there were no signals. No one. Never.
It's even stranger: our Sun is relatively young by the standards of the Universe. There are much older stars with much older Earth-like planets, which theoretically means there are more advanced civilizations. For example, let’s compare our Earth (4.5 billion years) and the hypothetical planet X (8 billion years).
Welcome to the Fermi Paradox.
All hypothetical solutions to this paradox can be divided into 2 large groups:
1. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF HIGHER CIVILIZATIONS, BECAUSE HIGHER CIVILIZATIONS DO NOT EXIST!
For scientists in this group, the likely reason for the absence of other life forms is the so-called “Great Filter.”
The Great Filter Theory states that at some point in life before Civilization III type, life encounters a certain “wall” that slows down the evolutionary process or ceases to exist altogether. She is the very Great Filter.
If so, then big question: Where on the timeline is the Great Filter? This is a fundamental question for humanity: based on the answer, we have three ways of self-determination - we are unique, we are the first, or we are finished.
WE ARE UNIQUE (The Great Filter is Behind)
There is hope that we left the Great Filter behind - we managed to survive it and even get to our current level of intelligence - which probably explains why there is no Type III civilization. But if we are so special, then what exactly made us so - that is, what exactly were we able to overcome that others were stuck on?
One option: The Great Filter could have been there at the very beginning - maybe it was he who laid the beginning of life on Earth. This is possible because the emergence of life took about a billion years of the planet's existence and because all our attempts to somehow reconstruct this event in laboratories have failed. If it's all about the Great Filter, then this means that another life is impossible in principle.
Another option: The Great Filter is a leap from a simple prokaryotic cell to a complex eukaryotic one. After the emergence of prokaryotes, it took them 2 billion years to acquire a nucleus and become complex. If this is the Great Filter, then the Universe is simply teeming with prokaryotes, and there is nothing else there.
There are other assumptions - for example, some consider our leap from semi-intelligent life (chimpanzees) to intelligent life (humans) to be the Great Filter.
If we really are that special, it may not only be the result of an exceptional biological event, but also something called the Unique Earth Hypothesis. It says that while there are other planets similar to Earth, only ours has certain conditions favorable for life.
WE ARE FIRST
For the first group of thinkers, if the Great Filter is not behind us, then we have hope that conditions in the Universe have only recently reached a level since the Big Bang that would allow intelligent life to develop. In this case, we and many other species are still on the path to super-intelligence, and no one has simply achieved it yet. We ended up here in right time to become one of the supercivilizations.
WE ARE DONE (The Great Filter Ahead)
If we are neither unique nor the first, then the scientists of this group conclude that the Great Filter awaits us in the future. This means that life regularly develops to the level where we are, and then something prevents more high development intelligence - and we will not be an exception.
One possible future Great Filter is a regularly occurring natural event, such as a gamma-ray burst, which could suddenly and overnight wipe out life on Earth. Another candidate for filters is the inevitability of the fact that almost all intelligent civilizations destroy themselves upon reaching a certain technological level.
This is why Oxford University philosopher Nick Bostrom says that “no news is good news.” Opening simplest life on Mars will have catastrophic consequences, since it will cut out a number of potential Great Filters behind us, and accordingly, predict the presence of one of them directly ahead.
2. HIGHER CIVILIZATIONS EXIST, BUT WE DO NOT KNOW ABOUT THEM FOR A NUMBER OF REASONS
This group of scientists rejects any claims about our uniqueness, and, on the contrary, adheres to the Principle of Commonness. It says that there is nothing unusual in our galaxy, solar system, planet or level of development until proven otherwise. They also suggested that the absence of signals from higher life forms does not prove that they do not exist - given the fact that we can only receive signals at a distance of about 100 light years (about 0.1% of the galaxy).
Here are 10 more reasons why we may not know about brothers in mind:
1. Superintelligent life could visit Earth, but before our appearance.
Maybe we already were - but at an early stage of development. Written history dates back only to 5500 - a group of ancient hunter-gatherers may have had an unforgettable experience of contact with extraterrestrial races, but they did not know how to tell their descendants about it.
2. The galaxy has long been colonized, we just live in the universal wilderness.
North and South America were colonized by Europeans long before a small tribe of Inuit in remote Northern Canada realized it. Perhaps for higher species It is simply impractical and pointless to populate the part of the galaxy where we live.
3. The very concept of colonization is ridiculously unacceptable to higher species.
Even a Type II civilization with all the energy of its star could create for itself an ideal environment that would satisfy all its needs. There is simply no need for her to leave her happy utopia for the sake of exploring a cold, empty, undeveloped universe. An even more advanced civilization might reconsider the entire physical world as a horribly primitive place, overcome its own biology, and upload its brain into virtual reality, eternal heavenly life. Honestly speaking, thinking about a life form that has achieved immortality in this way, I envy it immensely.
4. There are terrible predators of civilization, and more intelligent, peace-loving species simply prefer to keep their heads down and not show any signs of life.
This nasty guess explains why we don't receive any signals. This also means that it is incredibly naive and risky for us to try to accept and respond to them. There is currently debate about whether we should send signals to extraterrestrial life forms, and most people say that there is no point in doing so. Stephen Hawking warns us that "a visit from aliens will have the same consequences for us as Columbus's landing in America did for the Native Americans."
5. There is only one instance of the highest form of life - a civilization of “superpredators” (like people here on Earth) - they exterminate everyone who has reached a certain level of development. It's sad and it might work in the following way. They do not exterminate all intelligent forms because many will die out on their own. But if a civilization reaches a certain point, beyond which it can spread and grow like a virus, then superbeings make their move. The one who was the first intelligent species in the galaxy now simply leaves no chance for anyone else.
6. There is a lot of activity and all sorts of noise around, but our technology is too primitive, and we listen to the wrong things.
If you walked into modern office building and tried to pick up signals on the radio, you would hear nothing and assume that the building was empty, while hundreds of employees would be communicating text messages. Or perhaps, as Carl Sagan noted, our minds work faster or slower than those of other species: for example, it takes them 12 years to say “Hello,” but we perceive it as white noise.
7. We have contact with another intelligent life, but the government is hiding it.
This is a stupid theory, but I had to mention it because it gets talked about a lot.
8. Higher civilizations know about us and watch us (“Zoo Theory”).
Perhaps superintelligent civilizations exist in a tightly regulated galaxy, and our Earth is seen as part of a vast and protected national park with a strict "Look but don't touch" rule for other planets like ours. We wouldn't notice them because more developed species would know a way to observe us without informing us. Perhaps there is some kind of rule, like the Prime Directive from Star Trek, that prohibits more advanced forms from communicating with less developed ones until they reach a certain intellectual level.
9. Higher civilizations are here, around us. But we are too primitive to notice them.
Michio Kaku puts it this way: “Suppose there is an anthill in the middle of the forest. And a ten-lane superhighway is being built right next to it. So the question is: will the ants be able to figure out what it is? Will they understand the technology and the intention of the beings who built it? So not only can we not receive signals from Planet X using our technology, we cannot even notice what they are doing near us. This is so far from us that if they wanted to enlighten us, it would be like teaching ants to use the Internet.
10. We are completely mistaken in our ideas about reality.
The universe may actually be something of a hologram. Or perhaps we are aliens, planted here as an experiment or for fertilizer. There is even an assumption that we are all part computer simulation researcher from another world, and other life forms are simply not programmed by this simulation.
As we continue our probably fruitless search for extraterrestrial intelligence, I'm not entirely sure I want to know the truth. Honestly, both accepting our official solitude and having to join someone else are equally creepy. All of these surreal scenarios described above are mind-boggling.
Beyond its shocking sci-fi component, the Fermi Paradox left me deeply humbled. Not just the usual “Oh yeah, I’m a grain of sand and my life lasts 3 seconds” that the Universe usually calls out. This is a sharper, more personal humility. As I studied all these crazy theories of the best scientists of our time, I thought that the next generations will look at us the same way we look at ancient people today and say: “Wow, they had no idea that is really happening!”
In the 1920s, several studies were conducted about the possible presence of other civilizations in space. And on their basis, it was even hypothesized that there is an alien probe in the solar system from several star systems: for example, from the constellation Bootes and others...
In turn, V. Psalomshchikov, candidate of physical and mathematical sciences, writes that at the end of the 30s of the last century, several German radio specialists went to the Himalayas to establish reliable radio communications between Germany and Japan. On the way to their destination, the Germans recorded strange radio signals, which were transmitted in a strange “unearthly” language. At least no one could decipher the messages recorded on tape.
Signals sent from unknown satellite, for some unknown reason that ended up in Earth's orbit, was recorded by NASA specialists in 1959. And in 1960, a group of astronomers led by Frank Drake recorded clear coded pulses with a frequency of about 8 Hz coming from the region of the terrestrial star Tau Ceti. The signal came within 5 minutes...
Strange signals were also recorded by the astronauts of one of the American Apollo missions during the lunar program. They worked in radio mode, had a certain structure and could well correspond to the signals of some intelligent civilization.
An intermittent second signal coming from the center of our Galaxy - from the region of the constellation Sagittarius 37 - was recorded in 1977. Its power was 30 times greater than background radio noise. Moreover, the contours of the diagram of this signal resembled the word “Wow”. Subsequently, the head of the SETI program, R. Dixon, stated that “this is not a spacecraft or an echo of a satellite. It undoubtedly has an intelligent source and bears all the signs of origin from an advanced civilization.”
In the early 1980s, observers at the Hat Creek radio astronomy station (USA) using a 26-meter radio telescope detected ten strange signals that resembled artificial ones. However, their origin has not yet been clarified, just as the signals themselves have not been deciphered.
And literally at the end of the twentieth century, in 1994, during the fall of the Shoemaker-Levy comet that made a lot of noise on Jupiter, radio telescopes picked up a very powerful modulated signal, which, most likely, was addressed to an unknown object outside the solar system. The signal was detected purely by chance: at that time the Earth happened to be right in the side lobe of this radio transmission. When the third fragment of the comet fell, the radio signal stopped...
It should be said that not only the vast space sends clear signals, which are picked up by earthly equipment. So, back in 1955, using new equipment, which at that time had very high sensitivity, American astronomers detected modulated radio signals from Jupiter at a wavelength of 13.5 meters. Their structure was similar to pulses from special-purpose earth radio stations operating in pulse code modulation mode. Subsequently, Jupiter sent strange signals more than once and to different waves. For example, these signals were recorded at a wave of 20 meters.
And in 1980, the Voyager 1 automatic station detected a strange signal at a wave of 1714 meters, sent from Saturn. The radiation from this unknown source varied according to a rather complex law. The second radio source, which sent a signal exactly once per Saturnian day (10 hours 39 minutes), identified Voyager 2.
It turns out that infinite universe regularly informs earthlings that they are not alone.
EXOPLANETS AND LIFE
By the beginning of 2011, astronomers knew about 500 Earth-like exoplanets. Most of these objects are massive bodies, since they are much easier to find. And only in Lately Among exoplanets, smaller planets similar to Earth began to be detected. And we can say with a high degree of confidence that luminaries from other galaxies have acquired their own planets, but they have not yet been discovered due to the enormous distances.
Apparently, it makes sense to recall that exoplanets are planets that orbit stars outside the solar system. Typically, exoplanets are extremely small and dim compared to their stars, and the stars themselves are far from the Sun: for example, the nearest one is 4.22 light years away.
That's why for a long time it was impossible to detect such bodies. Today, they are easily detected using various indirect detection techniques. Most known exoplanets are gas giants similar to Jupiter.
In this host of exoplanets, astronomers greatest attention are given to those of them that are located in the so-called habitable zone. This definition in astronomy was given to the region around a star where conditions are favorable for the emergence and development of life.
In the Solar System, the habitable zone is that part of space that is located at a distance from 0.95 AU. up to 1.37 a.u. from our luminary.
In addition to the fact that the exoplanet must be in a “comfortable” zone for the emergence of life, it is also necessary that it have conditions similar to those on Earth. So, it must have a hard surface. Although it is hardly worth denying the existence of such life forms that can fly within atmospheres gas giants or swim in the depths of the oceans. After all, there are a huge number of such species on our planet: birds, insects, marine organisms...
Secondly, for the emergence of life, both an appropriate temperature and the absence of radiation harmful to living matter are required. Availability of water is a must. average temperature on the surface of exoplanets should be from 0 °C to +100 °C.
And as most astrophysicists and biologists believe, only a space object with such environmental conditions can harbor living matter.
But to find something like this heavenly body- not an easy task. It is possible that it is even much more difficult than finding a needle in a haystack. But it seems that luck was on the side of the astronomers. American researchers working at an observatory in the Hawaiian Islands announced back in the fall of 2010 that they had discovered a new exoplanet, named Gliese 58lg. It is located near the star Gliese 581 in the constellation Libra, approximately 20 light years from Earth.
The exoplanet has many advantages that allow it to claim to be a carrier of extraterrestrial life. So, Gliese 58lg is located in the habitat zone, and almost directly in the center: it is not too hot and not very cold, and, most likely, there is liquid water. None of the known exoplanets has such unique environmental conditions.
What is this mysterious Gliese 58lg? Here is a brief portrait of it: radius - from 1.2 to 1.5 Earth radii, mass - from 3.1 to 4.3 Earth masses, orbital period around the star Gliese 581 - 36.6 Earth days. Acceleration free fall on the surface 1.1-1.7 times more than on Earth. The average temperature on the surface of Gliese, 58lg, is estimated by scientists to be between -31 and -12 degrees Celsius, while the actual surface temperature is -34 degrees Celsius on the night side and +71 degrees Celsius on the sunny side. The exoplanet Gliese 58lg has so optimal conditions for life, that several famous astronomers immediately declared that there must be life there, at least in some form.
On this occasion, Paul Butler, a fellow at the Carnegie Institution in Washington, said: “Life on other planets does not necessarily mean the presence of intelligent beings there. But even single cell bacterium or mold can change our ideas about the uniqueness of life on Earth. In any case, today there is no better candidate for the cradle of extraterrestrial life."
A little earlier, in 2007, two exoplanets were already recorded near Gliese 581, named “c” and “d”. But, unlike Gliese 58lg, their living conditions are not so favorable. So, one of the planets is five times heavier than the Earth, the other is seven times heavier. And they are located at the edges of the habitat zone. If we extrapolate to the Solar System, then planet “c” is located in the place of Venus, and “d” is located in Mars. But “g” is located just between them, like the Earth. In terms of the location and number of planets (6 are known today), the Gliese system is in many ways reminiscent of the Solar system.
To conclude the conversation about the mysterious exoplanet Gliese 58lg, I would like to mention the following fact.
Encouraged by discoveries in the region of Gliese 581, in 2007 Ukrainian and Russian astronomers sent a welcome signal to the star using a very large radio telescope in Crimea. According to estimates, the message should reach the addressee in 2028. If the aliens understand the information received immediately and send an answer without delay, then earthlings will receive it in 2049.
But astronomer from the University of Western Sydney Raghbir Batal, who works at SETI, assures that aliens have already tried to let us know about themselves. Judging by his statements in the British press, back in December 2008 he caught a strange light signal from the Gliese 581 region. That is, even before the habitable planet 58lg was discovered there. But then everyone forgot about Batal’s message, since the second signal did not follow the first one.
The exoplanet Gliese 58lg is located near the star Gliese 581 in the constellation Libra at a distance of approximately 20 light years from Earth
TO HOME
Creation artificial satellites and exploration of the depths of space have further increased human interest in age-old question the possibility of the existence of life in other worlds of the Universe.
Within our solar system, Mars appears to be the only planet, on which conditions for organic life may also exist. But since the climate of the tundra Northern Siberia and the peaks of the Himalayas will seem mild compared to the climate of Mars. It is hard to believe that organic life, if it exists there at all, could achieve more high level development. “Martians” currently only exist in science fiction novels.
However, although the possibility of existence in the solar system of creatures with a civilization in some way resembling ours is very unlikely, we cannot exclude the possibility of the existence of such a civilization on a planet orbiting some other star. Of course, this may seem like nothing more than free thinking, but the thinking is far from uninteresting.
Are stars surrounded by planets?
At the heart of this problem is the question: Are other stars surrounded by planets? We cannot give a definite answer to this question. To show how difficult it is to give an exact answer, let's imagine a model of our solar system, where the Sun is an orange, and the Earth is a grain of sand located 9 m from it. Then the distance between this orange and the orange representing the nearest star is equal to the distance between France and New York. Determining whether a star is surrounded by planets is as difficult as viewing a dark grain of sand 9 inches from an orange in France from an observation post in New York—an impossible task even with the best astronomical instruments.
Opinions about the existence of other solar systems have changed accordingly as concepts about the origin of our own solar system have changed. Recall that proponents of the collision theory believed that our solar system was created as a result of the collision of the Sun with another star several billion years ago. However, since the probability of two stars colliding is as small as the probability of an orange thrown in a random direction from New York colliding with an orange in France, we can conclude that, given all the probability, only a few of the hundreds of billions of stars in our Galaxy would collide In a similar way. Thus, when the collision theory prevailed, it was thought that the number of solar systems similar to ours must be very small, and even those few exist in completely various parts Galaxies.
The impact theory then gave way to the more plausible proposal that our solar system was the result of a process directly related to the origin of the Sun. And although we are still far from complete agreement about the origin of the solar system, the prevailing assumption is that it was not the result of an exceptional celestial phenomenon, but absolutely normal process associated with the formation of a star. It follows that many stars - perhaps most of them - may be surrounded by planets with approximately the same characteristics as the planets orbiting our Sun. This means that it is very likely that there is a planet somewhere that has physical and chemical characteristics, similar to those on Earth, and revolving around a star similar in size to the Sun.
The next question is whether it is possible for organic life to appear in any form on such a planet. Arrhenius's teaching about the possibility of spreading life through space with the help of "spores" does not find many followers. Rather (as we have shown above), it is generally accepted - as the Russian scientist Oparin and others have suggested - that the simplest living systems on Earth arose as a result of the formation of the most complex carbon compounds from inorganic matter under the influence of solar radiation and other phenomena. According to this point of view, the origin of life was a completely natural phenomenon under the conditions that existed on Earth several billion years ago, when the simplest living creatures appeared. Moreover, it is not improbable that life may have originated under conditions similar to those existing on Mars, and it is quite possible that life exists on a planet orbiting another star, provided that both physical and chemical structure similar to earthly.
If these theories are correct, we can assume that of the hundreds of billions of stars in our Galaxy, several billion - or at least several tens or hundreds of millions of stars - are surrounded by planets inhabited by living organisms. Did the development of life on one of these planets follow a path similar to that on Earth? Did a long chain of complications operate in the same way? Did a human-like creature emerge as a result? And if so, will we be able to make contact with these creatures?
Thanks to advances in rocket science, we can build spacecraft that can reach Mars, and in the not too distant future we hope to discover whether life actually exists there. At present this does not seem likely. Venus is, without a doubt, uninhabited. The time is not far off when travel to other planets in our solar system will become possible, but the hope is to find more tall forms There is very little life within our solar system. Traveling to a planet similar to Earth in another solar system is so difficult due to the need to cover enormous distances that we do not yet see a way to achieve it. A spaceship sent beyond our solar system at a speed modern satellites or space probes, it will take about 100,000 years to reach the nearest star. And even if the speed could be increased 100 times - which would be huge technical achievement- such a journey would take a thousand years. Therefore, the application modern means does not give us the opportunity to launch an automatic astronaut for the purpose of exploring space around nearby stars.
It is possible to establish the existence of life on planets and distant solar systems only if evolution has led there to the emergence of thinking beings with highly developed radio communications and rocket science. It is theoretically possible that audible signals from a radio transmitter located on a planet from another solar system in our part of the Universe could reach us. Such a transmitter would have to have high power, however, only sufficient for the radio beam to be aimed directly at our Solar System. Conjectures have been made about what wavelength these imaginary creatures would choose and what kind of signals they would send if they believed that we existed and had sufficient radio communications to receive their signals. If we actually received such signals and built a giant radio transmitter to respond to them, two-way communication could be achieved, although this is quite difficult. Since radio waves travel at the speed of light, the signals would take 4 years to reach the nearest star. Thus, at least 8 years would pass before we would receive a response to a telegram sent to the planet orbiting this star. However, it is highly unlikely that our closest neighbors would be willing to come into contact with us. More likely is communication across a distance of, say, 100 light years; then we would have to wait 200 years for an answer. If as a result of the highest degree With the development of intelligence, we were able to decipher the received signals, then an interesting exchange of information could occur.
Another possibility of contact would arise if the inhabitants of a distant planet were so advanced in rocket science that they could send a cosmic liaison with whom we would communicate on close range. Similar reasoning formed the basis of stories about “flying saucers.”
But since we have never heard radio signals from distant planets or detected ships sent from them, we have absolutely no evidence that such a distant civilization exists. The question of whether one can believe in its existence must be answered by biologists, sociologists and historians. If we assume that there are many planets suitable for life in our Galaxy, what is the probability of 1) the appearance of life on them and 2) its development along the path of the emergence of such complex organism, As a person? No biologist can answer this question. A detailed study of biological development may shed light on it. Was it really pure chance that decided the emergence of each new stage of this development: the appearance of the simplest living aggregates, cells, multicellular creatures, their increasingly complex descendants, and, finally, humans? Or biological development moved in the only possible way the right way? And after man has developed and his communities have arisen, when they become necessary science and technology that allows a person to measure distances to the stars and dream of conquering them? Was this a chain of accidents so unique that, in all likelihood, it could only happen in a single place, namely on Earth and nowhere else in the entire Galaxy? We do not yet have sufficient knowledge about the ways of development and the life of society to determine whether we are the only ones in the Universe.
The idea that we might someday be able to make contact with intelligent beings on other astronomical bodies is so tempting that it is difficult to ignore. Surely we will see more than once in the press reports about radio signals and “plates” from afar, but the likelihood of their veracity is very low. Even if distant civilizations do exist, the obstacles to establishing communication with them are so great that in the near future descriptions of the life of distant worlds can only be expected from writers endowed with a rich imagination.
Enrico Fermi, one of famous physicists 20th century, was very interesting personality. This man was one of the few physicists who achieved success in both theoretical and practical area. Moreover, “few” is said very mildly; Among the entire scientific world, people who have achieved such success in these practically incompatible concepts can be counted on the fingers of one hand. Chain reaction, beta decay, first in the world nuclear reactor- not far full list cases that were not only justified by him, but also brought to life.
In addition, Fermi was interesting because he constantly generated new ideas in a wide variety of areas, often very far from his element - nuclear physics. One day, talking with his colleague, Edward Teller, Fermi drew his attention to the fact that there is a lot of indirect evidence and arguments for the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations, however, there is not a single more or less reliable trace of their presence.
In fact, this later became known as the “Fermi paradox.” At the time of its formulation (1950), it was simply a witty physical pun - humanity did not yet have sufficiently advanced means of exploring the Universe, and it seemed that over time, this paradox would be resolved either in favor of the version that aliens do exist, or vice versa, that We, intelligent beings, are one of a kind, a creation of nature.
However, development human resources knowledge, on the contrary, further deepened and sharpened the conditions of the paradox. It turned out that there are not just many potential opportunities for the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations, but an infinite number. For example, the Kepler telescope, examining only a quarter of a percent of the area of the celestial sphere, discovered more than 1,000 planets around nearby stars and about 4,000 planet candidates. Even if we assume that one planet out of 1000 is inhabited, then the number of intelligent civilizations in the Galaxy is in the tens of thousands! However, we still do not have any direct evidence of the existence of aliens or any traces of them.
But that's not all. The most amazing thing about the Kepler story is that its practical results, obtained no more than 10 years ago, were theoretically predicted by the American astronomer Drake in the middle of the last century. This is a unique case in the history of astrophysics when a theory built on pure probability theory with many assumptions was almost completely confirmed.
What happens in the end? On the one hand, we have more and more evidence that there must be other civilizations, but on the other hand, no matter how we try to find concrete evidence of their existence, the arguments against it are more and more categorical. This reminds me of something gambling, when the stakes are increasing more and more, but none of the players can win.
Many even have the impression that someone is preventing earthlings from seeing their “brothers in mind.” And, I must say, this impression has a certain basis. The fact is that modern science, as soon as he encounters some new phenomenon, he is often very skeptical about any alternative interpretations of this very phenomenon. And there is, in fact, nothing wrong with this, since the scientific method is based on critical thinking and quite large quantities skepticism. However, when it comes to space exploration and extraterrestrial life, this approach is quite extreme.
Let's consider modern physics. In the latest trend last century– string theory, as many as 5 hypotheses are considered, completely contradictory friends friend, but their positions are hotly debated and, most importantly, these studies are sponsored. Or, for example, computer science: the study of hypothetical quantum computers(which haven't even been completed yet) mathematical apparatus) billions of dollars in grants are being spent, although the results are not only far away, but it is generally unknown whether they will be... And so on. There are a lot scientific directions, in which many studies are carried out, even though they are futile. And only in matters of searching for contacts with other intelligent beings, all initiatives, as they say, are cut down in the bud.
One can, of course, argue that SETI and similar programs have been created to search for extraterrestrial civilizations, that observations are being carried out, and so on. But, after all, these are all means of passive observation, and in order to be noticed, we must somehow be active ourselves... Humanity is further than a dozen “messages to aliens” using radio telescopes, and two “Voyagers” launched beyond the solar system, so far didn't "indicate".
In general, in a serious way scientific world many scientists treat people involved in the search for extraterrestrial civilizations as fools inventing a perpetual motion machine. Well, or to those who think the Earth is flat. That, against the backdrop of tens of thousands of possible inhabited systems, the probability of whose existence is very high, is, to put it mildly, strange.
There is another interesting trend. As soon as more or less “acute” information about some supernatural phenomena appears somewhere, government officials immediately appear there and close access to all public information about these phenomena. There are a lot of such cases: from the disappearances or deaths of all kinds of tourists, such as the Dyatlov group, to the censoring of video recordings of the Apollo flight to the Moon.
A separate category is represented by technical means, information about which is kept in top secret. For example, quite by accident in 2008 it became known about two American spy satellites, built on the principle orbital telescope Hubble, however, has much higher performance. The Ministry of Defense immediately stated that these were satellites that monitored any suspicious activities of various terrorist groups. However, this explanation seems unlikely, since observing the Earth’s surface with a telescope of this design is, to put it mildly, inconvenient.
And so on and so forth. All advanced states have a lot of mysterious equipment that supposedly has a “military” purpose and is therefore classified. But even an analysis of minimal facts, made widely public, says that the purpose of these objects is not military at all, and their imaginary “secrecy” is simply a way to divert attention and discourage the curious from asking too many questions.
If we consider the chronology of the emergence of such prohibitions and strange circumstances, the picture turns out to be quite interesting: almost all such restrictions were introduced relatively recently, no more than 15 years ago. In 2006, data on Hubble flights was partially classified, in 2008 - data on all “strange” phenomena recorded by American pilots in the atmosphere, in 2007 - on the results of almost all flights of the Apollo missions.
By the way, about Apollo. In 2006, NASA announced the loss of 700 (seven hundred!) boxes of video and photographic materials filmed by astronauts near the Moon and directly on its surface. Moreover, NASA could not answer any convincing arguments why the records, which are clearly the property of all mankind, disappeared, saying only that “it was not us who kept it, but the Gotthard Center - so ask them.”
What happened in the world? Why are both scientists, politicians and government officials so concerned about issues that, by and large, no one really cared about before?
And this is what happened. In 2002, Bruce Campbell and Steve Young, for the first time in human history, obtained evidence of the existence of planets outside the solar system. Then, literally four years The presence of almost three dozen such planets was confirmed. Well, then Kepler appeared, which finally proved Drake was right about the number of planets in star systems.
And just recently, in April 2017, former head NASA Charles Bolden said that for a long time the governments of many countries have known about the existence of aliens. And all efforts aimed at classifying “inconvenient” information are just an attempt to keep this fact secret for as long as possible, since the realization that we are not alone in the Universe can have a very negative impact on our future...
Considering all of the above, we can safely say that the Fermi paradox, once jokingly expressed by him, has been resolved in favor of supporters of extraterrestrial life. And although there is still no direct evidence, too many coincidences indicate that we are not alone. Very soon, perhaps in the next century, we will be able, if not to make contact with other forms of life, then at least to be reliably convinced that they exist.
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If this level of development is difficult to believe, do not forget that Planet X has a level of development 3.4 billion years higher than ours. If the civilization on Planet X was similar to ours and was able to develop into a Type III civilization, it is logical to assume that by now they had definitely reached interstellar travel, and perhaps colonized the entire galaxy.
One hypothesis for how galaxy colonization might occur is to create a machine that can fly to other planets, spend 500 years or so reproducing itself using the planet's raw materials, and then send two replicas to do the same. Even without traveling at the speed of light, this process would colonize an entire galaxy in just 3.75 million years, an instant in terms of billions of years of planetary existence.
Let's continue to think. If 1% of intelligent life survives long enough to become a potential galaxy-colonizing Type III civilization, our calculations above suggest that there must be at least 1,000 Type III civilizations in our galaxy alone - and given the power of such civilizations, their presence is unlikely would go unnoticed. But there is nothing, we see nothing, hear nothing, no one visits us.
Where is everyone?
Welcome to the Fermi Paradox.
We don't have an answer to the Fermi Paradox - the best we can come up with are "possible explanations". And if you ask ten different scientists, you will get ten different answers. What would you think of the people of the past who discuss whether it is round or flat earth, does the Sun revolve around it or does it revolve around it, does almighty Zeus give lightning? They seem so primitive and dense. The same can be said about us discussing the Fermi paradox.
Looking at the most discussed possible explanations for the Fermi Paradox, it is worth dividing them into two large categories- those explanations that assume that there are no signs of civilizations of types II and III, because they simply do not exist, and those that assume that we do not see or hear them for some reason:
I group of explanations: there are no signs of higher civilizations (types II and III), because no higher civilizations exist
Those who adhere to Group I explanations point to what is called the non-excludability problem. She rejects any theory that states: "There are higher civilizations, but none of them tried to contact us, because they all ...". Group I people look at the math, which says there must be thousands or millions of higher civilizations, so at least one must be an exception to the rule. Even if the theory supports the existence of 99.9% of higher civilizations, the remaining 0.01% will be different, and we will definitely know about it.
Thus, adherents of the first group of explanations say, super-developed civilizations do not exist. And since calculations say there are thousands of them in our galaxy alone, there must be something else. And this is something else called .
The Great Filter Theory states that at a certain point from the very beginning of life to Type III civilization there is a certain wall against which almost all attempts in life hit. This is a certain step in a long evolutionary process, through which life practically cannot pass. And it's called the Great Filter.
If this theory is correct, the big question remains: at what point in time does the Great Filter occur?
It turns out that when it comes to the fate of humanity, this issue becomes very important. Depending on where the Great Filter occurs, we are left with three possible realities: we are rare, we are the first, or we are screwed.
1. We are rare (The Great Filter is Behind)
There is hope that the Great Filter is behind us - we managed to get through it, and this will mean that it is extremely difficult for life to develop to the intelligence of our level, and this happens extremely rarely. The diagram below shows that only two species have done this in the past, and we are one of them.
This scenario could explain why there are no Type III civilizations... but it would also mean that we may be one of the few exceptions. That is, we have hope. At first glance, it looks the same as people thought the Earth was at the center of the universe 500 years ago - thought they were special, and we might think so today too. But the so-called “observation selectivity effect” says that regardless of whether our situation is rare or quite common, we will tend to see the former. This leads us to accept the possibility that we are special.
And if we are special, when exactly did we become special - that is, what step did we take where others get stuck?
One possibility: The Great Filter could have been at the very beginning - so the very beginning of life was extremely unusual event. This option is good because it took billions of years for life to finally appear, and we tried to repeat this event in the laboratory, but we did not succeed. If the Great Filter is to blame, this will mean not only that there may not be intelligent life in the Universe, it will mean that there may not be life at all outside of our planet.
Another possibility: The Great Filter could be a transition from simple prokaryotic cells to complex eukaryotic cells. Once prokaryotes are born, they need at least two billion years before they can make the evolutionary leap to become complex and acquire a nucleus. If this is the whole Great Filter, it may indicate that the Universe is teeming with simple eukaryotic cells and that’s it.
There are a number of other possibilities - some even believe that even our latest leap to our current intelligence could be a sign of the Great Filter. Although the leap from semi-intelligent life (chimpanzees) to intelligent life (humans) does not seem like a miraculous step, Steven Pinker rejects the idea of an inevitable "ascent" in the process of evolution: "Because evolution does not set a goal, but simply happens, it uses adaptations that will benefit specific ecological niche, and the fact that it led to technological intelligence on Earth can in itself indicate that such a result natural selection very rare and not a usual consequence of the evolution of the tree of life.”
Most horse races are not considered candidates for the Great Filter. Any possible Great Filter would have to be a one-in-a-billion thing, where something incredibly weird would have to happen to provide a crazy exception - which is why the transition from single-celled to multicellular life is not taken into account because on our planet alone it occurred 46 times in the form of isolated events. For the same reason, if we find fossilized eukaryotic cells on Mars, they will not be a sign of the Great Filter (and neither will anything else that happened up to that point in the evolutionary chain) - because if it happened on Earth and Mars, then it will happen where something else.
If we are truly rare, it could be due to a strange biological event, and also due to what is called the "rare Earth" hypothesis, which says that there may be many Earth-like planets with Earth-like conditions, but separate conditions on Earth - specifics of the Solar system, connection with the Moon ( big moon rare for such small planets) or something in the planet itself could make it extremely friendly to life.
2. We are the first
Group I believers believe that if the Great Filter is not behind us, there is hope that conditions in the Universe are very recent, for the first time since Big Bang, became such that they allowed intelligent life to develop. In this case, we and many other species may be on the path to superintelligence, and it's just that no one has gotten there yet. We found ourselves in in the right place at the right time to become one of the first superintelligent civilizations.
One example of a phenomenon that could make this explanation possible is the prevalence of gamma-ray bursts, the giant explosions we see in distant galaxies. Just as it took the young Earth several hundred million years before the asteroids and volcanoes died down, opening the way for life, the universe may have been filled with cataclysmic events like gamma-ray bursts that burned out anything that might occasionally become life, up to a point . We may now be in the middle of the third astrobiological transition stage, where life can evolve for such a long time without anything stopping it.
3. We are finished (The Great Filter Ahead)
If we are not rare and not the first, among the possible explanations of group I is that the Great Filter is still waiting for us. Perhaps life regularly develops to the threshold on which we stand, but something prevents it from developing further and growing to higher intelligence in almost all cases - and we are unlikely to be an exception.
One of the possible Great Filters is a regularly occurring catastrophic natural event like the aforementioned gamma-ray bursts. They may not be over yet, and it is only a matter of time before all life on Earth suddenly divides into zero. Another candidate is the possible inevitability of self-destruction of all developed civilizations after reaching a certain level of technology.
This is why Oxford University philosopher Nick Bostrom says that "no news is good news" The discovery of even the simplest life on Mars will have devastating consequences, because it will cut down a number of possible Great Filters behind us. And if we find fossils difficult life on Mars, according to Bostrom, "it would be the worst news in the history of mankind printed in a newspaper" because it would mean that the Great Filter would almost certainly be ahead. Bostrom believes that when it comes to the Fermi Paradox, "the silence of the night sky is golden."
Group II of explanations: civilizations of types II and III exist, but there are logical reasons why we do not hear them
The second group of explanations gets rid of any mention of our rarity or uniqueness - on the contrary, its followers believe in the principle of mediocrity, the starting point of which is that there is nothing rare in our galaxy, solar system, planet, level of intelligence until evidence indicates otherwise. They are also hesitant to point out that the lack of evidence of higher intelligence is evidence of their absence as such - and highlight the fact that our search for signals extends only 100 light years away (0.1% of the galaxy). Here are ten possible explanations for the Fermi Paradox from a Group II perspective.
1. Superintelligent life has already visited Earth, long before we showed up. In this scheme of things, living people have existed for about 50,000 years, which is relatively short. If contact occurred before this, our guests simply plunged into the water alone, and that was that. Also, recorded history only goes back 5,500 years - perhaps a group of ancient hunter-gatherer tribes encountered some unknown extraterrestrial crap, but found no way to remember or record the event for future descendants.
2. The galaxy is colonized, but we just live in some kind of desert rural areas. Americans may have been colonized by Europeans long before a small Inuit tribe in northern Canada realized it had happened. There may be an urban moment in the colonization of the galaxy when species congregate in a neighborhood for convenience, and it would be impractical and pointless to try to contact anyone in that part spiral galaxy, in which we find ourselves.
3. All concept physical colonization - funny idea from antiquity for more advanced types. Remember the image of a Type II civilization in a sphere around its star? With all this energy, they could create the perfect place for themselves that would suit everyone's needs. They could incredibly reduce the need for resources and live in their happy utopia, instead of exploring a cold, empty and undeveloped Universe.
An even more advanced civilization might see the entire physical world as a horribly primitive place, having long ago conquered its own biology and uploaded its brains into virtual reality, a paradise for eternal life. Living in the physical world of biology, mortality, wants and needs might seem primitive to such creatures, just as life in the cold, dark ocean seems primitive to us.
4. Somewhere out there there are predatory, scary civilizations, and the most intelligent life knows that broadcast any outgoing signal, thereby giving away its location, extremely unwise. This annoyance could explain the lack of any signal received by SETI satellites. It could also mean that we are just naive newbies who are foolish enough to risk giving away our location. There is a debate about whether we should try to contact extraterrestrial civilization, and most people come to the conclusion that no, it’s not worth it. warns: “If aliens visit us, the consequences will be worse than when Columbus landed in America, which obviously was not very good for the Native Americans.” Even Carly Sagan (who firmly believed that any advanced civilization that mastered interstellar travel would be altruistic rather than hostile) called the METI practice “grossly unwise and immature” and recommended that “newborns in a strange and incomprehensible space sit and listen quietly for a long time, patiently learning and absorbing before screaming into an unknown we don’t understand.”
5. There is only one representative of the highest intellectual life - civilization of "predators"(like people here on Earth) - which is much more advanced than everyone else, and is kept afloat by destroying any intelligent civilization as soon as it reaches a certain level of development. That would be extremely bad. It would be extremely unwise to destroy civilizations by wasting resources on this, because most of them would die out on their own. But after a certain point, intelligent species can begin to multiply like a virus and soon populate the entire galaxy. This theory implies that whoever populates the galaxy first will win, and no one else has a better chance. This could explain the lack of activity, because it would reduce the number of superintelligent civilizations to one.
6. Somewhere out there there is both activity and noise, But our technologies are too primitive and we are trying to hear the wrong thing. You walk into a modern building, turn on the radio and try to hear something, but everyone is sending text messages, and you decide that the building is empty. Or, as Carl Sagan said, our minds can work many times slower or faster than the minds of other intelligent forms: it takes them 12 years to say “Hello,” but when we hear it, it’s white noise to us.
7. We are in contact with intelligent life, but the authorities are hiding it. This theory is completely idiotic, but we have to mention it.
8. Higher civilizations know about us and are watching us(“zoo hypothesis”). As far as we know, superintelligent civilizations exist in a tightly regulated galaxy, and our Earth is considered something of a national reserve, protected and large, with a "look but don't touch" sign. We don't notice them because if intelligent species If he wanted to watch us, he would know how to hide from us with ease. Perhaps there really is some kind of "prime directive" from Star Trek that forbids superintelligent beings from having any contact with younger species until they reach a certain level of intelligence.
9. Higher civilizations are here, around us. But we are too primitive to perceive them. Michio Kaku explains it this way:
“Let's say we have an anthill in the center of the forest. A ten-lane expressway was built next to the anthill. The question is: “Will ants understand what a ten-lane highway is? Will the ants be able to understand the technology and intentions of the creatures that are building the highway next to them?
So not only can we not pick up signals from Planet X using our technology, we can't even understand what the beings on Planet X are doing. For them to try to enlighten us would be like trying to teach ants how to use the Internet.
This could also answer the question: "Well, if there are so many incredible Type III civilizations, why haven't they contacted us yet?" To answer this question, let's ask ourselves: when Pizarro was on his way to Peru, did he stop at anthills to chat? Was he being generous in trying to help the ants in their difficult affairs? Was he hostile and stopped from time to time to burn the hated anthills? Or did he really not care? Same thing.
10. We are completely mistaken in their ideas about reality. There are a lot of options that could completely divide our ideas by zero. The universe may be something like a hologram. Or we are aliens, and we were placed here as an experiment or fertilizer. There is even a chance that we are all some kind of scientists from another world, and other life forms simply were not programmed to appear.
As our journey continues, we continue to search for extraterrestrial intelligence, it is not entirely clear what to expect. Whether we find out that we are alone in the Universe or officially join the galactic community, both options are equally creepy and equally mind-blowing.
Beyond its shocking science fiction component, the Fermi Paradox leaves people with a deep sense of humility. This is not the usual “I am a microbe and I live for three seconds” that arises when thinking about the Universe. The Fermi Paradox leaves a clearer, more personal humility that can only emerge after hours spent studying the most incredible theories presented by the best scientists, which constantly turn the mind upside down and contradict one another. He reminds us that future generations will look at us the same way we look at the ancient people who thought the stars were screwed to a wooden firmament and wonder, “Wow, they really had no idea what was going on.”
All this hits our self-esteem along with conversations about type II and III civilizations. Here on Earth, we are kings of our own little castle, proudly ruling over the handful of fools who share the planet with us. And in this bubble there is no competition and no one will judge us; we have no one to discuss the problem of existence with except ourselves.
All this suggests that we humans are probably not so smart, we are sitting on a tiny rock in the middle of a deserted Universe and have no idea that we can make mistakes. But we may be wrong, let's not forget about it in our attempts to justify our own greatness. We have no idea that somewhere out there there is a story in which we can’t even imagine the letters - a period, a comma, a page number, a bookmark.
Based on materialsWaitButWhy.com