In order to understand what technologies will be like
civilizations separated from us by thousands, or even millions of years, physical
ki classify civilizations based on their energy consumption
And the laws of thermodynamics. Scanning the sky for signs of ra-
intelligent life, physicists are not looking for little green men, but for volumes
projects with energy production corresponding to Type I civilizations,
II and III. This hierarchy was proposed by the Russian physicist Nikolai
Kardashev in the 1960s to classify radio signals from
possible civilizations in outer space. Everyone's civilization
type is characterized by emitting a form of radiation that
can be measured and cataloged. (With the help of modern
equipment can even detect a highly developed civilization
tion that is trying to hide its presence. According to the Second
law of thermodynamics, any highly developed civilization will create
entropy in the form of used heat, which will inevitably go into
Open space. Even if this civilization tries to disguise-
to hide your presence, it will be impossible to hide the faint glow,
created by their entropy.)
Type I civilization is a civilization that uses pla-
non-contained forms of energy. Energy consumption of such a civilization
can be accurately measured: by definition, it uses all the quantities
quality solar energy, falling on the planet, or 10 16 watts. At
the help of this planetary energy, such a civilization is under the power of con-
troll or adjust the weather, change the course of hurricanes or
build cities in the oceans. Such civilizations are real
masters of their planet and are called planetary.
Type II civilization has exhausted the energy of one planet and
uses the power of the entire star, or approximately 10 26 watts. Such
civilizations can consume the entire energy output of their star and,
could probably control solar flares
kami and set fire to other stars.
Type III civilization has exhausted the energy of one solar
system and colonized vast areas of its home galaxy
tics. Such a civilization can use energy from 10 milli-
ards of stars, the power of which is estimated to be on the order of
10 36 watts.
Each civilization type increases the energy used
the previous type, 10 billion times. Although the gap between the three
the types of civilizations presented may seem astronomical
miraculously large, it is still possible to approximately calculate the time
necessary for the transition to a civilization of the third type. Let's say
Energy consumption by civilization is growing by an average of 2-3% per year.
(This is a very plausible assumption, since economic
growth, which can be accurately calculated, is directly related to
with energy consumption. The bigger the economy, the more
she needs energy. Since the growth of gross domestic product
ta (or GDP) of many countries is within 1 -2 %
per year, you can
expect energy consumption to grow at approximately the same rate
speed.)
At such a modest pace, we can estimate that modern
Our civilization will need 100-200 years to achieve
status of civilization of the first type. We will need from 1000 to 5000
years to become a type 2 civilization, and probably from 100,000
up to 1,000,000 years to achieve the status of a third civilization
type. On this scale, our civilization can be classified as zero
type, since we get energy from dead plants (oil and
coal). Even controlling hurricanes that carry the force of hundreds
nuclear bombs, is beyond our technological capabilities
possibilities.
To describe modern civilization, astronomer Carl Sagan
proposed to create gradations of smaller scales for types of civilizations
headquarters We have seen that the civilizations of the first, second and third
types generate a total energy power of the order of 10 16, 10 26 and
10 36 watts respectively. Sagan introduced a uniform logarithmic
scale, according to which a civilization, say type 1.1, generates
10 17 watts of power, civilization type 1.2-10 18 watts, and so on.
By breaking each type into ten smaller subtypes, we can begin
drink to the classification of our own civilization. According to this
scale, our modern civilization is close to type 0.7, which
still go and go to the real planetary civilization of the first
type. (In terms of energy production, a civilization of the first type
still a thousand times superior to a civilization of type 0.7.)
Although our civilization is still quite primitive, we have already
We see signs of a beginning transition to a higher level.
Newspaper headlines scream about this all the time (even if not directly)
historical revolution. In fact, I even feel proud of
Go, that I am alive and can observe all this:
The Internet is an emerging Type I telephone system.
The Internet has the potential to become the basis of universal
new planetary communication system.
The economy of the first type of society will be dominated by
not individual nations, but large trading blocs like
European Union, which was formed thanks to con-
negotiations with countries that have signed the North American Agreement
free trade agreement (NAFTA).
The language of our society of the first type will probably be
English, which is already in this moment dominates on
The earth is like a second language. Nowadays, in many third world countries, among representatives of the upper classes of the population, as well as those who received higher education, there is a tendency to use in English along with the local one.
The entire population of a civilization of the first type may turn out to be
speaking two languages - local and planetary
Nations, although they will probably continue for centuries to come
their existence in some form, will be little by little
lose their meaning as they are destroyed
trade barriers, and the world becomes increasingly economically
skuyu independence. (Contemporary nations were partly
formed by capitalists, as well as those who wanted a unified
currencies, borders, taxes and laws with which you can
but it would be to conduct a trading business. As trade
becomes increasingly international, national barriers
somewhat lose their meaning.) Not a single nation on Earth
does not have sufficient power to stop this movement
approach to civilization of the first type.
Wars will probably not stop, but their very nature will change.
with the emergence of a planetary middle class, representatives
who will be more interested in tourism and accumulation
wealth and resources than in seizing power over other nations
childbirth and control of markets or geographic regions.
Pollution problem environment will be involved in everything
on a peaceful scale. Emissions into the atmosphere acid rain,
destruction of forests and other similar processes are not known
national borders, violators will be subject to pressure
from neighboring states and will be forced
make amends for the consequences of your actions. Global problems
large scale concerning environmental pollution,
will help accelerate global solutions.
As resources (such as fish catches, crop yields)
cove, water resources) will gradually be depleted due to excessive
measured use land areas and excessive
consumption, there will be an ever-increasing need for dis-
distribution of resources on a planetary scale or do we
will have to face the threat of famine and complete collapse.
Information will become practically free, which will encourage
society towards much greater democracy, and this allowed
to help the oppressed sections of the population find their voice and provide
pressure on dictatorial regimes.
Escape from our universe 347
These forces are beyond the control of individual
dovs or states. The Internet cannot be prohibited by law. In fact,
any such act would have caused laughter rather than horror,
since the Internet represents a path to economic prosperity
ki and science, as well as culture and entertainment.
But in the transition from null type the first one also contains the most
more dangers as we still continue
demonstrate the savagery inherited from our animal
th state. In a sense, the development of our civilization is
race against time. On the one hand, the movement towards planetary cy-
villization of the first type may promise us an era of unprecedented
peace and prosperity. On the other hand, the forces of entropy (greenhouse
effect, pollution, nuclear war, fundamentalism, diseases) all
They can still tear us apart. Sir Martin Rees sees in these
threats, as well as those arising from terrorism,
the creation of bacteria and viruses, the development of bioengineering achievements
ria and other technological nightmares, one of the most complex
problems that have ever faced humanity. Very sobering
his assessment of our chances for successful overcoming this pro-
problems: fifty-fifty.
This may be one of the reasons why we do not observe foreign
planetary civilizations in space. If they really exist
exist, then perhaps they are so developed that they are of little interest
our primitive society is type 0.7. Or maybe they were killed
wars or our own pollution during that period of time
me when they sought to achieve the status of the first civilization
type. (In this sense, the current generation may turn out to be
the most important of all that ever walked on the surface of the Earth,
It is this generation that will decide whether we successfully make the transition to
civilizations of the first type.)
But, as Friedrich Nietzsche once said, what does not kill, strengthens
lies. Our difficult transition from type zero to type one is certain
will be a trial by fire, which will be accompanied by great
number of terrifying emergency situations. If we can not-
come out of all these troubles damaged, we will become stronger -
similar to how steel is hardened.
Soviet radio astronomer Nikolai Kardashev in the 60s of the last century suggested that civilizations differ in the amount of energy they can use for their needs. This measurement method technological development civilization was proposed by scientists in 1964 and was called the Kardashev scale. This is a hypothetical scale, but it allows us to estimate how far we can go in our development.
In his classic form The scale distinguishes three categories of civilization - type I, II and III. There are also extensions to even more hypothetical civilizations - IV and V. These types of civilizations can absorb and use different quantities energy.
Type I: Planetary Society
This type of civilization uses all the resources available directly on its home planet. She controls all natural forces and phenomena, such as volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. It is also possible that small amounts of energy from a nearby star may be contracted and accumulated.
Type II: Interplanetary Society
A civilization of this level is capable of harnessing all the energy of its star. An example of such a community is a hypothetical civilization - the astro-engineering project of the Dyson sphere. This design is a thin spherical shell with a star in the center. This sphere can absorb energy central star. Civilization is mastering the energy of fusion, which gives power to the stars. Such a civilization can capture neighboring planets, and the huge amount of energy it has at its disposal makes it itself invulnerable.
Type III: Interstellar Society
This type can use all the energy of his galaxy. The species living in this civilization become galactic travelers, they can move from star to star, capturing energy and colonizing planets. It is most likely that the highest level of development in such a society will be cyborgs, and people will become the lowest subspecies. Colonies of self-reproducing robots will grow to millions and spread throughout the galaxy, capturing star after star.
Kardashev thought that Type IV would already be too advanced, so he only identified three. But some other theorists, such as Michio Kaku, Robert Zubrin and Carl Sagan, went further.
Type IV: Intergalactic Society
A civilization of this type is able to control all the energy of its Universe. Superior Races can overcome the accelerating expansion of the Universe and live inside supermassive black holes. Representatives of such a civilization could do amazing things that would make them superhuman. For example, they could change the structure of spacetime or intentionally slow down entropy.
Interesting
Hi all! Today I want to tell you about several scales that are used to evaluate various phenomena. In our lives, such scales surround us everywhere - from the Celsius scale for measuring temperature to the Richter scale for measuring the energy released during an earthquake. In addition to them, there are several rather exotic scales, the knowledge of which you can show off to your friends on occasion.
Kardashev scale
The Kardashev scale is used to determine the level of development of civilization. This is a theoretical value and it is very specific, since the total energy consumption for the entire civilization is used as the measured value. The scale was proposed in 1964 by Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev, and initially there were only three main “divisions” - I, II and III. A civilization of the first type is one that has mastered everything energetic resources of your planet. A civilization of the second type has mastered the resources of its star system (in our case - solar system), and the third type – its own Galaxy. Science fiction writers expanded this scale to type IV (mastered the energy of the Universe) and type V (ability to use and master the energy of all Universes). Because of large gap between divisions it is customary to split them into hundredths, and according to this clarification, now our civilization has an index on the Kardashev scale equal to 0.72. Calculations have shown that we will achieve a solid one no earlier than 2100, two – 3100, and we will probably get three in 100,000 years, or even a million.
Kinsey scale
The developer of this scale, sexologist Alfred Kinsey, tried to express a person’s sexual orientation in numerical terms. There are only seven divisions on his scale - from 0 to 7, zero means exclusively heterosexual inclinations, 6 - absolutely homosexual. In between are various mixed options. According to Alfred, there are no absolutes in nature. pure types sexual behavior, and in every person, attraction to the opposite and same sex is mixed in one proportion or another. How true this is - I don’t dare to judge; today many experts in the field of human sexual behavior claim that the Kinsey scale is very simplified, and human behavior in this area is organized much more complex.
Trout-Uhle scale 
We often call the water in the ocean or river blue, blue, greenish or even emerald. But if we take, for example, the Mediterranean and the Red Sea, where will the water be “more emerald”? How to measure this? In order to be able to determine the value of the transparency and color of water, oceanologist Francois Forel proposed a scale for measuring the color of water, which was improved three years later by the German lake scientist Willi Uhle. To measure the color of water, it was proposed to use 22 bottles of liquid a certain color, which would be alternately compared with the color of the water, and if they matched, the color of the bottle would be numerical value water colors. This is the so-called color index.
Later, another device appeared - the Secchi disk, which is named after the Italian astronomer Petro Secchi, who proposed in 1865 to measure the turbidity/transparency of water using a special graduated disk, which would be immersed in water on a cord, and the length of the cord at which the disk when stopped to be visible in the water was an indicator of turbidity.
The Forel-Uhle scale is quite approximate and is rarely used nowadays. In modern oceanography, the so-called platinum-cobalt scale is more often used, proposed in 1892 by the chemist Alain Hazen, who, for reasons unknown to us, did not call it the Hazen scale :) In this scale, the color of water is compared with the color of solutions of platinum and cobalt salts, and in The concentration of these salts in the sample solution at which its color matches the color of the measured water is used as a digital value. Modern scientists carry out such measurements using computer systems that automatically mix all the necessary solutions, and color comparisons are often carried out using a spectrograph.
Can we answer how this exponential growth in energy availability will continue in the coming centuries and millennia? Physicists, trying to classify civilizations, evaluate them all according to the same criterion: energy consumed. Russian astrophysicist Nikolai Kardashev was the first to introduce such a classification, reflecting on the study of the night sky in search of signals from extraterrestrial (of course, advanced) civilizations.
Kardashev was not satisfied with the vague and vague concept“extraterrestrial civilizations,” and he proposed a quantitative scale by which astronomers could navigate. He understood perfectly well that civilizations can differ radically in culture, social structure, principles of governance, etc., but there is something to which they all must obey: the laws of nature. In addition, it is clear that from Earth we can only record and measure one thing - energy consumption, and civilizations should be classified according to this criterion.
So, Kardashev proposed dividing extraterrestrial civilizations into three theoretical types. Type I civilizations are planetary civilizations, consuming only that portion of the energy emitted by the luminary that falls on the planet (about 1017 W). Type II includes stellar civilizations; they consume all the energy emitted by the star (about 1027 W). Type III includes galactic civilizations that consume the energy of billions of stars (about 1037 W).
The advantage of this classification is that we can quantify the power of any civilization, instead of making general assumptions and guessing from tea leaves. We know the energy output of the corresponding celestial objects and are able to limit each of them to specific numerical limits.
The types differ from each other by ten orders of magnitude, i.e. 10 billion times: a type III civilization consumes 10 billion times more energy than a type II civilization (because there are approximately 10 billion stars in the Galaxy), and it, in turn, consumes 10 billion times more energy than a Type I civilization.
According to this classification, our current civilization belongs to class 0. We are not on this scale at all, because we still get energy from the remains of dead plants, i.e. from oil and coal. (Carl Sagan, generalizing this classification, tried to more accurately assess our position on this cosmic scale. It turned out that we are now a civilization of type 0.7.)
This scale can also be used to evaluate civilizations depicted by writers in science fiction works. A typical type I civilization is the civilization of Buck Rogers or Flash Gordon, where people have control over the energy resources of the entire planet. People control all planetary energy sources, can set or change the weather at will, they have mastered the energy of hurricanes and built cities in the ocean. Their rockets roam space, but their energy sources are largely limited to their home planet.
Type II civilizations include the United Federation of Planets from Star Trek (if we forget about the warp drive), which was able to colonize about a hundred nearby stars. However, the technology of this civilization is only approaching the possibility of manipulating the energy of an entire star.
Type III civilization can perhaps be called the Empire from the saga " star Wars” or maybe the Borg from Star Trek. Both colonized a significant part of their galaxy, capturing millions star systems. They can travel around the galaxy as they please.
(Although Kardashev's classification is based on planets, stars and galaxies, it should be noted theoretical possibility the existence of a type IV civilization that draws energy from extragalactic sources. The only source of energy known to us outside of our Galaxy is dark energy, making up 73% of the matter in the visible Universe, while on visible world stars and galaxies account for only 4%. A possible candidate for a Type IV civilization is the god-like Q from Star Trek, whose power is clearly of supergalactic proportions.)
Using the proposed classification, it is possible to estimate when humanity will reach each of the listed stages. Let us assume that the total GDP of world civilization grows by 1% annually. This is a reasonable assumption when considering human development over the past few centuries. According to this assumption, it takes approximately 2500 years to move from one stage to the next. An annual growth rate of 2% would allow this transition to be completed in 1200 years.
But we can also calculate how much time our civilization will need to reach level I. Despite crises and periods rapid growth, it can be mathematically estimated that when average speed economic growth will be achieved in about 100 years.
Man has always dreamed of finding out whether he is alone in the Universe or whether there are other intelligent beings somewhere who have achieved the highest level development. What could this level be? What is taken as the degree of development of civilization? Many years ago, the answer to this question was given by the Kardashev scale, which allows us to assess the possibilities and upcoming stages of development of the Earth's civilization.
Nikolai Semenovich Kardashev - a man who went down in world history
Nikolai Kardashev was one of the most famous Soviet astrophysicists, who spent most his life in search of extraterrestrial intelligence. He was the first to put forward a theory with a strong evidence base that civilizations replace each other. He believed that even before our civilization there could have been several other branches on the planet that ended their existence after reaching a certain degree of development.
Kardashev admitted that there are also several different civilizations in the Universe that may be beyond our understanding. Together with his colleagues, Nikolai Semenovich actively worked on the classification of the stages of their development. Kardashev's research has inspired astrophysicists to launch various programs to study extraterrestrial intelligence. For example, in the USA, Kardashev’s published works were extremely popular. Based on them, several secret ones were created space programs. The secrecy stamp has not been removed from them to this day.
Kardashev scale: briefly about the development of civilizations
Astrophysicist Kardashev created a special scale that made it possible to classify the level of development of civilization. The scientist put it in direct dependence on the amount of energy consumed. According to this theory, a stable increase in energy consumption by several percent per year makes it possible to extend the transition from one level to another for several tens of millennia.
It is currently not possible to check the Kardashev scale. It is hypothetical, but nevertheless gives an idea of the possibilities for the development of civilization in cosmic scale. Astronomers around the world use the Kardashev scale to search for extraterrestrial intelligence.
Levels of development of civilization according to Kardashev
The Kardashev scale provided only three levels and scenarios according to which the development of absolutely any civilization in the Universe could proceed. Further progress, according to the scientist, was impossible, since civilization reached the maximum level of power and became mega-perfect. To this day, the scale created by the astrophysicist remains unchanged:
- The first type of civilization is planetary. On this level development, intelligent beings use the full potential of their planet. It becomes under their control and can no longer affect the well-being of civilization. Everyone is subordinate to her natural phenomena, including disasters. And energy is extracted from the field of the planet itself and nearby stars.
- Type II civilization on the Kardashev scale is interplanetary. On at this stage completely conquer the energy of their star. On its basis, special structures are created that accumulate and distribute energy. There are no difficulties with thermonuclear energy; it is put at the service of the mind. Civilizations of the second type on the Kardashev scale are actively moving deeper into the Universe and populating other planets. Its power prevents extinction and makes individuals immune to any external influences.
- The third type of civilization is interstellar. By this stage, civilization will be something completely new and perfect. Distant stars and new Galaxies will be available for colonization, and captured and newly discovered stars will become new sources of energy. A type III civilization on the Kardashev scale should change as much as possible; it is a colony of cyborgs that have the ability to self-reproduce. Those who failed to adapt to new conditions and evolve become a defective branch of development and gradually die out.
IN currently The Kardashev scale received an addition in the form of two more stages of development from Western science fiction writers and theorists.
The fourth and fifth stages of development according to Carl Sagan
Many science fiction writers were not satisfied with the three levels to which civilizations can reach in their development. Therefore, they decided to supplement the well-known scale. Their additions are not taken into account by astrophysicists, but are seriously considered by science fiction lovers:
- The fourth level is intergalactic society. Civilization is turning into superintelligent beings. They can use the full potential of the Galaxy and exist freely in black holes. A civilization of the fourth level easily overcomes time and space, and also subjugates them to itself and its needs.
- The fifth level is an interuniverse society. Such a civilization can be characterized from a divine perspective. Intelligent beings control a conglomerate of Universes, penetrate into Parallel Worlds and are able to create matter with the power of thought.
I would like to clarify that these stages of civilization development are quite far from scientifically based scenarios of the distant future.
What level of development is it at today?
Civilizations on the Kardashev scale pass through all levels gradually and quite slowly. But, unfortunately, today we do not even reach the first level of development. Humanity is still in the cradle or, as many scientists call it, at level zero.
We are completely dependent on our planet, depleting its resources and consuming the dead energy of plants and animals. Despite the fact that it has overcome the last five thousand years of the existence of our civilization big way, this is still not enough to rise to the first level, much less become a civilization of the second type.
Can we become a type two civilization?
It is unknown how long it will take humanity to reach the second level of development. And can we rise so high? high level? Modern astrophysicists believe that our civilization needs no more than two hundred years to reach the first level of development on the Kardashev scale. But the founder of this theory himself was not so optimistic in his forecasts; according to his data, humanity needs more than three thousand years to enter the first stage. Of course, if civilization does not exhaust the resources of its planet before this time and does not destroy itself in bloody wars.
Some scientists, observing humanity’s pathological thirst for energy consumption, made a bold assumption that this trend will persist for another five thousand years. Consequently, the transition to a civilization of the second type could be disastrous for humanity itself and threaten the existence of the planet.
It is unknown what humanity will become when it reaches a new level of development, but it will definitely do so. important transition. But it will be a slightly different human civilization.