>>Geography: We will learn about global forecasts, hypotheses and projects
We learn about global forecasts,
hypotheses and projects
1. Global forecasts: two approaches.
Scientists have developed a lot global forecasts of human development for the near and distant future. They reveal two fundamentally different approaches, which can be called pessimistic and optimistic. The pessimistic approach was especially pronounced in global scenarios, developed in the 70s. participants in the so-called Club of Rome 1. It followed from them that already in the middle of the 21st century. many of the Earth's natural resources will be completely depleted, and pollution environment will reach catastrophic levels. As a result, a global resource, environmental, food crisis will occur, in a word, “the end of the world,” and the population of our planet will gradually begin to die out. Such scientists began to be called alarmists (from the French alarme - Alarm). A lot of alarmist literature has appeared in the West.
In this sense, the very titles of the books of bourgeois futurologists are characteristic: “Limits to Growth”, “Strategy of Survival”, “Humanity on turning point”, “Closing Circle”, “Abyss Ahead”, “Overpopulation Bomb”, etc. The general mood of these works is reflected in the following parody published in one of the Western publications: “Soon last man uses the last drops of oil to cook the last pinch grass and fry the last rat.”
1 Roman Club- non-governmental international organization on forecasting and modeling the development of the world system and studying global problems of humanity. It was founded in 1968 in Rome by representatives of 10 countries. Scientists, public figures publish their research in the form of reports to the Club of Rome.
In the 80s in world futurology there has been a shift in favor of a more optimistic assessment of the future. Scientists who adhere to this approach do not deny that the global problems of humanity are very complex. In 1987, the International Commission on Environment, in its report Our Common Future, issued a serious warning about the possibility ecological crisis and development crisis.
But nevertheless, scientists proceed from the fact that the bowels of the Earth and World Ocean there are still many unused and undiscovered riches, that traditional ones will be replaced by new resources, that scientific and technological revolution will help improve the ecological balance between society and nature, and the modern population explosion is by no means an eternal phenomenon. Main way They see solutions to global problems not in reducing population and production, but in social progress humanity in combination with scientific and technological progress, in warming the global political climate and disarmament for development.
Many environmental and economic forecasts appeared in the 90s. According to economic forecasts. During the first one and a half decades of the 21st century. the number of post-industrial countries will increase. The countries of the “golden billion” will continue to provide the highest standard of living. The “train” of the countries of the South will accelerate, and at the same time there will be further differentiation into richer and poorer countries, which has already begun to emerge today. Accordingly, the economic gap between North and South will decrease somewhat, especially if we take into account absolute and share indicators. But the gap in per capita indicators GDP will remain very significant. Geopolitical forecasts are also compiled. .
2. Global hypotheses: what do scientists argue about?
Some aspects of the future development of mankind are reflected in global scientific hypotheses.
You already know about the scientific hypothesis greenhouse effect, put forward by domestic and foreign scientists who predict global climate change as a result of its progressive warming.
Indeed, over the last hundred years average temperature on Earth has risen by 0.6 O C. Calculations show that with the development of the greenhouse effect, it can increase by 0.5 O C every ten years and this will lead to many negative consequences.
If there were an increase in global temperature even by 3-4 O C, climatic zones would have shifted hundreds of kilometers, the boundaries of agriculture would have advanced far to the north, and permafrost would have disappeared over vast areas.
Northern Arctic Ocean in summer it would be ice-free and accessible for navigation. On the other hand, the climate of Moscow would be similar to the current climate of Transcaucasia. The equatorial zone in Africa would move to the Sahara region. The glaciers of Antarctica and Greenland would melt, as a result of which the World Ocean, “overflowing its banks” (its level would rise by 66 m), would flood the coastal lowlands, where 1/4 of humanity now lives.
Such alarmist forecasts were made in the 60s and 70s. According to current forecasts, until the middle of the 21st century. The average global temperature will not rise that much, and the rise in sea level will apparently be measured in tens of centimeters. However, even such a rise in ocean levels could be catastrophic for a number of countries, especially developing ones. . (Task 9.)
Another interesting scientific hypothesis is a hypothesis for stabilizing the Earth's population. Such stabilization (or simple replacement of generations), corresponding to the fourth stage of the demographic transition, should occur provided that the average life expectancy of men and women is about 75 years, and the birth and death rates are equal at 13.4 people per 1000 inhabitants. Currently, most demographers adhere to this hypothesis. But there is no unity between them on the issues of at what level and when such stabilization will occur. According to the prominent Soviet demographer B. Ts. Urlanis (1906-1981), it will occur at the level of 12.3 billion people, starting from the middle of the 21st century (Europe, North America) and ending with the first quarter of the 22nd century. (Africa). The judgments of other scientists form a “fork” of 8 to 15 billion people.
Another scientific hypothesis is the hypothesis of Oikumenopolis (or world city), which will arise as a result of the merger of megalopolises. It was put forward by the famous Greek scientist K. Doxiadis.
3. Global projects: caution is required!
There are also many engineering projects for restructuring the nature of large regions of the Earth - the so-called global (world) projects. Most of them are connected with the World Ocean.
Example. Back at the beginning of the twentieth century. a project was put forward to build a dam in the Strait of Gibraltar with a length of 29 km. In the middle of the twentieth century. Projects have been proposed to build dams in the Bering Strait. American engineers developed the project energy use and even the turn of the Gulf Stream. . There is a project to create an artificial sea in the Congo Basin.
Some of these projects can still be called science fiction. But some of them are obviously technically feasible in the era of scientific and technological revolution. However, one cannot ignore the possible environmental consequences such interference of modern technical power in natural processes.
Maksakovsky V.P., Geography. Economic and social geography world 10th grade : textbook for general education institutions
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4. Geographic forecasting
It is hardly legitimate to begin developing recommendations for optimizing the natural environment for a more or less long term without imagining in advance how geosystems will behave in the future due to their inherent natural dynamic tendencies and under the influence of technogenic factors. In other words, it is necessary to draw up a geographical forecast, the purpose of which, as defined by Academician V. B. Sochava, is to develop ideas about the natural geographic systems of the future. Perhaps the most powerful evidence of the constructive character of geography must lie in the ability of scientific foresight.The problems of geographic forecasting are quite complex and diverse. This was to be expected, knowing about the complexity and diversity of the forecast objects themselves - geosystems different levels and categories. The hierarchy of forecasts and their territorial scales is in strict accordance with the hierarchy of the geosystems themselves. There are different forecasts: local, regional and global. In the first case, the objects of the forecast are the morphological subdivisions of the landscape down to facies, in the second case we are talking about the future of landscapes and regional systems of higher ranks, in the third case we are talking about the future of the entire landscape envelope. It can be argued that the complexity of forecasting problems increases as one moves from the lower levels of the geosystem hierarchy to the higher ones.
As is known, any geosystem is relatively more low level functions and develops as component systems of higher ranks. In practice, this means that the development of a forecast of the “behavior” in the future of individual tracts should be carried out only against the backdrop of the enclosing landscape, taking into account its structure, dynamics, and evolution. And the forecast for any landscape should be developed against an even broader regional background. Ultimately, a geographic forecast of any territorial scale requires taking into account global trends.
The development of a forecast is always focused on certain estimated periods, i.e., it is carried out with a predetermined lead time. We can therefore talk about the time scale of the forecast. On this basis, geographical forecasts are divided into ultra-short-term (up to 1 year), short-term (up to 3–5 years), medium-term (for the next decades, more often up to 10–20 years), long-term (for the next century) and ultra-long-term, or long-term ( for millennia and beyond). Naturally, the reliability of the forecast and the probability of its justification are lower, the more distant its estimated time is.
The principles of geographic forecasting arise from theoretical ideas about the functioning, dynamics and evolution of geosystems, including, of course, the patterns of their anthropogenic transformation. The initial basis for a geographic forecast are those factors or predictors on which upcoming changes in geosystems may depend. These factors have a dual origin - natural (tectonic movements, changes solar activity etc., as well as the processes of self-development of the landscape) and technogenic (hydraulic construction, economic development territories, reclamation, etc.).
There is a certain connection between the bases (factors) of the forecast and its spatial and temporal scales. The range of a truly comprehensive geographical forecast is limited by our more than modest abilities to foresee the paths of social and technical progress(science fiction writers don't count). This means that geographical forecasts beyond the foreseeable future can only be based on taking into account the most general natural factors, such as trends tectonic movements and great climatic rhythms. Since these processes have a wide range of action, the spatial scale of the forecast should also be quite wide - global or macro-regional. Thus, I. I. Krasnov tried to outline planetary natural changes climate for 1 million years in advance, based on the studied paleogeographic patterns. V.V. Nikolskaya developed a regional forecast for the south Far East 1000 years in advance, also based on paleogeographic data.
Forecast for the most short time– within a year – is also based on natural factors, during seasonal processes. For example, by the nature of winter one can judge the course of subsequent spring and summer processes; the moisture conditions of a given autumn determine the characteristics of plant vegetation in the spring next year etc. Taking into account technogenic factors in this case is of little relevance, since their indirect impact will significantly affect the structure of the natural complex only after years and even decades.
The possibility of taking into account the most complete factors of upcoming changes in geosystems, both natural and man-made, is realized with medium- and partly long-term geographic forecasting, i.e. for the coming years and decades. The optimal territorial objects in these cases should be considered landscapes and their regional associations of the order of landscape subprovinces and regions.
Geographic forecasting is based on the use of various complementary methods. One of the most famous is extrapolation, i.e. prolongation of trends identified in the past into the future. But this method should be used with caution, since the development of most natural processes proceeds unevenly, and even more so it is unacceptable to extend it to future modern rates of population and production growth, modern tendencies technology development, etc.
The method of geographical analogies consists in transferring patterns established in some landscapes to other, but necessarily similar, landscapes. For example, the results of observations of the influence of existing reservoirs on adjacent tracts and areas are used to predict possible geographical implications from designed reservoirs in similar (for example, taiga or desert) landscapes.
The landscape indication method is based on the use of private dynamic features to judge upcoming significant changes in the structure of the landscape. For example, a decrease in lake levels, the encroachment of forests into swamps may indicate more general trends in the development of landscapes associated with drying out of the climate or sustainable trends tectonic movements. For ultra-short-term local forecasting, the use of phenological indicators is promising. It is known that there is a fairly stable relationship between the timing of the onset of various phenological phenomena (phenological lag). This makes it possible to predict the onset of a number of natural phenomena based on observations of certain phenological indicators (for example, the beginning of dusting of alder or birch, flowering of rowan or linden) up to one to five weeks in advance.
As is known, between geographical phenomena there is no such strict determinism as exists in celestial mechanics or in clockwork, therefore a geographical forecast can only be probabilistic (statistical). This implies the importance of methods mathematical statistics, which make it possible to express in numerical form the correlations between the components of geosystems, the cyclicity of processes and their trends for the estimated forecast periods.
Several years ago, both in scientific circles and among the general public, a heated discussion broke out around the proposed transfer of part of the flow of northern rivers to the south. The views of both supporters and opponents of the “turn” of rivers were based not so much on strict scientific calculations as on emotions. Meanwhile, we are faced with a typical task of geographic forecasting: it was necessary to answer the question about possible negative consequences for the natural environment if the project were implemented. And some geographical teams worked to resolve this issue, although, unfortunately, the research results remained practically inaccessible to the public. The problem turned out to be so voluminous that it is impossible to present it in any detail here. Let's limit ourselves to just one example.
First of all, the spatial and temporal scales of such a forecast should be clearly defined. Based on the time scale, it can be defined as medium-term - in this case, the forecast for the next 10–20 years or a little further is the most relevant and most reliable. As for spatial scales, we can talk about all three levels.
The local forecast affects geosystems directly adjacent to hydraulic structures - dams, reservoirs, canals. The mechanism of local technogenic impacts is relatively simple, and its range of action covers mainly geosystems at the tract level. Its main manifestations are flooding and waterlogging coastal strip, erosion and floating of peatlands, some change local climate(for example, a decrease in the annual temperature range by 1–2 °C). These changes will have a noticeable effect in a strip hundreds of meters wide, but in different ways in different landscapes. For example, on the low-lying swampy lacustrine-glacial plains adjacent to lakes Lacha, Vozhe, Kubenskoye, the level of which was supposed to be increased in the event of a project to withdraw part of the flow from the basins of the Onega and Sukhona rivers, all natural processes associated with waterlogging will worsen. In the middle part of the Sukhona valley segment, the flooding effect will have almost no effect, despite the filling of the valley with a reservoir: the river is cut here to a depth of 50–60 m and the surface of the reservoir would be 10–20 m below the edge of the valley; The banks are composed of durable Upper Permian rocks, so their erosion should not be significant. In the upper part of the Sukhona valley, where the famous Vologda floodplain is located, a decrease in spring flood levels, a reduction in the duration of floodplain flooding, and a decrease in groundwater, drying out of part of the floodplain lakes, degradation of flooded meadows.
All these and many other specific local consequences of hydraulic engineering construction are most accurately and in detail reflected on the forecast landscape map, which conveys the expected state of the tracts for the estimated period (for example, by 2000 or 2010). But the development of a local forecast does not exhaust the solution to the problem. It is necessary to find out whether any unexpected disruptions to natural processes will occur on a regional scale, that is, in the territory covering the basins of donor rivers, in particular the Northern Dvina, Onega, and Neva. We are, therefore, talking about the territory of several landscape provinces (Northwestern taiga, Dvina-Mezen taiga and part of the neighboring ones). In fact, predictive analysis has to involve natural processes covering even larger spaces. Removing part of the river flow gives an impetus chain reactions, which can affect the system of interactions between land, ocean and atmosphere.
The first impetus in this chain of processes will be the shortfall in the marginal Arctic seas (White and Barents) of tens of cubic kilometers of relatively warm and fresh river water each year. The further effect of this phenomenon is contradictory: on the one hand, a decrease in heat influx should stimulate ice formation, on the other hand, a weakening of the desalination of sea water by river runoff will lead to an increase in their salinity and, therefore, weaken ice formation (salty water freezes at higher temperatures). low temperatures than fresh). It is extremely difficult to assess the total effect of these two oppositely directed processes, but we will accept the worst option, i.e., increased ice cover. Theoretically, this circumstance should contribute to a decrease in the temperature of the formations above the surface. marginal seas air masses In turn, arriving thanks to the active circulation of the atmosphere on the land of the European North, these sea air masses will lead to a cooling of the climate in the region (as well as a reduction in precipitation).
This is a purely qualitative, theoretical scheme. If we turn to some figures, it turns out that the technogenically caused component of the processes considered cannot be compared with the natural background. On the ice and temperature regime The seas washing northern Europe are decisively influenced by the flow of warm waters from the North Atlantic. Its average annual value is more than 200 thousand km 3, while the entire volume of annual river flow into the Arctic Ocean is 5.1 thousand km 3. If the amount of river flow withdrawal reached even 200 km 3 (and the first stage project provided for 25 km 3), then this would be three orders of magnitude lower than the inflow (advection) Atlantic waters. Only the annual fluctuations of this inflow, i.e., possible deviations from the average, reach 14 thousand km 3, i.e., exceed by tens or hundreds of times the volume of expected flow withdrawal from the northern river basins. Thus, there is no reason to expect any significant regional, much less global, effect in this case. However, if we make similar calculations for the Ob basin - Kara Sea system, we will get significantly different results, because there the share of river runoff in the formation of salt, thermal and ice regimes of sea waters is much higher, and we can expect more noticeable changes in the climate of the adjacent land.
A person who is building the future and eager to search is primarily interested not in surprises, but in what is more or less amenable to calculation and prediction.
Mihai Šimai
The essence and factors of geographic forecasting
From a general scientific point of view, a forecast is most often defined as hypothesis about the future development of the object. This means that the development of a wide variety of objects, phenomena and processes can be predicted: the development of science, economic sectors, social or natural phenomenon. Particularly common in our time are demographic forecasts of population growth, socio-economic forecasts of the possibility of satisfying the growing population of the Earth with food, and environmental forecasts of the future human living environment. If a person cannot influence the object of forecasting, such a forecast is called passive(for example, weather forecast).
The forecast may also consist of assessing the future economic and natural state of any territory for 15-20 years in advance. Anticipating, for example, an unfavorable situation, you can change it in a timely manner by planning an economically and environmentally optimal development option. Exactly like this active forecast implying feedbacks and the ability to control the forecasting object, is characteristic geographical science. Despite all the differences in forecast goals for modern geography and geographers there is no more important common task than developing a scientifically based forecast of the future state geographical environment based on assessments of its past and present. It is precisely in conditions of high rates of development of production, technology and science that humanity especially needs this kind of advanced information, since due to the lack of foresight of our actions, the problem of the relationship between man and the environment has arisen.
In the very general view geographic forecasting -
this is special Scientific research specific prospects for the development of geographical phenomena. Its task is to determine the future states of integral geosystems and the nature of interactions between nature and society.
Geographical research uses, first of all, the successive connections of temporal, spatial and genetic nature, since it is precisely these connections that are characterized by causality - the most important element in predicting events and phenomena, even high degree chance and probability. In turn, complexity and probabilistic nature are specific features of geoforecasting. The main operational units of geographic forecasting - space and time - are considered in comparison with the purpose and object of the forecast, as well as with the local natural and economic characteristics of a particular region.
The success and reliability of a geographical forecast are determined by many circumstances, including the correct choice of the main factors And methods that provide a solution to the problem.
Geographic forecasting of the state of the natural environment is multifactorial, and these factors are physically different: nature, society, technology, etc. It is necessary to analyze these factors and select those that, to some extent, can control the state of the environment - stimulate, stabilize or limit unfavorable or factors favorable for human development.
These factors can be external and internal. External factors- these are, for example, such sources of impact on the natural environment as quarries and overburden dumps, which completely destroy natural landscape, smoke emissions from factory chimneys that pollute the air, industrial and domestic wastewater entering water bodies, and many other sources of impact on the environment. The size and strength of the impact of such factors can be foreseen in advance and taken into account in advance in plans for the protection of nature in a given region.
TO internal factors include the properties of nature itself, the potential of its components and landscapes as a whole. Of the components of the natural environment involved in the forecasting process, depending on its goals and local geographical conditions, the main ones can be relief, rocks, water bodies, vegetation, etc. But some of these components remain virtually unchanged for the forecast period, for example 25-30 years in advance. Thus, relief, rocks, as well as processes of slow tectonic subsidence or uplift of the territory can be considered relatively constant factors in the development of the natural environment. The relative stability of these factors over time allows them to be used as a background and framework for forecasting.
Other significantly more dynamic factors, e.g. dust storms, drought, earthquakes, hurricanes, mudflows, have the significance of probabilistic quantities in geographic forecasting. In specific conditions, the strength of their impact on the landscape and the process of economic activity will depend not only on themselves, but also on the stability of the natural background on which they influence. Therefore, when making forecasts, a geographer operates, for example, with indicators of relief dissection, vegetation cover, mechanical composition of soils and many other components of the natural environment. Knowing the properties of the components and their mutual relationships, differences in response to external influences, it is possible to foresee in advance the response of the natural environment, both to its own parameters and to factors of economic activity. But even having selected not everything, but only the main natural components that best suit the solution of the problem, the researcher is still dealing with very a large number parameters of the relationship between each of the properties of the components and types of man-made loads. Therefore, geographers are looking for integral expressions of the sum of components, that is, the natural environment as a whole. Such a whole is the natural landscape with its historically established structure. The latter expresses, as it were, the “memory” of landscape development, a long series of statistical data necessary to predict the state of the natural environment.
Many believe that an indicator of a landscape’s resistance to external loads, especially pollution, can be the degree of diversity of its morphogenetic structure. With increasing diversity natural complexes and its components in natural complexes, regulatory processes are enhanced and stability is maintained. Stability can be disrupted by extreme natural processes and anthropogenic loads that exceed the potential capabilities of the landscape.
Anthropogenic factors, as a rule, reduce the diversity of the landscape and reduce its stability. But anthropogenic factors can also increase landscape diversity and resilience. Thus, the stability of the landscape of suburban areas with parks, gardens, ponds, i.e. territories quite diverse in structure and origin, is higher than it was before, when fields with agricultural monoculture crops dominated here. The least stable are natural landscapes with a simple, uniform structure, developing under conditions of extreme temperatures and moisture. Such landscapes are typical, for example, of desert and tundra zones. The potential instability of these territories to many types of technogenic loads is enhanced by the incompleteness of their natural complexes - the absence of soil and vegetation cover in many areas or its thinness.
Forecasting the state of the natural environment is a necessary condition for solving rational problems. Geographic forecasting is of particular importance, since it is complex and involves assessing the dynamics of natural and natural-economic systems in the future using both component and integral indicators.
Geographic forecasting is understood as the development of scientifically based judgments about the state and trends in the development of the natural environment in the future in order to make decisions on its rational use. This direction can be determined geographical research and more simply - as a prediction of the future state of the natural environment. The works of I.P. made a great contribution to its development. Gerasimova, T.V. Zvonkova, V.B. Sochavy, F.N. Milkova, A.G. Isachenko, A.G. Emelyanova, N.I. Koronkevich, K.N. Dyakonov and other researchers.
Forecasts are classified: 1) into component (industry) - hydrological, meteorological, etc.; complex - the dynamics of the state of the natural complex as a whole is assessed; 2) local (spatial from several square kilometers to several thousand square kilometers), regional (from several thousand square kilometers to hundreds of thousands of square kilometers), global (from hundreds of thousands of square kilometers to the territorial level of generating systems); 3) short-term (time scale from several to several days); medium-term (from several days to a year); long-term (from a year to centuries and millennia).
The most developed methods for predicting the natural environment include methods of physical-geographical extrapolation, physical-geographical analogies, landscape-genetic series, functional dependencies, and expert assessments. They are systematically presented in the work of A.G. Emelyanova. Based on this publication, let us briefly consider the essence of these methods.
The method of physical-geographical extrapolation is based on the extension of previously identified directions of development of the natural complex to its spatio-temporal dynamics in the future. The method of physical-geographical analogies is based on the principle that the patterns of process development identified in the conditions of one natural complex (analog), with certain amendments, are transferred to another, located in identical conditions with the first. The method of landscape-genetic series is based on the fact that the patterns of development established for spatial changes in natural processes can be transferred to their temporal dynamics, and vice versa. The method of functional dependencies is based on identifying factors that determine the dynamics of the predicted process and finding connections between them and process indicators. The method of expert assessments consists in determining the future state of the predicted object by studying the opinions of various specialists (experts).
Currently, to solve forecast problems, everything greater application finds a method simulation modeling. It is based on the construction of a simulation mathematical model, reflecting the spatio-temporal connections of natural complexes, and its computer implementation. Forecast calculations are carried out in the following way. The model inputs are influenced by: 1) regional forecasts of changes in natural conditions; 2) from a long-term program economic development territories. At the outputs of the model we obtain a forecast of the state of the natural environment.
Let us consider the application of this method using the example of forecasting the geoecological consequences of regional climate changes. The study was carried out using a model of a basin-landscape system built for the natural and economic conditions of the river basin. Pregolya - the main water artery Kaliningrad region.
The model includes equations water balance, dependence of phytomass and yield (using the example of winter wheat) on hydrothermal conditions, soil fertility, application of organic and fertilizers, balances of phytomass of vegetation, humus, nitrogen and phosphorus in the soil cover, nitrogen and phosphorus in groundwater and waters, as well as the equation of relationships between balances . It is designed to calculate changes in the natural environment in retrospect and over decades and centuries. Calculations are presented for the period from 1995 to 2025, within which scientifically based scenarios were developed and regional development programs were drawn up.
As a scenario, the model inputs are given a linear increase in average annual air by 1°C and annual air by 50 mm by 2025 compared to modern meanings. These data correspond to changes developed for the territory of the Kaliningrad region. Analysis of the modeling results showed the following changes in the components of the river basin-landscape system. Pregoli.
Forest vegetation and soil cover. phytomass increases by the end of the calculation period. Soil cover indicators: the content of humus, nitrogen and phosphorus experience opposite changes. A slight decrease in these values is likely due to an increase in their assimilation by the growing phytomass of forest vegetation, as well as an increase in surface and infiltration.
Agricultural plant and soil cover. The phytomass and yield of agricultural vegetation (for example, grain crops) also increases by the end of the calculation period. The content of humus, nitrogen and phosphorus decreases. The decrease in these substances in the soil is associated with an increase in their removal with the harvest, surface wash-off and infiltration.
River and underground waters. River flow and level groundwater increases towards the end of the calculation period, which confirms the more significant influence of climate humidification on the basin-landscape system. There is a tendency to increase the content of nitrogen and phosphorus in waters, which is explained by an increase in the supply of these substances with surface washout and infiltration.
The geoecological consequences of the implementation of the scenario of regional warming and climate humidification cannot be unequivocally assessed. Changes in the following parameters can be assessed as positive. The productivity and phytomass of forest vegetation increases. This will likely occur due to an increase in the proportion of broad-leaved trees, which will lead to greater geobotanical diversity and an increase in the environment-forming and resource-forming functions of forest geosystems. An increase in the yield of agricultural vegetation (using the example of winter wheat) due to warming and humidification of the regional climate by 2 c/ha is adequate to such an increase due to an increase in the application rates of mineral nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers by 1.2 - 1.3 times compared to the application rates in fields of the Kaliningrad region. Taking this circumstance into account will allow you to save money on a more rational use of fertilizers and reduce nitrogen and phosphorus pollution of the natural environment. At the same time, due to the increase in the removal of nutrients from the soil with the harvest, adequate application of fertilizers is necessary in order to maintain and increase soil fertility. There is a significant increase in groundwater levels. lacustrine-glacial and coastal, occupying a significant area in the Kaliningrad region and having a depth of 0.5 -1.5 m, may be subject to. Considering that 95% of agricultural land and 80% of forest area in the region are reclaimed, rising groundwater levels could offset the positive effects.
The results of the modeling show the need to carefully take into account the geo-ecological consequences of upcoming climate changes in economic activities in the Kaliningrad region. It is necessary to develop a well-thought-out system for increasing soil fertility, forest management and other areas of environmental management, taking into account the noted consequences. This approach can be used for other regions. The given example illustrates the need to use geographic forecasting to solve problems of environmental management.
This document presents work on developing the ability to predict in students in class and in extracurricular activities. The stages of implementation and ability to forecast, analysis of results, methodological means for developing forecasting activities, stages and techniques for solving forecasting tasks are presented.
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Malenkova L.A., geography teacher, Secondary School No. 6, Nefteyugansk
Speech at the Ministry of Geography on the topic: “Formation of the ability to predict in students in the classroom and during extracurricular activities»
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Today we all take part in the implementation of the modernization concept Russian education. Therefore, when determining my role, my goals and objectives, I proceeded from the social order stated in the Concept.
“A developing society needs modernly educated, moral, enterprising people who can independently make responsible decisions in a situation of choice, forecasting their possible consequences..."
The ability to forecast helps students feel the significance of their work, anticipate the development of geographical phenomena, plan research, carrying it out in stages (form a hypothesis, make a proposal), introduces them to an understanding of global problems, contributes to the development of real learning capabilities of most students and increases the level of their independence and creative activity.Answering the question: “What can I, as a geography teacher, do while fulfilling a social order?” - I determined task: “to organize an educational process that allows students to develop the ability to predict.” Thus, purpose of my work: student with the skill of forecasting.
How can I achieve this goal?
-use of methods for solving forecasting tasks;
-use of Internet technologies;
-organization of extracurricular activities at non-governmental educational institutions, electives;
- application of the ability to compare.
What does this look like in practice?
To develop students’ ability to predict, I created a system of measures that includes the following stages.
Stages of implementing the ability to predict:
Stage 1– situation analysis (September)
Stage 2 – development of a system of measures to develop the ability to forecast (October)
Stage 3 – practical implementation of a system of measures to develop forecasting skills (October-May)
Stage 4 – diagnostics of the level of development of this skill (2 times a year)
At stage 1 I determine the conditions under which it is possible to achieve the goal, I study the state and quality of students’ ability to predict (I conduct 1 section on topics)
At stage 2-3:
1 – motivation (interest), analysis of tasks, their analysis (slice)
2 – understanding the essence of forecasting and the rules for its implementation (drawing up an algorithm)
3 – identifying the level of development of students’ ability to predict (didactic techniques: written assignments, heuristic conversation).
The ability to predict depends on the level of development of students, the complexity of tasks, and their nature.
4 – creating conditions for practice (a task is given: for example, in groups) using the ability to predict in the classroom and homework, in oral responses and written works; when solving cognitive problems
5 – accumulation of forecasting experience
6 – transfer from one subject to another and to extracurricular activities (using the ability to predict in various conditions to solve problems)
1-2 quarter – all stages
3-4 quarter – practice, diagnostics
Analysis of implementation results(May):
- what new ideas, difficulties, mistakes, conditions for its most effective application;
Nr: - contributes to the development of real learning capabilities of the majority of students and increases the level of their independence and creative activity
- the readiness of individual students to develop the ability to predict
- make the transition from the theoretical level to the practical.
The most difficult level of requirements to master asks the student to make a development forecast geographical event or phenomena. The category “predict” is expressed through specific educational and cognitive actions that students perform duringcurrent and final control.
Prognostic activity- this is a special, specific type of cognitive (cognitive) activity of a person, requiring certain preparation (initial skill), mental effort, volitional, emotional stress, and psychological desire to search.
So, to clarify features predictive activity of schoolchildren and conditions for effective management its development during the learning process school geography I enter the main onesconcepts and terms, used in the theory of prognostics.
Forecast is a probabilistic judgment about the state of any studied object or phenomenon in the future.
Forecast as a species term is defined through more general terms:foresight and prediction. With foresight the forecast is based on theories unknown to many wide circles. Prediction simpler than foresight, it is based on such procedures of mental activity as:description and explanationthe expected state of an object or phenomenon.
Foresight has severalforms of specification:1) premonition (simple anticipation); 2) prediction (complex anticipation); 3) forecasting (research)
Geographic forecast - anticipating changes in the development of various natural, industrial, social, natural-social systems
Depending on the goals of the research, forecasting can be:forecast in environmental managementis a prediction of the dynamics of change natural resource potential and needs for natural resources; Andforecast of environmental impactis a prediction of changes in natural environment occurring as a result of direct and indirect impact of economic activities on it.
The forecast isforecasting result: this is a set of techniques that allow you to make a reliable judgment about the future state geographical feature or process.
When making a geographic forecast I use the following methods:
1)
Retrospective Forecasting– predicting the future based on a detailed study of the past state of the system
2)
Geographical analogy. For the forecast, the possible similarity of one better studied system with another less studied system is used.
3)
Expert assessments. When making a forecast, the opinions of expert specialists are taken into account.
4) Simulation . Based on the creation of a space-time model of the system using methods of mathematical statistics.
To provide prognostic activityschoolchildren in the process of teaching geography I:
1) I carry out forecasting for different levels complexity, step by step.
2) When designing predictive activities in the lesson system, I take into account different types geographic forecasting.
3) In the process of solving a forecasting task, I guide the student to select the adequate content of the forecasting method task.
At designing the learning processI focus ondedicated levelspredictive activity in the structure of education.
1)
Preliminary levelcarried out in the form predictions ; achieving this level requires less mental effort from students, but at the same time contributes to the development of cognitive interest in the subject of study.
2)
First main levelcarried out in the form predictions ; achieving this level requires students tomental effortrelated to the search for convincingtheoretical provisions, on the basis of which a prognostic judgment is built. In this case we use the methodsexpert assessments And retrospective.
3)
Second main levelcarried out in the formconcretization of foresight; This is the most complex level of activity, which requires not only mental effort, but also intuition. At level 2 we use methods analogies and simulations .
The maximum cognitive and developmental effect is provided by training, where all levels are considered in interconnection, arranged from simple to complex. With this approach, the implementation of this technology in practice contributes to the targeted development of the predictive function of geographical thinking.
Main methodical meansdevelopment of predictive activity of schoolchildren are educational assignments , which vary in degree of complexity and ensure the development of the actions of prediction, forecasting and forecasting itself (foresight)
When constructing tasks of this kind, I use the followingactivity algorithm.
Algorithm for design and use in the learning process educational assignment prognostic type.
1.Membership, structuring theoretical knowledge educational topic already studied in the educational process.
2. Selection, development of a learning situation in which this or that part of theoretical knowledge will be used.
3. Deformation of the situation (breaking a certain geographical connection) in order to create uncertainty regarding the relevant knowledge.
4. Formulating a question regarding a deformed situation.
5. Offering a task to the student.
6. Involving students in the process of solving a prediction problem.
7. Monitoring the correctness of the problem solution; identifying difficulties in independent search or collective mental activity; identifying the need for a hint.
In addition, I take into account the stages and techniques for students solving a predictive task.
On first stage I communicate the conditions of the problem, analyzing which students are involved in its solution. Getting started second stage solving the problem, students, using thematic maps, textbook text, and other sources of information, collect data to solve the problem, then formulate hypotheses . After clearly formulating the hypotheses, I organize third stage solving a problem - testing the correctness of hypotheses (arguments), where I suggest that students find additional factual data in previously prepared texts, schematic drawings and explain the theoretically observed picture. At the third stage of solving the problem, I try to avoid students from having to present additional data in a reproductive manner; the message of “experts” or analysis of different texts in groups. Discussion of new additional information convinces students of the correctness of the correct assumption, on the basis of whichthe final prognostic judgment is formulated.
Success of the solutionpredictive learning situationdepends largely on the ability of students to compare, generalize, and systematize previously studied material so as to form a prognostic judgment .
When constructing forecast tasks, I mean that the restructuring geographic envelope and regional geosystems is measured on a geological scale and lasts millennia. ANDChanges in local geosystems can occur before human eyes (for example: the formation of quarry and dump complexes, overgrowing of swamps, etc.). That is why I choose them as important objects of forecasting.
I define three possible levels formation of the ability to predict:
Level 1 – the student finds it difficult to put forward a hypothesis and search for arguments
Level 2 – puts forward arguments that partially prove the hypothesis
Level 3 – puts forward arguments proving the correctness of the hypothesis
Control sectionsI will check the level of development of forecasting skillsonce every six months, For example:
In 6th grade
Task 1 on the topic “Lithosphere”
- What will happen if the Ural Mountains are located latitudinally in the north of Eurasia?
Task 2 on the topic “Hydrosphere”
- Make a forecast possible changes internal waters of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Yugra as a result of human economic activity.
IN 8th grade
Task 1 on the topic “Altitudinal zones”
- Your forecast: if the Khibiny and Caucasus mountains were swapped, what would the set of altitudinal zones look like?
Assignment 2 on the topic “Nature management and conservation”
- Do you think that human dependence on natural conditions will decrease or increase compared to the present time? Give reasons and justify your answer.
V 10th grade
Task 1 on the topic “World Population”
- Think about how the share of the working-age population will change in economically developed and developing countries in 20-30 years. What problems will be aggravated by such a change in quantity? labor resources?
Task 2 on the topic “Africa”
- Make a forecast of economic development of countries North Africa based on the effective and rational use of them natural resources. Which North African countries do you think have the greatest prospects? successful development? Why?
Classes | Exercise 1 | Task 2 | ||||
Level 1 | Level 2 | Level 3 | Level 1 | Level 2 | Level 3 |
|
When solving forecasting tasks I useComputer techologiesFor:
- demonstration of materials: visual aids and maps;
- independent work students.
For example: for a lesson on the topic “Rivers” in 6th grade, I prepared a presentation while solving the task “Is it possible in the future to build a hydroelectric power station on the Ob River?”
On the topic “Volcanoes” in 6th grade - “Do you think there could be volcanoes on the territory of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug in the future?”
Research
Based on the Concept of Education, which provides for the formation of research skills based on the systematization of knowledge, analysis andforecasting, I develop in students the ability to predict trends in the development of the environmental situation in the city in extracurricular activities within the framework of non-state educational institutions. For several years, NOU students and I have been working on the topic “The state of the human environment and its impact on public health”: the students spoke at the city conference “Step into the Future” on the topic “Atmospheric pollution over the city of Nefteyugansk and its impact on public health” (3rd place ); took part in the conference in Surgut; on the topic “The influence of quality drinking water on the health of the population of Nefteyugansk." I'm currently working on the topic " Sanitary condition soils and health of the population of Nefteyugansk". The result of the students’ work will be the compilationenvironmental forecast for city development.
Contributes to the formation of the ability to forecastelective on the topic "Country Studies"
When studying nature, population, economy large countries, features of life and economic activity in various natural conditions, students perform various forecasting tasks: they reveal changes in environmental management practices, the dynamics of growth environmental problems individual countries and their solutions in the future, predict the main trends in the development of natural, socio-economic and environmental processes in relation to specific countries.
For example :
- Predict whether it will change age composition population of Germany?
- Make a forecast of the economic development of Brazil based on the rational use of natural resources.
Formation of forecasting skillsstudents both in class and extracurricular activities occur on the basiscomparison skills. For this purpose, I compiled a pedagogical search program “Formation of meta-subject skills in students: comparison». This technique is aimed at studying essential features, but by comparing objects with each other. It helps to deepen and clarify the material being studied. Thus, the objects being studied are learned much more fully. This technique provides an optimal result in shaping the thinking of schoolchildren, including when making forecasts. I use different typescomparison tasks:
A) - independent workafter completing the topics; 7th grade - comparison of PP by 40°
parallels in Eurasia and North America
b) –educational worksfor comparison: 6th grade – “By physical map world, determine the area of which continent or continents would change the least if the level of the World Ocean rose by 200 meters. Give arguments."
8th grade: - How will the population of the Russian Federation change in 2020 compared to now?
- Predict whether the composition of the labor force in our district will change?
V) -comparison exercisesaccording to the model (algorithm): Grade 6 – Explain how igneous and sedimentary rocks differ. Using the necessary maps, determine the similarities and differences in the location of the Mississippian Lowland and the Western Siberian Plain. Suggest whether their location will change in 250 million years. Give reasons for your answer.
G) -not complicated research papers
; for example, on the topic “Climate of your area” (comparison by month: September and February).
Every year, NOU students take part in the conference " Step into the Future ", have diplomas and certificates.