§ 5. EXAMPLES OF HYPOTHESES ARISING IN COGNITION
The role of hypothesis in knowledge is great. The laws and theories of science at one time (before their confirmation) passed the stage of hypothesis. Great scientists invested enormous effort both in the process of collecting scientific facts and in their systematization when constructing and confirming scientific hypotheses.
K.E. Tsiolkovsky is the founder of the theory of space flight. In 1903, he published his remarkable work “Exploration of world spaces using reactive instruments,” which, according to academician SP. The Queen determined his life and scientific path. K.E. Tsiolkovsky formulated hypothesis:“Centrifugal force balances gravity and reduces it to zero - this is the path to space flight.” “Calculations could also indicate to me the speeds that are necessary to free ourselves from earthly gravity and reach the planets,” writes Tsiolkovsky. So, the facts here are calculations. Tsiolkovsky noted: “Almost all the energy of the Sun is currently lost, useless for humanity, because the Earth receives two (more precisely, 2.23) billion times less than the Sun emits. What’s strange about the idea of using this energy! What’s strange about the idea of mastering the boundless space surrounding the globe...”* This is what K.E. wrote. Tsiolkovsky at the beginning of the 20th century. How many new scientific hypotheses have been formulated here! How great and ingenious is the power of his scientific foresight! It is known about the scientific successes of our country in space exploration, as well as about solar power plants, which, according to the assumption (i.e., hypothesis) of scientists, will be able to compete with thermal and nuclear power plants.
*Cit. but: Life of Science / Anthology of introductions to the classics of natural science. Comp. Kapitsa SP: M., 1973. P. 431.
The theory of natural radioactivity was created by Becquerel, Pierre Curie and Maria Sklodowska-Curie, who were awarded the Nobel Prize in 1903 for the discovery of radioactivity (the natural radioactive elements polonium and radium). After four years of hard work, manually processing more than a ton of uranium ore in an old warehouse, Marie Curie managed to isolate pure radium chloride - this is the result of a huge accumulation and generalization of facts, experiments, and the transformation of a hypothesis into a theory by obtaining the proposed chemical element. Later, in 1911, Marie Curie received the Nobel Prize in Chemistry for obtaining metallic radium (together with Debien). She is the only woman in the world to twice win the Nobel Prize. Marie Curie writes: “It is true that some of the main principles have already been established, but most of the conclusions are fortune-telling character(italics mine. - A.G.)... The research of various scientists studying these [radioactive] substances constantly converges and diverges.”* These statements by M. Curie indicate hypotheses (“fortune-telling character”) and the emergence of competing hypotheses, when the opinions of scientists often differed.
* Curie M. Research of radioactive substances // Life of Science. M., 1973. P. 511.
Currently, a number of physicists are trying to create a theory, but in the meantime they are putting forward various hypotheses regarding the “grand unification” of electromagnetism, strong and weak nuclear forces, and gravity. Hypotheses are being expressed about the possibility of creating a unified theory that would describe all physical phenomena both on a cosmic scale and at the micro- and macro-level. But this is a matter for the future, and it will show whether this can be done or not. Knowledge is limitless, and we believe in the power of the human mind!
There are many hypotheses in chemistry. A classic example is the Periodic Table of Chemical Elements by D.I. Mendeleev, on the basis of which he expressed hypotheses about the existence of elements not yet discovered at that time. In particular, he predicted the values of the atomic weights of uranium, thorium, beryllium, indium and a number of other chemical elements. These predictions of his were confirmed. DI. Mendeleev also came up with a number of other hypotheses: “about chemical energy...”, “about the limit of chemical compounds”, “about the structure of siliceous compounds”, etc. *
* Mendeleev D.I. Fundamentals of chemistry // Life of Science. M., 1973. P. 252.
Mendeleev wrote more than 400 works. His worldwide fame is evidenced by the fact that he was a member of more than 100 scientific societies and academies.
In the sciences that study living organisms, there is a “dense forest of hypotheses.” Carl Linnaeus walked almost 7,000 km across the north of Scandinavia, studying this region and collecting factual material to build hypotheses and his artificial classification of plants. He visited many European countries, looked through the herbariums of many botanists, his students visited Canada, Egypt, China, Spain, Lapland and from there they sent him collected plants. Linnaeus's friends from various countries sent him seeds and dried plants. Writes in line: "Sauvage" gave his entire collection - a rare and unheard-of occurrence, thanks to which I acquired an unusually rich collection of plants.”* This is the enormous material that served Linnaeus for his systematization.
* Linnaeus K. Types of plants. Preface // Life of Science. M„ 1973. P. 275.
THEM. Sechenov studied many problems of physiology and psychology. In his work “Reflexes of the Brain” (1863), he first tried to solve problems of psychology from the standpoint of physiology. His book was immediately prosecuted. Sechenov formulated a general hypothesis, which he brilliantly proved: “All external manifestations of brain activity can really be reduced to muscle movement”*. Since muscle movements are divided by origin into involuntary and voluntary, Sechenov analyzes them separately. At the same time, he puts forward new general hypotheses, but in terms of the degree of generalization they are less general than the previously put forward hypothesis.
** Semenov I.M. Reflexes of the brain. Preface // Life of Science. M., 1973. P. 360.
In biology, the works of I.P. are valuable. Pavlov on the physiology of digestion, blood circulation and especially higher nervous activity. I.P. Pavlov writes about the true history of their 20-year collective work as follows: “He (the reader. - A.G.) will see how little by little our factual material expanded and corrected, how our ideas about different aspects of the subject gradually took shape, and how, finally, a general picture of higher nervous activity more and more emerged before us.”*
* Pavlov IL. Twenty years of experience in the objective study of higher nervous activity (behavior) of animals. Conditioned reflexes. Preface // Life of Science. M, 1973. P. 390.
The works of L. Pasteur, who first studied chemistry, are interesting. He, after local winemakers drew attention to the problems of wine disease, as a result of 20 years of research, discovered the biochemical theory of fermentation; developed a process later called pasteurization; For five years he dealt with the problem of silkworm disease, which was of great practical importance, since as a result of this disease more than 3.5 thousand owners of real estate in the silkworm departments of France found themselves in a difficult situation. L. Pasteur devoted almost five years of his life to difficult experimental research, lost his health, but nevertheless believed that he was happy, because he brought benefit to his country. And about the duty of a scientist, L. Pasteur wrote this: “... It is a matter of honor for a scientist, in the face of misfortune, to sacrifice everything for the sake of trying to help get rid of it. Therefore, perhaps, I gave young scientists a beneficial example of long-term efforts in solving a difficult and thankless task.”*
* Pasteur L. Study of silkworm disease // Life of Science. M., 1973. P. 370.
In the science of biology, in addition to these classical hypotheses, which have turned into confirmed scientific knowledge, there are also modern biological hypotheses, which in some cases are put forward at the intersection of a number of sciences. We will only list them, without being able to disclose their content and status. The joint work of physiologists and geneticists, specialists in radiation biology and technology, viticulture and breeding contribute to the creation of grape varieties with predetermined properties. Hypotheses about the possibility of obtaining significant yields from salt marshes, of which there are 10 million km 2 in the world, are vitally important, while the total area of land cultivated in the world today is 15.5 million km 2, i.e. A significant percentage of all land in the world is occupied by saline soils. One of them is hypothesis about the cultivation of halophytes on these lands - plants that are resistant to salt. Breeders are developing varieties of plants (halophytes) that can produce crops on now waste land when irrigated with salt water. With the development of genetic engineering, the number of hypotheses in this regard will increase, and significant success can be foreseen in the targeted modification of many species of living organisms.
We presented hypotheses from various fields of natural science. IN social sciences a large number of different hypotheses also arise. Previously, several isolated hypotheses were given regarding the painting by Raphael (1483-1520) “Portrait of a Veiled Woman (Donna Velata),” written in 1515-1516. It is unknown who served as the model for this famous portrait. Back in the 16th century. a legend was born according to which “The Veiled Woman” is the artist’s beloved, the beautiful baker Fornarina. Other names were also mentioned: Lucrezia Della Rovere, granddaughter of Pope Julius II; Cardinal Bibiena's niece, Maria, was destined to be Raphael's wife. In “Donna Velata” they saw an allegory of earthly love, paired with heavenly love. Judging by the magnificent attire, a noble person posed for Raphael. Cover (ANDvelo), descending from the head to the chest is a sign of the lady’s married status, and the right hand pressed to the chest is a gesture expressing marital fidelity. The similarity of “Donna Velata” with the “Sistine Madonna”, “Madonna Della Sedia”, “Phrygian Sibyl”* has been repeatedly noted.
* See: Abstract to Raphael’s painting “Portrait of a Woman under a Veil (Donna Velata).” L.: Hermitage. Exhibition of Western European Art, 1989.
Currently, the teaching of philosophical science is being increasingly introduced logic in secondary educational institutions: secondary schools, gymnasiums, lyceums, teacher training colleges, teacher training colleges, law colleges and other state and non-state educational institutions. In this regard, the author of this book put forward two pedagogical hypotheses:
1) many elements of logic should be introduced into teaching from the 1st grade;
2) it is advisable to start teaching a systematic course in logic from grades 4-5.
The importance of hypotheses cannot be exaggerated jurisprudence and legal practice. Here they are called versions. Any investigation of a crime requires the advancement of all possible versions, explaining the crime, and their verification.
IN pedagogical science, especially in the methods of teaching mathematics, physics, chemistry, biology, history and methods of primary education, they also put forward their own hypotheses about ways to more effectively teach and educate and conduct experiments in schools to confirm these hypotheses.
Based on the examples given, illustrating the hypotheses put forward in physics, chemistry, biology, in the practice of teaching and upbringing, we can confidently say that a hypothesis is a form of development of any knowledge, including in jurisprudence.
In order to correctly construct all possible versions in legal practice, you need to know both the general logical principles of constructing hypotheses, methods of confirming hypotheses, methods of refuting hypotheses, and take into account the specific (special) features inherent in these versions, and individual features that are characteristic of this particular object, incident, event, tragic death, disaster and other social or natural phenomena.
During the investigation of any crime or tragic event, investigators put forward many versions, then check each of them. For example, versions regarding the death of the nuclear submarine "Kursk", the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, the murder of a person, etc. More details about the development of versions will be discussed in the tasks for this topic.
/. How many and what hypotheses are contained in the text below by the American psychophysiologist F.I. McGuigan? Determine the type of hypotheses and find their confirmation. What form is the confirmation in? Direct or indirect method of confirmation?
“Excessive stress kills. Stressful situations in everyday life can kill slowly or suddenly... The problem of how to "reasonably" respond to stressful situations is not new. Many solutions have been proposed to deal with stress. The most common: relax your body if it is tense. How can we learn to achieve this desired state?
Relaxation- one of the old concepts, but only at the beginning of our century in scientific works it acquired its real clinical significance. The most thoroughly tested and original method of teaching relaxation is, in our opinion, the method of progressive relaxation developed by the American scientist E. Jacobson back in 1908.
Jacobson's clinical observations over seven decades showed that those patients who learned to relax were likely to add twenty years to their lives. And although he did not have direct experimental evidence, vast clinical experience spoke in favor of such an assumption (hypothesis. - A.G.).
In addition, the observations were completely justified physiologically, since the method of progressive relaxation can significantly reduce many body functions. For example, for many who have mastered this method, the breathing rate decreases to 8 breaths per minute, and the heart rate to 40 beats per minute. In a state of general relaxation, almost everyone stops cognitive (cognitive) processes, although this only happens with complete muscle relaxation .
There is a hypothesis that overstrain of many body systems reduces life expectancy in one way or another. But it is firmly established that chronic overexertion of the body ultimately leads to damage to some system, be it cardiovascular, digestive, cognitive or other. Apparently, only accurate experimental data could answer the question of the effect of relaxation on life expectancy.”
//. Analyze two passages from J. Creasey's "The Adventures of the Baron."
Situation: jewelry has been stolen. 1. “All of them (safes. - A.G.) were opened by a masterful hand. And this master knew how to work with a gas cutter first-class. Five of the six safe doors were gaping wide open. Stirn groaned in horror. And Bristow expertly studied the work of a burglar.
As far as I know, only three people can do this,” he said. - Alone in prison. That leaves, therefore, Lark-Squirrel and Dale-Mandrazh.
This is definitely not Lark,” John responded.
Then it's Dale." Explanation.
An indirect method of confirming the hypothesis (version) is used here. Its structure is like this:
It must be remembered that with this method two conditions must be met:
1) list all possible hypotheses (versions), and the disjunction can be either strict or not strict;
2) all false hypotheses (versions) should be refuted.
An indirect method of confirming hypotheses can be used in investigative practice, giving a reliable conclusion, but not in criminal crimes.
It is this case of confirmation of the hypothesis (version) that J. Creasy used in the above passage.
Prove that both of the above conditions are met, and therefore the conclusion was made correctly. What propositions do the letters a, b, c represent?
2. After discovering the opened safes and the theft of jewelry, the victim and the police put forward the following hypotheses (versions).
“Hypothesis one: the one who sold the first half of the collection has already regretted it and wants to take possession of it again.
Hypothesis two: the owner of the other half is eager to replenish the collection, just like John. In any case, it is unlikely that a twenty-year-old sucker would be able to pull off such a robbery on his own. Someone behind him carefully designed the operation - the guy was too well informed.”
How many hypotheses (versions) have been put forward (two or three)? What type of hypotheses (versions) are given in this text: general, specific or isolated?
III. Analyze two excerpts from O. Blick’s work “The Prokain Diaries”. How many versions are formulated in the first passage? What method of confirming the hypothesis (version) was used by the author in the second passage?
1. “And he jumped out of the window, or fell, or was thrown out.”
2. “- Apart from the four of us, Oller and Dil, only you knew about your involvement in this case.
The constable shook his head.
This is not enough.
Why? Janet was with me. Widestein is at home with his wife and children, the detectives are in Brooklyn. That leaves you and Procain. Procane said he did not kill Frann. So it’s you.”
Compare with the explanation for problem No.II.1. Are all conditions (first and second) met here?
IV. Consider a number of hypotheses (versions) formulated by D.Kh. Chase in the works “The Trap” and “I Would Rather Be Poor.”
1. “- This morning Mr. Masters, the bank manager, called the assistant district attorney and told him that your husband urgently needed five hundred thousand dollars. It turns out that bank administrations inform the police in cases where depositors are urgently given large sums in small bills. Until the final clarification, the police proceed from the hypothesis that this money is intended for ransom.”
2. “He told Renick that Odette did not meet her friend last night and did not return home. The district attorney weighed the facts and came to a conclusion. He is convinced that Odette has been kidnapped and is preparing for the biggest sensation since the Lindbergh case."
3. “We don’t know with certainty that she was kidnapped,” I noted. - He might need the money for some kind of transaction.
Renick shook his head.
Don't think. Even a millionaire will not ask the manager to open the bank on Sunday if it is not a matter of life and death. I bet she's kidnapped. We need to report to Meadows."
4. “John believes that the girl has been kidnapped, but I wouldn’t rack my brains about it until my suspicions are confirmed. Personally, I think Malru needed the money to complete a major deal.”
5. “I understand that this seems incredible,” said Trevers, “but my hypothesis perfectly explains all the facts we know.
I don't believe! This is just a guess. You yourself said that you have no evidence!
Yes... not yet. I only realized it was Calvin an hour ago. But I will find evidence. I have no doubt about it. Look, I'll tell you why I'm sure it's Calvin."
6. “Let’s not quarrel, honey,” he said. “Maybe I’m wrong, but if my hypothesis is confirmed, our relationship will not change, right?”
7. “Suddenly it occurred to her: if the money is really in the basement, it is in one of the individual boxes - what a clever idea to hide the money in such a box. She dragged a chair to the stacked boxes, climbed onto it and picked up the top drawer. He was withdrawn.
She checked the second box without moving it; it didn’t open either.”
V. Analyze fragments of the story by A.S. Pushkin "Dubrovsky". Formulate all versions:
a) about the cause of the fire in Dubrovsky’s house;
b) about the leader of the robbers;
c) about the reasons for sparing Troekurov’s estates.
1. “Everything’s okay now,” said Arkhip, “how’s it burning, huh?” tea from Pokrovsky is nice to watch.
The blacksmith left; The fire raged for some time. Finally it calmed down, and piles of coals without flames burned brightly in the darkness of the night, and the burnt residents of Kistenevka wandered around them.
The next day, news of the fire spread throughout the area. Everyone talked about him with various guesses and assumptions. Some assured that Dubrovsky's people, having gotten drunk at the funeral, set the house on fire out of carelessness, others blamed the clerks for playing tricks on the housewarming party, many assured that he himself burned down with the zemstvo court and all the servants. Some guessed the truth and argued that the culprit of this terrible disaster was Dubrovsky himself, driven by anger and despair...
The women Vasilisa and Lukerya said that they saw Dubrovsky and Arkhip the blacksmith a few minutes before the fire. The blacksmith Arkhip, according to everyone, was alive and probably the main, if not the only, culprit of the fire. Dubrovsky was under strong suspicion. Kirila Petrovich sent the governor a detailed description of the entire incident, and a new case began.”
2. “Soon other news gave other food for curiosity and gossip. Robbers appeared in *** and spread terror throughout the surrounding area. The measures taken against them by the government were insufficient. Robberies, one more remarkable than the other, followed one after another. There was no safety either on the roads or in the villages. Several troikas filled with robbers traveled throughout the province during the day, stopped travelers and mail, came to villages, robbed the landowners' houses and set them on fire. The leader of the gang was famous for his intelligence, courage and some kind of generosity. Miracles were told about him; Dubrovsky's name was on everyone's lips, everyone was sure that he, and no one else, led the brave villains. They were surprised at one thing: Troekurov’s estates were spared; the robbers did not rob a single barn from him, did not stop a single cart. With his usual arrogance, Troekurov attributed this exclusively to the fear that he knew how to instill in the entire province, as well as the excellent police force he had established in his villages. At first, the neighbors laughed among themselves at Troekurov’s arrogance, and everyone expected the uninvited guests to visit Pokrovskoye, where they had something to profit from, but finally they were forced to agree with him and admit that the robbers also showed him an incomprehensible respect... Troekurov triumphed at every news of Dubrovsky’s new robbery was scattered in ridicule about the governor, police officers and company commanders, from whom Dubrovsky always escaped unharmed.”
VI. Formulate (name) the types of hypotheses (general, particular, individual, working, temporary) that children put forward when analyzing words they do not understand, based on K. Chukovsky’s book “From Two to Five” (section “False Interpretation of Words”).
Analyze the speech of the children you meet and find their similar “word creativity”, i.e. inventions of a child, similar to those cited by K. Chukovsky.
“A child who lives among adults and is constantly present during their conversations, every now and then hears words whose meaning is unclear to him. Often he tries to comprehend them himself...
For example, three-year-old Kira heard that some woman had given birth to twins, and at that very moment she came running to me:
You see: two boys were born, and both are called Yashki. That’s why they were called two Yashki (twins). And when they grow up, their names will be Misha and Leva...
And when little Tanya was told that there was rust on her pillowcase, she asked without embarrassment:
Was it the horse that told me?
The lazy man is the man who makes boats, and the horseman is “the one in the garden”; “a village - where there are a lot of trees”, “a bush is a watchman who watches over the bushes.” The mill is the miller's wife, and the Cossack, of course, is the husband of the goat. “Uncle Phil is a specialist” - about a man who loves to sleep.
The children did not come up with any of these words themselves, but heard them from adults. And they interpreted them in their own way. And at the first opportunity they tried to put it into circulation...
He (child. - A.G.) demands logic from every word and if he doesn’t find it, then he invents it. When five-year-old Yolka first saw a piece of pecked bread, she peered at it and said with confidence:
I understand. The birds pecked him.
In fact, if you don’t know the Polish verb pitlowac (i.e. grind cleanly and finely), you have to resort to such an invention.
Bourgeois psychologists are not very respectful of these children’s guesses: “We have more than once studied,” says Piaget, “spontaneous (!) etymology, to which children have such a passion, and then their amazing desire for verbalism, that is, for a fantastic interpretation of poorly understood words: if these two phenomena show how easy it is for a child to satisfy his mind with arbitrary justifications”*.
* Piaget J. Speech and thinking of a child. M., 1932. P. 168.
I can’t help but admire the child’s persistent and systematic work aimed at mastering the language resources of adults.
His arrogant brain works tirelessly to analyze every incomprehensible word and puts forward one after another a number of working hypotheses, which should bring at least illusory order into this chaos.
Ignorance of life forces a child to involuntarily operate with these temporary hypotheses, but there's nothing wrong with that, because hypotheses are soon replaced by accurate data, mainly due to the pedagogical intervention of adults. By working on such fictions, the child thereby becomes accustomed to working on real facts” (emphasis added - AT.).
The concept of a hypothesis (Greek ὑπόθεσις - “basis, assumption”) is a scientific assumption, the truth of which has not yet been confirmed. A hypothesis can act as a method for developing scientific knowledge (putting forward and experimentally testing assumptions), as well as as an element of the structure of a scientific theory. The creation of a hypothetical system in the process of carrying out certain mental operations allows a person to make the supposed structure of certain objects available for discussion and visible transformation. The forecasting process in relation to these objects becomes more specific and reasonable.
History of the development of the hypothesis method
The emergence of the hypothetical method occurs at an early stage in the development of ancient mathematical knowledge. In ancient Greece, mathematicians used thought experiments for mathematical proofs. This method consisted of putting forward a hypothesis and then drawing consequences from it using analytical deduction. The purpose of the method was to test initial scientific guesses and assumptions. Plato develops his own analytical-synthetic method. At the first stage, the put forward hypothesis is subjected to preliminary analysis; at the second, it is necessary to carry out a logical chain of conclusions in the reverse order. If this is possible, the initial assumption is considered confirmed.
While in ancient science the hypothetical method is used more in a hidden form, within the framework of other methods, at the end of the 17th century. the hypothesis begins to be used as an independent method of scientific research. The method of hypotheses received the greatest development and strengthening of its status within the framework of scientific knowledge in the works of F. Engels.
Hypothetical thinking in childhood
The procedure for formulating hypotheses is one of the most important stages in the development of thinking in childhood. For example, the Swiss psychologist J. Piaget writes about this in his work “Speech and Thinking of the Child” (1923).
Examples of hypotheses for children can be found already in the initial stages of learning. Thus, children may be asked to answer the question of how birds know the way to the south. In turn, children begin to make assumptions. Examples of hypotheses: “they follow those birds in the flock that have already flown south before”; “are guided by plants and trees”; “they feel the warm air”, etc. Initially, the thinking of a 6-8 year old child is egocentric, but in his conclusions the child is guided primarily by simple intuitive justification. In turn, the development of hypothetical thinking allows us to remove this contradiction, facilitating the child’s search for evidence when justifying certain of his answers. Later, when moving to secondary school, the process of generating hypotheses becomes significantly more complicated and acquires new specifics - a more abstract character, reliance on formulas, etc.
Tasks for the development of hypothetical thinking are actively used as part of the developmental education of children, built according to the system of D.B. Elkonina -
However, regardless of the formulation, a hypothesis is an assumption about the relationships of two or more variables in a certain context and represents a mandatory component of a scientific theory.
Hypothesis in the system of scientific knowledge
A scientific theory cannot be formulated using a direct inductive generalization of scientific experience. A hypothesis that explains the totality of certain facts or phenomena acts as an intermediate link. This is the most difficult stage in the system of scientific knowledge. Intuition and logic play the leading role here. Reasoning in itself is not evidence in science - it is only conclusions. Their truth can be judged only if the premises on which they rely are true. The researcher’s task in this case is to select the most important from a variety of empirical facts and empirical generalizations, as well as to attempt a scientific substantiation of these facts.
In addition to the correspondence of a hypothesis to empirical data, it is also necessary that it meets such principles of scientific knowledge as reasonableness, economy and simplicity of thinking. The emergence of hypotheses is due to the uncertainty of the situation, the explanation of which is a pressing issue for scientific knowledge. There may also be conflicting judgments at the empirical level. In order to resolve this contradiction, it is necessary to put forward certain hypotheses.
Specifics of constructing hypotheses
Due to the fact that a hypothesis is based on a certain assumption (prediction), it should be borne in mind that this is not yet reliable, but probable knowledge, the truth of which still needs to be proven. Moreover, it must cover all the facts related to this scientific field. As R. Carnap notes, if a researcher assumes that an elephant is an excellent swimmer, then we are not talking about one specific elephant, which he could observe in one of the zoos. In this case, the English article the (in the Aristotelian sense - multiple meaning) takes place, that is, we are talking about a whole class of elephants.
A hypothesis systematizes existing facts and also predicts the emergence of new ones. Thus, if we consider examples of hypotheses in science, we can highlight the quantum hypothesis of M. Planck, put forward by him at the beginning of the twentieth century. This hypothesis, in turn, led to the discovery of such areas as quantum mechanics, quantum electrodynamics, etc.
Basic properties of the hypothesis
Ultimately, any hypothesis must be either confirmed or refuted. Thus, we are dealing with such properties of a scientific theory as verifiability and falsifiability.
The verification process is aimed at establishing the truth of this or that knowledge through empirical testing, after which the research hypothesis is confirmed. An example is the atomistic theory of Democritus. We must also distinguish between assumptions that can be empirically tested and those that are, in principle, unverifiable. Thus, the statement: “Olya loves Vasya” is initially not verifiable, while the statement: “Olya says that she loves Vasya” can be verified.
Verifiability can also be indirect, when a conclusion is made on the basis of logical conclusions from directly verified facts.
The process of falsification, in turn, is aimed at establishing the falsity of a hypothesis through the process of empirical testing. It is important to note that the results of testing a hypothesis cannot in themselves refute it - an alternative hypothesis is necessary for the further development of the field of knowledge under study. If there is no such hypothesis, rejection of the first hypothesis is impossible.
Hypothesis in experiment
Assumptions put forward by the researcher for experimental confirmation are called experimental hypotheses. However, they are not necessarily based on theory. V. N. Druzhinin distinguishes three types of hypotheses from the point of view of their origin:
1. Theoretically based - based on a theory (model of reality) and being predictions, consequences of these theories.
2. Scientific experimental - also confirm (or refute) certain models of reality, however, the basis is not already formulated theories, but the intuitive assumptions of the researcher (“Why not so?..”).
3. Empirical hypotheses formulated regarding a specific given case. Examples of hypotheses: “Click a cow on the nose, she will wag her tail” (Kozma Prutkov). After confirming a hypothesis during an experiment, it acquires the status of a fact.
Common to all experimental hypotheses is such a property as operationalizability, that is, the formulation of hypotheses in terms of specific experimental procedures. In this context, three types of hypotheses can also be distinguished:
- hypotheses about the presence of a particular phenomenon (type A);
- hypotheses about the existence of a connection between phenomena (type B);
- hypotheses about the presence of a causal relationship between phenomena (type B).
Examples of type A hypotheses:
- Is there a phenomenon of “risk bias” (a social psychology term) in group decision making?
- Is there life on Mars?
- Is it possible to transmit thoughts over a distance?
This also includes the periodic system of chemical elements by D.I. Mendeleev, on the basis of which the scientist predicted the existence of elements not yet discovered at that time. Thus, all hypotheses about facts and phenomena belong to this type.
Examples of type B hypotheses:
- All external manifestations of brain activity can be reduced to muscle movements (I.M. Sechenov).
- Extroverts have more than introverts.
Accordingly, this type of hypothesis is characterized by certain connections between phenomena.
Examples of type B hypotheses:
- Centrifugal force balances gravity and reduces it to zero (K.E. Tsiolkovsky).
- the child contributes to the development of his intellectual abilities.
This type of hypothesis is based on independent and dependent variables, relationships between them, as well as levels of additional variables.
Hypothesis, disposition, sanction
Examples of these concepts are considered within the framework of legal knowledge as elements of a legal norm. It should also be noted that the very question of the structure of rules of law in jurisprudence is the object of discussion for both domestic and foreign scientific thought.
A hypothesis in jurisprudence is a part of a norm that determines the conditions for the action of this norm, the facts under which it begins to function.
A hypothesis within the law can express aspects such as the place/time of a certain event; affiliation of the subject to a specific state; the timing of the entry into force of the legal norm; the state of health of the subject, affecting the possibility of exercising a particular right, etc. An example of a hypothesis of a rule of law: “A child of unknown parents found on the territory of the Russian Federation becomes a citizen of the Russian Federation.” Accordingly, the location of the incident and the affiliation of the subject to a specific state are indicated. In this case, a simple hypothesis holds. In law, examples of such hypotheses are quite common. A simple hypothesis is based on one circumstance (fact) under which it comes into effect. Also, a hypothesis can be complex if we are talking about two or more circumstances. In addition, there is an alternative type of hypothesis that involves actions of a different nature, equated by law to each other for one reason or another.
The disposition is aimed at consolidating the rights and obligations of participants in legal relations, indicating their possible and proper behavior. Like a hypothesis, a disposition can have a simple, complex, or alternative form. A simple disposition deals with one legal consequence; in complex - about two or more, occurring simultaneously or in combination; in an alternative disposition - about consequences of different nature (“either or”).
A sanction, in turn, is part of a norm indicating coercive measures to ensure rights and obligations. In many cases, sanctions are aimed at specific types of legal liability. From the point of view of certainty, there are two types of sanctions: absolutely certain and relatively certain. In the first case, we are talking about legal consequences that do not provide for any alternatives (invalidity, transfer of ownership, fine, etc.). In the second case, several solution options can be considered (for example, in the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation it can be a fine or imprisonment; the scope of the sentence is for example, from 5 to 10 years, etc.). Sanctions can also be punitive and restorative.
Analysis of the structure of a legal norm
Accordingly, the structure “hypothesis - disposition - sanction” (examples of a legal norm) can be presented in the following form: HYPOTHESIS (“if..”) → DISPOSITION (“then..”) → SANCTION (“otherwise..”). However, in reality, all three elements in a rule of law are quite rare at the same time. More often we are dealing with a two-member structure, which can be of two types:
1. Regulatory norms of law: hypothesis-disposition. In turn, they can be divided into obligatory, prohibiting and empowering.
2. Protective rules of law: hypothesis-sanction. There can also be three types: absolutely certain, relatively certain and alternative (see classification of sanctions).
Moreover, the hypothesis does not necessarily have to be at the beginning of the legal norm. Compliance with a certain structure distinguishes a rule of law from an individual prescription (designed for a one-time action), as well as from general principles of law (which do not distinguish hypotheses and sanctions that regulate relations without much certainty).
Let's look at examples of hypothesis, disposition, sanctions in articles. Regulatory norms of law: “Able-bodied children who have reached the age of 18 must take care of disabled parents” (Constitution of the Russian Federation, Part 3, Article 38). The first part of the norm concerning able-bodied children over 18 years of age is a hypothesis. It, as befits a hypothesis, indicates the conditions for the action of the norm - the order of its entry into force. An indication of the need to care for disabled parents is a disposition that establishes a certain obligation. Thus, the elements of a legal norm in this case are a hypothesis and a disposition - an example of a binding norm.
“A contractor who improperly performed the work does not have the right to refer to the fact that the customer did not exercise control and supervision over their implementation, except...” (Civil Code of the Russian Federation, Part 4, Article 748). These are examples of the hypothesis and disposition of a prohibitive norm.
Protective norms of law: “For harm caused to minors under 14 years of age, their parents are responsible...” (Civil Code of the Russian Federation, Part 1, Article 1073). This is a structure: a hypothesis-sanction, an example of an absolutely definite legal norm. This type represents the only exact condition (the harm caused by the minor) in combination with the only exact sanction (parental responsibility). Hypotheses in protective legal norms indicate violations.
An example of an alternative legal norm: “Fraud committed by a group of persons by prior conspiracy... is punishable by a fine of up to 300 thousand rubles, or in the amount of wages or other income of the convicted person for a period of up to 2 years, or by compulsory labor for a period of up to 480 hours.. .” (Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, Art. 159, paragraph 2); “Fraud committed by a person using his official position... is punishable by a fine in the amount of 100 thousand to 500 thousand rubles” (Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, Art. 159, paragraph 3). Accordingly, the facts of fraud in question are examples of scientific hypotheses, and certain alternatives to liability for these crimes are examples of sanctions.
Hypothesis within psychological research
If we are talking about psychological scientific research based on methods, then the hypothesis in this case must first of all meet such requirements as clarity and conciseness. As noted by E.V. Sidorenko, thanks to these hypotheses, the researcher, in the course of calculations, actually gets a clear picture of what he has established.
It is customary to distinguish between the null and alternative statistical hypotheses. In the first case, we are talking about the absence of differences in the characteristics under study, according to the formula X 1 -X 2 = 0. In turn, X 1, X 2 are the values of the characteristics by which the comparison is carried out. Accordingly, if the goal of our research is to prove differences between the values of features, then we want to refute the null hypothesis.
In the case of an alternative hypothesis, the statistical significance of the differences is stated. Thus, the alternative hypothesis is the statement we seek to prove. It is also called the experimental hypothesis. It should be noted that in some cases, the researcher may, on the contrary, seek to prove the null hypothesis if this corresponds to the goals of his experiment.
The following examples of hypotheses in psychology can be given:
Null hypothesis (H 0): The tendency of an increase (decrease) of a characteristic when moving from one sample to another is random.
Alternative hypothesis (H 1): The tendency of an increase (decrease) of a characteristic when moving from one sample to another is not random.
Let's assume that a series of trainings were conducted in a group of children with high levels of anxiety to reduce this anxiety. Measurements of this indicator were made before and after the trainings, respectively. It is necessary to determine whether the difference between these measurements is statistically significant. The null hypothesis (H 0) will have the following form: the tendency for a decrease in the level of anxiety in the group after the training is random. In turn, the alternative hypothesis (H 1) will sound like: the tendency for a decrease in the level of anxiety in the group after the training is not accidental.
After applying one or another mathematical criterion (for example, the G-sign criterion), the researcher can draw a conclusion about the statistical significance / insignificance of the resulting “shift” in relation to the characteristic being studied (anxiety level). If the indicator is statistically significant, the alternative hypothesis is accepted, and the null hypothesis is accordingly rejected. Otherwise, the null hypothesis is accepted.
Also in psychology, there may be an identification of a connection (correlation) between two or several variables, which is also reflected by the research hypothesis. Example:
H 0: the correlation between the student’s concentration indicator and the indicator of his success in completing the control task does not differ from 0.
H 1: the correlation between the student’s concentration indicator and the indicator of his success in completing the control task is statistically significantly different from 0.
In addition, examples of scientific hypotheses in psychological research that require statistical confirmation may relate to the distribution of a trait (empirical and theoretical level), the degree of consistency of changes (when comparing two traits or their hierarchies), etc.
Hypothesis in sociology
For example, if we are talking about student failure at a university, it is necessary to analyze its causes. What hypotheses can a sociologist put forward in this case? A.I. Kravchenko gives the following examples of hypotheses in sociological research:
- Low quality of teaching in a number of subjects.
- Distracting university students from the educational process for additional income.
- Low level of demands of the university administration towards the academic performance and discipline of students.
- Costs of competitive admission to a university.
It is important that examples of scientific hypotheses meet the requirements of clarity and specificity, relating only directly to the subject of research. The correctness of the formulation of hypotheses, as a rule, determines the correctness of the choice of research methods. This requirement is the same for constructing hypotheses in all forms of scientific sociological work - be it a hypothesis in a seminar class or a hypothesis in a thesis. An example of low academic performance at a university, in the case of choosing a hypothesis about the negative impact of part-time work for students, can be considered within the framework of the method of a simple survey of respondents. If the hypothesis about the low quality of teaching is chosen, it is necessary to use an expert survey. In turn, if we are talking about the costs of competitive selection, we can use the method of correlation analysis - when comparing the performance indicators of students at a given university with different admission conditions.
Let us remind you that hypothesis- this is the part that reveals the conditions (circumstances), in the presence or absence of which the action of this rule is possible, that is, it contains indications of specific life circumstances, the conditions under which this rule of law comes into effect.
In particular, a hypothesis can express:
- the timing of the entry into force of the legal norm;
- reaching a certain age of a citizen - subject of law;
- time and place of a particular event;
- “belonging” of a citizen to a particular state;
- state of health on which the possibility of exercising the right depends.
Examples of hypotheses
A minor who has reached the age of sixteen (hypothesis) can be declared fully capable (disposition) if he works under an employment contract (continuation of the hypothesis) (Article 27 of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation on emancipation). In the norms of family law there are conditions for marriage: “Marriage is concluded in the civil registry office” (clause I of Article 10 of the RF IC) - a condition of the place or body of marriage.
“The rights and obligations of the spouses arise from the date of registration of the marriage...” (Clause 2 of Article 10 of the Family Code) - a condition for the moment the marriage legal relationship arises.
Classifications and types of hypotheses
Hypothesis - an element of a rule of law indicating the conditions of its operation (time, place, subject composition, etc.), which are determined by consolidation. A hypothesis is a part of a legal norm that indicates life circumstances in the presence of which certain subjects enter into relationships with each other.
Hypotheses can be simple or complex. Simple hypotheses indicate one condition for the implementation of the norm (Article 242 of the Criminal Procedure Code of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as the Code of Criminal Procedure of the Russian Federation) - the unchanged composition of the court as a condition for considering the case or Article 21 of the Code of Criminal Procedure of the Russian Federation - in case of detection of signs of a crime, the prosecutor, investigator, inquiry agency or interrogator take measures to establish the events of the crime, expose the person or persons guilty of committing the crime), complex - under several conditions (clause 1 of Article 72 of the Family Code of the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as the Family Code of the Russian Federation) - parents (one of them) can be restored to parental rights in cases where they have changed their behavior, lifestyle and (or) attitude towards raising a child ). Complex hypotheses can be cumulative and alternative.
Cumulative the hypothesis connects the implementation of a norm with the simultaneous presence of several conditions.
Alternative the hypothesis makes the implementation of the norm dependent on the occurrence of one of several conditions.
In addition, in terms of the degree of certainty, hypotheses can be absolutely certain (simple), relatively certain (complex) and even indefinite (“if necessary”), and in terms of the method of presentation - casuistic and abstract.
Rice. 1. Types of hypotheses
According to the degree of complexity (depending on the structure), hypotheses are divided into:
- on homogeneous (simple). They indicate one circumstance, the presence or absence of which is associated with the effect of a legal norm. Example:“The validity period of a power of attorney cannot exceed three years” (clause I of Article 186 of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation);
- compound (complex). In them, the validity of a rule of law is made dependent on the presence or absence of two or more circumstances at the same time. Example. Conditions for marriage for those entering into marriage: firstly, mutual voluntary consent of a man and a woman, as well as reaching the age of marriage (Article 12 of the RF IC); secondly, the absence of circumstances preventing marriage (Article 14 of the RF IC - the marital status of one of the spouses, close relationship, as well as incapacity recognized by the court);
- alternative. They contain several conditions, and if any of them is present, this legal norm begins to apply. Example:“In cases where the buyer, in violation of the law, other legal acts or the purchase and sale agreement, does not accept the goods or refuses to accept them, the seller has the right to require the buyer to accept the goods...” (Clause 3 of Article 484 of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation);
- complex-alternative. In this case, the hypotheses have both complexity and alternativeness.
Based on the presence or absence of legal facts (circumstances):
- positive - indicate the need for certain conditions for the norm to apply;
- negative - assume that the application of a rule of law is carried out in the absence of the conditions specified in the hypothesis. Thus, failure to provide assistance to a patient by a medical professional is considered a negative hypothesis. For this, a measure of legal liability is established.
According to the form of expression:
- are common. They indicate common features, for example, the general condition for the operation of all criminal law norms - reaching the age of criminal responsibility;
- private. They indicate more specific signs. Thus, the condition for the validity of criminal law norms regulating liability for official crimes is the presence of a special subject, i.e. an official.
Based on the form of expression of the hypothesis in the literature, it is also called abstract And casuistic.
Teaching schoolchildren special knowledge, as well as developing their general skills necessary for research is one of the main practical tasks of modern education.
General research skills and abilities are: the ability to see problems; to ask questions; put forward hypotheses; define concepts; classify; observation skills and abilities; conducting experiments; ability to draw conclusions and inferences; skills in structuring material; working with text; the ability to prove and defend your ideas.
The logic of each study is specific. The researcher proceeds from the nature of the problem, the goals and objectives of the work, the specific material at his disposal, the level of research equipment and his capabilities. Let's turn to the main categories of research work and analyze an approximate algorithm for developing research programs.
Problem research as a category offers the study of the unknown in science, which remains to be discovered, proven, studied from new positions. A problem is a difficulty, an uncertainty. To eliminate a problem, actions are required, first of all, these are actions aimed at investigating everything related to this problem situation. Finding problems is not easy. Finding a problem is often harder and more educational than solving it. When performing this part of research work with a child, one should be flexible and should not necessarily demand a clear understanding and formulation of the problem, or a clear designation of the goal. Its general, approximate characteristics are quite sufficient.
The ability to see problems is an integral property that characterizes human thinking.
One of the most important properties in identifying problems is the ability to change your own point of view, to look at the object of study from different angles. After all, if you look at the same object from different points of view, you will definitely see something that eludes the traditional view and is often not noticed by others.
Subject reflects the problem in its characteristic features. A successful, semantically accurate formulation of the topic clarifies the problem, outlines the scope of the study, and specifies the main idea, thereby creating the prerequisites for the success of the work as a whole.
Rules for choosing a topic
- The topic should be interesting to the child and should captivate him.
- The topic must be feasible and its solution must bring real benefits to the research participants.
- The topic must be original, it must have an element of surprise and unusualness.
- The topic should be such that the work can be completed relatively quickly.
- When helping a student choose a topic, try to stay closer to the area in which you yourself feel gifted.
- The teacher should also feel like a researcher.
When starting to work on a topic, it is very important to have a plan, at least in the most general form. It will help the student find, collect, and accumulate primary sources on the topic. As we study and become familiar with the literature, the adopted plan will certainly change. However, an indicative plan will make it possible to connect a variety of information into a single whole. Therefore, such a plan must be drawn up as early as possible, and the help of the work manager is indispensable in its preparation.
Relevance the chosen topic justifies the need for research.
An object research is an area within which the study of a set of connections, relationships and properties is conducted as a source of information necessary for the researcher.
Item research is more specific and includes only those connections and relationships that are subject to direct study in this work; it establishes the boundaries of scientific research in each object. A subject is always studied within the framework of some object.
In order not to deviate from the chosen topic, it is necessary to clearly and accurately imagine the purpose and objectives of the study. Determining them will allow the student to collect and process material more economically and with greater purposefulness.
Target it is formulated briefly and extremely precisely, semantically expressing the main thing that the researcher intends to do. As a rule, the goal begins with verbs: “to find out”, “to identify”, “to form”, “to justify”, “to carry out”, etc.
The goal is specified and developed in research objectives. Problems indicate a set of problems that need to be solved during the experiment. Tasks can reflect a certain step-by-step approach to achieving a goal, a sequence of actions. Solving a problem allows you to go through a certain stage of research. The formulation of tasks is closely related to the structure of the study, and individual tasks can be set for both the theoretical (review of the literature on the problem) and the experimental part of the study. Objectives determine the content of the study and the structure of the text of the work.
Research hypothesis– this is a detailed assumption that sets out in detail the model, methodology, system of measures, that is, the technology of that innovation, as a result of which the goal of the research is expected to be achieved. There may be several hypotheses - some of them will be confirmed, some will not. As a rule, a hypothesis is formulated in the form of a complex sentence (“If..., then...” or “Than..., then...”). When making assumptions, the words usually used are: perhaps, suppose, suppose, perhaps, that if, perhaps. During the experiment, the hypothesis is clarified, supplemented, developed or rejected.
A hypothesis is a basis, an assumption, a judgment about the natural connection of phenomena. Children often express a variety of hypotheses about what they see, hear, and feel. Many interesting hypotheses are born as a result of attempts to find answers to one’s own questions. A hypothesis is a prediction of events. Initially, a hypothesis is neither true nor false - it is simply undefined. Once it is confirmed, it becomes a theory; if it is refuted, it also ceases to exist, turning from a hypothesis into a false assumption.
The first thing that makes a hypothesis come into being is a problem. Methods for testing hypotheses are usually divided into two large groups: theoretical and empirical. The first involves relying on logic and analysis of other theories (existing knowledge) within the framework of which this hypothesis is put forward. Empirical methods for testing hypotheses involve observation and experimentation.
Building hypotheses is the basis of research and creative thinking. Hypotheses make it possible to discover and then evaluate their probability through theoretical analysis, thought or real experiments. Thus, hypotheses make it possible to see the problem in a different light, to look at the situation from a different angle.
The choice of specific research techniques and methods is determined, first of all, by the nature of the object of study, the subject, purpose and objectives of the study. Methodology is a set of techniques, research methods, the order of their application and the type of interpretation of the results obtained with their help. In other words, scientific research methods are a way of studying objects of research.
Scientific Research Methods:
1. Methods aimed at the theoretical study of the problem, for example, the study of literary sources, written, archival materials;
2. Methods that ensure obtaining practical results from researching a problem: observation, conversation, questioning.
Research methods provide greater accuracy and depth of study of the selected problem, and provide solutions to the problems posed in the work.
A necessary component of the program is the establishment of research deadlines. The time frame must be sufficient to check the reproducibility, reliability and stability of the results, their discussion and testing.
Main stages of the study:
- The first stage - preparatory - includes choosing a problem and topic, defining and preparing an object and subject, developing goals and objectives, research hypotheses, preparing tools, training research participants, choosing methods and developing research methodology.
- The second stage - constructing (staged, creating) - contains the research itself (it can also be divided into stages).
- The third stage is corrective: this is the formulation of preliminary conclusions, their testing and clarification.
- The fourth stage is the control stage.
- Fifth - final - summing up and recording the results.
The objectives, timing and research plan must correspond to the object, subject and purpose chosen for the research.
No less important is the ability to present the results of your research in public; here are several models for protecting research work:
I. “Classical”.
Oral presentation focuses on fundamental issues:
1. research topic and its relevance;
2. the range of sources used and the main scientific approaches to the problem;
3. novelty of the work (study of little-known sources, movement of a new version, new approaches to solving problems, etc.);
4. main conclusions on the content of the abstract.
II. “Individual”.
Personal aspects of working on the abstract are revealed:
1. justification for choosing the topic of the abstract;
2. ways of working on an abstract;
3. original findings, own judgments, interesting points;
4. personal significance of the work done;
5. prospects for continuing the research.
III “Creative” protection involves:
1. design of a stand with documentary and illustrative material on the research topic, their commentary;
2. demonstration of slides, video recordings, listening to audio recordings prepared during the abstracting process;
3. bright, original presentation of a fragment of the main part of the abstract, etc.
The criteria for evaluating students' research works, as well as a memo for young researchers, are presented in Appendix No. 1.2
Human life is a movement along the path of knowledge. Each step enriches us if, thanks to new experience, we begin to see what we had not previously noticed or understood. But questions to the world are, first of all, questions to yourself. It is important that in the process of organizing students’ research activities, the situation of predetermined uncertainty is maintained, thanks to which the entire system of interaction between participants in the educational process begins to be built in a completely special way.
Distance educational project for students in grades 7-11 “Ladder of Success.” 2007
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Research hypothesis. Research methods
Don't be afraid of unusual ideas and "crazy" answers!
Be bolder and more relaxed in your thoughts and fantasies!
Remember, you are talented and capable of brilliant discoveries!
Having established the need for a problem situation to organize research and determine its (research) topic, we will try to determine the methods and techniques for resolving it.
You cannot solve a problem without outlining a way to resolve it. We can find ways to solve a problem only if we admit the fact of possibility or impossibility. That is, to solve the problem it is necessary to assume or assume something. According to encyclopedic data, any assumption or guess can be a hypothesis. Therefore, in order to find ways to solve a problem problem, it is necessary to put forward a hypothesis.
First, let's try to figure out what a hypothesis is, what hypotheses exist, and what characteristics it should have.
A hypothesis can simultaneously be a scientifically based assumption, a set of influences and a system of measures to implement research objectives.
Techniques for constructing hypotheses differ in form, level, nature, mechanism of formation, logical structure and functional purpose.
|
Form |
“if... then...” “if... then..., since...” |
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|
Level |
Empirical research Theoretical research |
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|
Character |
Modification Revolutionizing |
|
|
Formation mechanism |
Simple: inductive or deductive Complex: inductive-deductive |
|
|
Logical structure |
Linear (1 guess) Branched (possible consequences) |
|
|
Functional purpose |
Explanatory Predictive Mixed |
The form of the hypothesis consists in using a unique formula when formulating and writing the text of the hypothesis: “if..., then..., since...”. In this case, the expression “since”, aimed at revealing the essence of the phenomenon and constructing cause-and-effect relationships, is used, as a rule, for hypotheses that correspond to the theoretical level of the study.
The level of the hypothesis lies in its correspondence to the level of the research being conducted: empirical or theoretical.
Since empirical research is based on the results of experience, a hypothesis is formulated about the assumption of change (or non-change) of a specific phenomenon or fact, i.e. empirical research and its hypothesis serve the function of establishing new facts for the subsequent development of theory.
For the theoretical level of research, a hypothesis is formulated to test theoretical knowledge, for example, a consequence of a theory. The specificity of a hypothesis at this level is that it is, like a theoretical study, generalizing and applicable to a whole group of objects or phenomena being studied, aimed at revealing their essence, establishing the causes of the relationships between parameters subject to experimental research.
According to their functional purpose, hypotheses can be divided into types.
According to the content of the hypotheses, they are divided into:
informational hypotheses
instrumental hypotheses.
Moving on to the formulation of the multifactorial content of the hypothesis, the researcher transforms its content into an instrumental character, which already presupposes the construction of a system of measures and control influences that ensure the achievement of the research goal.
According to the mechanism of formation, hypotheses can be divided into simple (inductive and deductive) and complex (inductive-deductive).
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The mechanism for constructing a hypothesis |
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Simple hypothesis |
Basis of construction |
Result |
Logical chain |
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Inductive |
Observing a fact or phenomenon |
Generalization prediction |
From particular to general |
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Deductive |
Analysis of theoretical material |
Predicting possibilities (consequences) from a general pattern |
From general to specific |
Let us briefly consider the mechanism for constructing an inductive hypothesis. It consists of constructing, on the basis of observed experience or given facts, a predictive generalizing conclusion related to a group of phenomena similar to the one being studied. The experimenter's train of thought - from the particular to the general - includes the assumptions accepted by the researcher, the assumptions developed on their basis, and the hypothesis induced from them.
A deductive hypothesis is built from a general theoretical position by developing a series of assumptions that follow from it. Conclusions and assumptions are deduced from the assumptions made. The experimenter's train of thought is from the abstract (general) to the concrete.
An inductive-deductive hypothesis includes elements of the two previous types of hypotheses and contains a sequence of procedures for synthesizing theoretical fragments - assumptions into new theoretical knowledge, based on the analysis of which a prediction of previously unknown aspects and properties of the object being studied is deduced.
By its nature, a hypothesis can be revolutionary (putting forward a fundamentally new position) or a modification of known laws, based on the assumption that some laws exist in areas where their effect has not yet been revealed.
According to the logical structure, hypotheses can be linear in nature, when one assumption is put forward and tested, or branched, when several assumptions need to be tested.
Main characteristics of the research hypothesis
When formulating a hypothesis, it is necessary to take into account such an important characteristic as testability, which presupposes the availability of adequate methods or techniques for testing this hypothesis.
How to formulate a hypothesis?
There are many methods for constructing hypotheses (essentially, searching for new ideas). Let's name just a few of them. This:
Brain attack - a collective method of searching for new ideas and solutions.
The analogy is symbolic - an analogy that summarizes a problem in a few words.
Association method based on a person’s ability to transform previously acquired knowledge so that it can be used for new conditions.
Inversion method involving consideration of the problem from positions opposite to those accepted.
Let's try to analyze the problem situation more specifically. Let's try to approach the understanding of an object or phenomenon that has aroused interest from various angles, using an elementary example.
Problematic situation. I like jam that is not very sweet, and I tried adding less sugar when cooking than according to the recipe, but such jam does not last very long. How to make jam that is not too sweet, that will be stored for a long time and will not spoil?
Let us formulate some possible hypotheses. Let's try to put forward a hypothesis, for which we will use several methods for formulating (constructing) a hypothesis from the above.
Hypothesis No. 1. If you cook the jam longer, it will be stored well.
Hypothesis No. 2. If the jam prepared according to the modified recipe is placed in the refrigerator, it will be stored much longer.
Hypothesis No. 3. I'll try to find another jam recipe that requires less sugar.
Hypothesis No. 4. If you change the processing technology of jars for storing jam, then the jam will be stored longer.
Hypothesis No. 5. If I make jam from other berries (unsweetened) and add the amount of sugar required by the recipe, the jam will last longer.
Hypothesis No. 6. It is possible that I will never be able to make jam to my taste.
So, we are faced with a problem, and we have suggested options for resolving it. How can you convincingly prove the correctness or error of your thoughts? How to test your guesses (hypotheses)?
Methods for testing a hypothesis.
based on logic and analysis of existing knowledge, information received,
based on observations, experiences, experiments,
So, you can begin to resolve a problem situation by putting forward a hypothesis based on existing knowledge, experience, imagining, and at the same time applying methods for searching for new ideas, and deciding on ways to test the hypothesis.
Research methods
Knowledge not born from experience
mother of all certainty,
barren and full of errors.
Leonardo da Vinci
A method is a set of methods and techniques for the development of scientific knowledge. Research methods should be determined already at the stage of hypothesis formation. The goal of science is to use accessible, accurate, modern and reliable methods to explain phenomena, their essence, importance, causal relationships, etc. Consequently, mmethod - it's a tool, promoting progress in scientific knowledge. The maturity of scientific methods is an indicator of the level of development of a particular scientific discipline. In this case, the method must be defined and incorporated into the hypothesis at the level of its formation.
Classification of research methods
The methods or combination of methods used must be selected so as to test the possibility of applying a hypothesis, theory, model to a specific situation.
The selected research methods should ensure:
reliability - sufficiency for objective characterization of a phenomenon or object;
validity - the adequacy of the selected attribute of the indicator to what exactly the experimenter wants to evaluate
fully possess information about the variables and factors under study, their possible grouping;
choose a research method and own it;
study all possible errors that arise due to objective and subjective reasons.
Further, the selected methods must ensure the sufficiency of obtaining information and ensure its (information) reliability. When using the method, ALL requirements of the method must be met. An elementary example: schoolchildren study the quality of drinking water purification in order to determine its compliance with SanPiN requirements. At the same time, methods of qualitative and quantitative analysis of tap water were selected. At first glance, everything is correct. However, the sampling site is home taps, and the condition of the water supply networks in the houses where the children live differs significantly from each other. And in fact, schoolchildren conduct research on the condition of the water supply in each specific house.
Sometimes the correctness of the chosen research methods smoothly turns into humanity. It is one thing to study the negative impact of, say, some harmful environment on some living organisms and calmly state the fact of the death of these living organisms, and quite another thing to create conditions leading to the death of the organisms yourself. This is inevitable when conducting scientific research; science requires no less sacrifice than beauty. Almost any collecting, for example, is associated with the death of living organisms. But there are works in which these methods are not justified by the tasks set and their results are programmed by elementary logic and are unlikely to need this kind of confirmation.
Analysis and synthesis (theoretical research methods)
Theoretical research methods include analysis and synthesis.
If we take the traditional actions of a teacher in a lesson as an example, then when conducting an analysis, the researcher can break them down into separate components and analyze them separately. But for a researcher, describing individual actions of a teacher in a lesson is not enough; he must combine these actions and note what changes occur in the actions of students when the teacher’s actions change. That is, to carry out synthesis.
! Analysis and synthesis are closely related.
When analyzing documentary materials, again, two methods are distinguished:
traditional, classical, which means the researcher’s interpretation of the information contained in documentary materials and identification of their essence;
qualitative analysis involves identifying the authorship of a document and the time of its creation, goals, and the situation that caused the appearance of the document.
In studies of schoolchildren, we will most often have to deal primarily with three types of comparison:
comparison of phenomena or objects according to one characteristic (for example, comparison of the speed of falling of objects of different areas, but of the same mass);
comparison of homogeneous phenomena or objects on several grounds (for example, comparison of the knowledge and skills of students from control and experimental groups in terms of the speed of knowledge acquisition, the strength of knowledge acquisition, the ability to creatively use knowledge);
comparison of different stages in the development of one phenomenon (for example, comparison of the life cycle of plants of the same species in the city and in the forest in spring, summer and autumn).
Observation (empirical research methods)
Observation is direct, purposeful perception and recording of phenomena and processes.
Any empirical research must begin with observation and analysis of documents available on the problem being studied.
Chronological observation is the first method used by many sciences, including pedagogy, psychology, sociology, and physiology.
observe,
notice all the little things,
monitor the implementation of certain activities,
monitor the development of the situation,
systematize and group facts.
Lavalism is manifested in:
preliminary study of materials and analysis of phenomena,
in preparation for observation,
and also that all stages of the observation process are planned in advance,
the forms of records, etc. are determined.
Systematicity presupposes consistent work, excluding fragmentary observations, in which it can:
a distorted image of the object arises,
revaluation of non-essential indicators,
underestimation of important indicators occurs
Basic requirements for the observation method.
Observation must have a specific purpose.
Observation must take place according to a pre-developed plan.
The number of characteristics studied should be minimal and they should be precisely defined.
Phenomena or objects should be observed in real natural conditions (if the observation is not a phase of the experiment).
Information obtained through various observations must be comparable.
Observations should be repeated at regular intervals.
It is desirable that the observer knows (foresees) what errors may occur during observation and prevents them.
The reliability of information during observation largely depends on the method of recording what is observed, on how records are kept. Any empirical research must begin with observation and analysis of documents available on the problem being studied.
Survey (empirical research methods)
One of the most common methods in research is the survey method. A survey involves obtaining answers to questions asked by the researcher.
The peculiarity of this method is that the source of information is a verbal message, the judgment of the interviewee.
The survey allows you to obtain information about value orientations, attitudes, opinions and assessments, motives of behavior, organizational climate, etc.
There are three types of survey:
questionnaire - written correspondence survey;
interview - oral conversation, face-to-face survey;
sociometric survey.
Questionnaire (empirical research methods)
A questionnaire (questionnaire) is a set of questions or items (items) ordered by content and form.
The reliability and validity of the information obtained as a result of the survey are largely determined by the design features of the questions included in the questionnaire. This places certain demands on their formulation.
When preparing the questionnaire, you must proceed from the following rules for formulating questions:
1. The question must correspond to the goals and objectives of the study
2. Each question should be logically separate.
3. The wording of the question should be clear to all respondents, so highly technical terms should be avoided. Questions should be appropriate to the level of development of respondents, including the level of the least prepared.
4. You should not ask too long questions.
5. You should strive to ensure that the questions stimulate respondents to actively participate in the survey and increase their interest in the problem under study.
6. The question should not suggest an answer or impose one or another option on the respondent. It should be formulated neutrally.
7. A balance of possible positive and negative responses must be maintained. Otherwise, the question may suggest to the respondent the direction of the answer.
Questions (empirical research methods)
By content all asked questions are divided into two large groups: questions about facts and events and questions about respondents’ assessments of these events.
The first group includes questions about the behavior and activities of the respondent, as well as questions relating to his life path. The second group includes evaluative-attitude questions such as: “How would you rate...? What do you think...?"
Each of these two blocks of questions has its own specifics.
The quality of a survey largely depends on the extent to which respondents are able and willing to answer the questions asked sincerely. There are often cases when respondents refuse to give or deliberately distort their assessment of certain events and find it difficult to answer questions about the motives of their behavior.
By function There are four types of questions: basic, filtering, control, contact. If basic questions are designed to obtain information about organizational facts, then the purpose of filter questions is to weed out incompetent respondents. The function of security questions is to clarify the veracity of answers to basic questions.
This is a kind of modification of the main question, its different verbal formulation. Contact questions allow you to establish a friendly relationship between the researcher and the respondent and overcome possible alienation.
Depending on the structure, questions can be open or closed. In open-ended questions, the respondent formulates the answer himself. Closed ones contain a list of answer options, and the respondent selects from this “fan” the answer that is acceptable to him.
There are three types of closed questions:
1) “yes-no”;
2) alternative, involving the choice of one answer from a list of possible ones;
3) menu questions that allow the respondent to select several answers at the same time.
Such a question might look like this:
Please indicate in what situations you had conflicts with other employees over the past two months:
1) when performing my direct work;
2) if necessary, share your experience;
3) if necessary, obtain assistance from other employees;
4) if necessary, replace absent employees;
5) in other cases (specify which ones).
Choosing an answer from a set of proposed options suggests the possibility of organizational conflicts arising in a number of named situations.
For a more compact arrangement of questions in the questionnaire
they can be presented in tabular form, although filling out a questionnaire with tabular questions often causes difficulties for some people.
The questionnaire is not a simple sum of questions, it has a certain structure. To determine the size of the questionnaire and the number of questions in it, one should be guided by the purpose of the study, anticipate the results of the questionnaire and their practical use. The questionnaire usually consists of three parts: introductory, main and biographical. The introductory part is an appeal to the respondent, which indicates the purpose of the survey, the conditions of anonymity of the survey, the directions for using its results, and the rules for filling out the questionnaire.
In the main part of the questionnaire contains questions about facts, behavior, products of activity, motives, assessments and opinions of respondents.
The last part of the questionnaire includes questions about the socio-demographic and biographical information of the respondent.
Interviewing (empirical research methods)
Interviewing is most often used in cases of:
when drawing up a program for organizational and psychological research (if an organization is included in the field of research);
if the study involves a very small number of respondents;
if the respondent’s opinion is particularly important (his opinion is the opinion of an expert in this matter).
The direction of the interview is determined by the problem being studied, as well as the goals of the study.
Depending on the degree of rigidity of the interview pattern, there are two types:
standardized
non-standardized
A non-standardized interview suggests the possibility of varying the sequence, wording, and number of questions asked and differs from a standardized interview in greater flexibility. At the same time, the latter ensures greater comparability of information and efficiency in summarizing results
It is important to choose a convenient time and place for conducting surveys and interviews.
This will help to reveal the true opinions of respondents, sometimes constrained by unacceptable survey conditions.
These include the presence of other people, lack of time, etc. In these cases, respondents may not express their personal opinion, but hide it behind the most common one.
It is also important to create a friendly interview atmosphere. To do this, you should use the expert’s introductory speech and a kind of psychological “warm-up”.
Sociometric survey (empirical research methods)
A specific type of survey is a sociometric survey.
The term “sociometry” translated means the measurement of social relationships.
The main difference between sociometry from other types of survey is the ability to use it to identify mutual feelings of sympathy and hostility between members of the work group and on this basis to obtain a quantitative assessment of interpersonal relationships in it.
The main tool for conducting a sociometric survey is a sociometric map (sociomap), which is filled out by each member of the organizational group.
Analysis of sociometric cards allows us to establish various manifestations of interpersonal relationships:
predisposition
preference (positive choice)
rejection
avoidance (negative choice)
neglect
ignoring
Literature
1. Alexander Pentin. Academic research and what it is not. http://www.lgo.ru/model10.htm
2. Klimenyuk A.V., Kalita A.A., Berezhnaya E.P. Methodology and techniques of pedagogical research. Setting the goals and objectives of the study. K., 1988. – 100 p.-P.37
3. G.B. Golub, O.V. Churakova Methodological recommendations “Project method as a technology for developing key competencies of students” Samara 2003
4. http://www.abitu.ru/researcher/development/ist_0003.html– A.V. Leontovich. The material is devoted to the problem of using research as a means of developing modern education.
4. Intel ® “Training for the Future” (with the support of Microsoft) 4th edition, M, 2004, general edition E.N. Yastrebtseva and Ya.S. Bykhovsky.
5. Alchemy of the project: Methodological developments of mini-trainings for students and teachers of the Intel ® “Training for the Future” program, edited by E.N. Yastrebtseva and Ya.S. Bykhovsky, M, 2004.
6. http://www.zarealie.nm.ru/u15.htm- Bloom's pyramid
7. http://www.iteach.ru/ website of Intel's educational program "TeachtotheFuture".
8. Presentation materials by Elena Gergardovna Tissen, a methodologist at the MOU DPOS “Center for Media Education” in Tolyatti.
9. http://www.iteach.ru/metodika/buharkina Didactic material “Practical work on the topic “Development of an educational project””, senior researcher at the distance learning laboratory of IOSE RAO, candidate of pedagogical sciences Bukharkina M.Yu., Moscow 2003.
10. http://www.ioso.ru/distant/project/meth%20project/4.htm PROJECT METHOD
Doctor of Pedagogical Sciences, prof. POLAT E.S., IOSO RAO
11.http://www.researcher.ru/methodics/home/a_xmi1t.html Theoretical, empirical, and science fiction research topics in homeschooling. Savenkov Alexander Ilyich “Theoretical” research
12. http://www.researcher.ru/teor/teor_0007.html Approaches to the problem of motivation at school and educational and research activities. Borzenko Vladimir Igorevich – Candidate of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Obukhov Alexey Sergeevich – Candidate of Psychological Sciences.
MOU DPOS "Center for Media Education", Tolyatti
Web-site of the project “Ladder of Success”:http://www.mec.tgl.ru/ section "Distance projects"
e-mail:[email protected]