According to the demographic forecast of Rosstat, natural population decline will increase and from 2025 will exceed 400 thousand people annually; a slowdown in population decline is predicted only closer to the 2030s. International migration (according to the forecast, the influx of migrants will be less than 300 thousand people per year) in the future will not be able to compensate for the population decline.
In December 2017, the head of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection, Maxim Topilin, said that the birth rate in Russia is insufficient to ensure population growth, and in the coming years the situation will only worsen, as the number of women of childbearing age in the country will decrease by a quarter or even more.
“The number of women of reproductive age will decrease by 28% by 2032 or 2035.” Unfortunately, it is not possible to assume that in this situation the absolute number of births will remain at the level of 1.8-1.9 million,” said Topilin.
The birth rate in the Russian Federation in 2017 was the lowest in the last 10 years
(Video: RBC TV channel)
Ramilya Khasanova, a researcher at the Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting at RANEPA, explained to RBC that the birth rate will decline in the next 15 years due to the fact that most current mothers were born in the 1990s, when the birth rate was low.
“The number of women - potential mothers is small, and therefore the number of births is also falling,” the expert explained.
Earlier, the head of the Ministry of Economic Development, Maxim Oreshkin, classified the demographic situation in Russia as one. The minister noted that a sharp reduction in the size of the working-age population will be led by the fact that Russians born at the very end of the 1990s, when the maximum decline in the birth rate was recorded in its composition, are beginning to be taken into account.
“The generation is very small, so the negative dynamics in terms of the working-age population will continue. The situation from a demographic point of view is one of the most difficult in the world: we will lose approximately 800 thousand people of working age every year due to the demographic structure,” Oreshkin said.
In response to the challenge of low birth rates, the president talks about “rebooting” the country’s demographic policy. From January 1, two new monthly benefits appeared in Russia. At the birth of the first child and until he reaches one and a half years of age, families are provided with a monthly payment equal to the regional subsistence minimum per child (on average in 2018 it is 10.5 thousand rubles). From maternity capital funds (the program has been extended until the end of 2021), families can receive monthly payments upon the birth of a second child. Both payments are provided to families whose average per capita income does not exceed 1.5 times the regional subsistence level. In addition, for families with a second and third child, a special program for subsidizing mortgage rates (the state will cover the cost of servicing a mortgage in excess of 6% per annum).
Khasanova assessed the measures taken by the state as positive. “Maternity capital influenced a slight increase in the number of third and second births. It will increase the opportunity for young families to rise out of poverty. The benefit adopted for the first child will most likely not be such an effective way to increase the number of births, but it will affect the birth calendar: those who were planning to give birth in the next few years will hurry up,” she said.
The Russian labor market is losing its attractiveness for migrants; without them, it will not be possible to make up for the decline in the country’s working-age population, experts from the Center for Strategic Research (CSR) warn in the report “Migration Policy: Diagnosis, Challenges, Proposals,” published on January 26. The total decline in the working-age population by 2030 will range from 11 million to 13 million people, experts say. There are no reserves for the growth of internal migration and to attract foreign labor, according to experts, new migration policy measures are needed - work visas, lottery systems similar to the American Green Card, as well as contracts for the integration of migrants.
On this topic a couple of years ago. Now it’s time to update it and supplement it with the information that I have accumulated during this time. And so meet:
I warn you right away that I used for it only archival and official data from the Central Statistical Office of the USSR and Rosstat. There are no hypotheses from liberal demographers like Andreev, Darsky and Kharkova with their fantastic figures.
Started in 1913. Data from 50 European provinces of the Republic of Ingushetia were used, i.e. these are the best indicators. We have before us characteristic demography for a pre-industrial society with huge birth and death rates and a life expectancy of 31-33 years. While in Europe the typical life expectancy was around 45-50 years. You can read a little more about this.
The Bolsheviks' rise to power revolutionized everything, including demography. The entire 20s and 30s were characterized by a sharp and steady decrease in population mortality from the pre-revolutionary 35-30 ppm to 18-20, which, coupled with the high birth rate of the still peasant population, gave a maximum population increase of 25.7 ppm in 1928. It is also interesting to evaluate these achievements with pre-revolutionary demographic trends, which I showed with dotted arrows on the graph.
Stalin's forced reforms that began in the late 20s obviously affected demographic processes with a sharp and long-term decline in the birth rate in the late 20s and the first half of the 30s. The famine of 1933 gave a local jump in mortality with an excess mortality rate of 915 thousand people compared to the previous year. Throughout the USSR, about 2.5 million people died due to famine. For comparison, the liberal-Holodomor version gives a figure of 7 million people and a mortality rate of 70 ppm for the USSR. I discuss the discrepancies in numbers in detail here:
Next comes the Great Patriotic War. For 1941-1945 no data available. Direct losses from it are estimated from 16 to 27 million people. I once tried to show mortality rates for 1941-45 with all the losses. The picture turned out to be such that the highest mortality rate falls in 1943 and reaches a level of 69.5 ppm. Compare this figure with the fantasies of our famine liberals with their mortality rate of 70 ppm in 1933. Now ask yourself: how did it happen that in the most difficult year of the war, the overall mortality rate was less than the mortality rate of the much easier, peaceful year of 1933? In 1942, the country had everything: bombings, evacuation, battles, hunger, disease, the blockade of Leningrad. And the overall mortality rate turned out to be even less than in 1933, according to the famine survivors, when in the country, and not all of it, but only in some 3-4 regions, there was only famine and nothing more?
The post-war period is characterized by an increase in the birth rate and a sharp decrease in mortality. Improved living conditions and the widespread introduction of medical advances (antiseptics and antibiotics) are having an impact. There is a jump in mortality in 1947 from another crop failure, superimposed on the post-war devastation. This year's excess mortality rate is approximately 400 thousand people compared to the previous year.
The Khrushchev period was characterized by a continuation of the trends of the Stalin period until the beginning of the 3rd stage of the democratic transition with its sharp decline in the birth rate as a consequence of urbanization. If the Stalinist period can be called a period of accelerated industrialization, then the Khrushchev period is a period of accelerated urbanization.
Under Brezhnev, there was a gradual increase in mortality from 1965 to 1980. I discuss the reasons for this growth in detail here: In the 80s, this process stopped and the mortality trend from 1980 to 1990 shows a decrease. The birth rate is generally characterized by an increase with a surge from the measures of Gorbachev’s anti-alcohol campaign with a decrease in the late 80s. The people smelled the fried smell of perestroika, and the beginning of the second echo of the Great Patriotic War also had an impact.
The reign of liberals during the Yeltsin and Putin period was characterized by a rapid and catastrophic deterioration of all indicators for a long period since 1992. The official demographic decline for this period is 13 million 240 thousand people, and if we count from the State Statistics Committee of the USSR in 1991, then the decline is 19.4 million people for 2010. The loss consists of losses from a decrease in the birth rate and excess mortality. The latter is estimated by various calculation methods from 4 to 14 million people over 20 years. According to my calculations, it is equal to 8-10 million people. One of the calculation methods can be viewed.
I will dwell separately on the Putin period. Since 2006, there has been an overcoming of catastrophic trends in Russian demography. The birth rate is rising and the mortality rate is falling, which over the past couple of years has led to a slight natural population increase of 0.1 and 0.2 ppm. I consider in detail the reasons for the rise in the birth rate.
In 2015, population growth in Russia amounted to 33 thousand 700 people
In our country in January-December 2015, 1 million 944 thousand 100 babies were born. 1 million 911 400 people died. The population growth amounted to 32 thousand 700 people.
Compared to 2014, the birth rate in 2015 decreased by 3,200 people, and the death rate by 2,200. Thus, in 2014, 1 million 947 thousand 300 babies were born, 1 million 913 thousand 600 people died.
The number of registered marriages (1 million 161 thousand) in 2015 was almost 2 times higher than the number of divorces (611 thousand 600). In 2014, people got married and divorced more often than in 2015 - the number of marriages amounted to 1 million 226 thousand, the number of divorces - 693 thousand 700.
General results of the vital statistics of the Russian Federation in 2015
For the fourth year now, Russians have been overturning demographers' forecasts.
After all, after 2011, our country was predicted to have a new failure, another crossbar of the “Russian cross”.
Since 2011, there are fewer and fewer potential mothers in Russia, because girls born during the demographic hole of the nineties are reaching adulthood, and the much more populous generations of the early seventies are dropping out of the process.
However, neither the economic crisis nor the reduction in the number of young women led to a decrease in the Russian birth rate. The statistical results of 2015 indicate that natural population growth continues in the Russian Federation.
In the table it looks like this:
Natural population growth of the Russian Federation (thousands of people)
If we compare with forecasts, everything is happening exactly the opposite.
Calculations based on the number of maternal generations suggested that from 2010 to 2015, the number of little Russians born should have decreased by 150-200 thousand, and the natural decline should have reached 400 thousand people per year.
But in fact, the birth rate is increasing and for the third year in a row it has steadily, although not by much, exceeded the death rate.
An increase in the birth rate against the background of a decrease in the number of mothers means only one thing: family size is growing in Russia. There are more and more parents with two and three children, and fewer with one child.
Indeed, the total fertility rate (TFR), which shows the average number of descendants a woman will leave if the frequency of births in the country remains at the current level, changed in the 21st century as follows:
The level achieved today is still lower than that which ensures simple replacement of generations, but higher than the level of any country in continental Europe, except France.
True, in France, the increase in the birth rate in recent years has been achieved mainly by migrants. In Russia, on the contrary, the positive trend of the last decade is entirely due to Russians.
The birth rate of the peoples of the North Caucasus and southern Siberia, previously characterized by large families, is now declining, gradually approaching the Russian average level. Using the figures obtained in 2015 as an example, it looks like this:
In a group of ten national regions with traditionally high birth rates (Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Ossetia, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia, Kalmykia, Bashkiria, Yakutia, Tuva), 8,499 fewer people were born last year than in 2014.
In the group of sixty subjects of the Federation without national status, where the absolute majority of the population is Russian, 7,525 more people were born.
The trend seems even more contrasting if we consider that the number of potential mothers in Russian regions is decreasing due to the failure of the nineties, and in most national republics, where such a deep failure was not observed in the nineties, the maternal cohort continues to grow. That is, in the Caucasus there are more women of parental age and fewer babies, but in central Russia the opposite is true.
This suggests that the difference in family size between Russians and some national minorities, which developed in the second half of the twentieth century, is now shrinking even faster than can be judged by the absolute figures given above.
Finally, here are the ten regions where the birth rate grew at the highest rates in 2015:
- Sevastopol + 12.1%
- Kaluga region + 7.8%
- Nenets Autonomous Okrug + 6.3%
- St. Petersburg + 5.2%
- Moscow region + 5.2%
- Tula region + 4.0%
- Moscow + 3.5%
- Bryansk region + 3.0%
- Vladimir region + 3.0%
- Nizhny Novgorod region + 2.5%
It is symbolic that this rating is crowned by the hero city of Sevastopol, which has returned to its homeland. No less significant is that the leaders of the demographic revival are dominated by the regions of central and northwestern Russia, which recently experienced the most severe crisis.
Russia is one of the largest countries in the world in terms of population. What is the population in Russia today? And how has it changed over the years? You will learn about this from our article.
Population of Russia
The concept itself implies the number of residents permanently residing on its territory. The population of Russia is (as of January 2015) about 146 million 267 thousand inhabitants. This is the number of permanent population of the Russian Federation.
As we can see, the population of the Russian Federation was growing slowly until 1996. But after 1996, its noticeable decline began, which in the science of demography is called the process of depopulation. The decline in Russia's population continued until 2010. Scientists attribute population growth over the past 5 years not so much to an improvement in the birth-to-mortality ratio as to an increase in the influx of migrants from abroad.
Current demographic situation in the country
UN experts have described the current demographic situation in Russia as a demographic crisis. Thus, in our country there is an extremely high mortality rate. The causes of most of the deaths of Russians (almost 80%) are cardiovascular and cancer diseases.
Fertility is of great importance for every country. If this indicator is low in a state, then a threat is created to the territorial integrity of the country. High and low birth rates improve and guarantee the preservation of the nation. Fertility statistics allow you to track the necessary indicators.
Fertility is also an indicator of a country's level. In poor countries, where people earn a low salary, usually a high level, few children are born. In developed countries, where living conditions are good, the population is not afraid to give birth to several babies.
Population dynamics in the Russian Federation
The table shows birth rate statistics in Russia by year. It can be used to judge how natural population growth has changed:
| Year | Number of children born | Total population |
| 1927 | 4 688 000 | 94 596 000 |
| 1939 | 4 329 000 | 108 785 000 |
| 1950 | 2 859 000 | 102 833 000 |
| 1960 | 2 782 353 | 119 906 000 |
| 1970 | 1 903 713 | 130 252 000 |
| 1980 | 2 202 779 | 138 483 00 |
| 1990 | 1 988 858 | 148 273 746 |
| 2000 | 1 266 800 | 146 303 611 |
| 2010 | 1 788 948 | 142 865 433 |
| 2015 | 1 940 579 | 146 544 710 |
| 2016 | 1 888 729 | 146 804 372 |
To find out which gender of children are born more, there are statistics on the birth rate of boys and girls. Let's look at the indicators for the city of Novopolotsk. In 2014, about five hundred female children and almost six hundred male children were born. 2015 was marked by the birth of 595 boys and 537 girls. In other settlements the situation is approximately the same.
Girls Fertility Statistics and boys means that more male babies are being born.
- Chechen Republic.
- Ingushetia.
- Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug.
The worst indicators are:
- Tyumen region
- Pskov region
- Tula region
The total number continues to decrease, despite the fact that mortality did not exceed the birth statistics in Russia in 2016. At the same time, the state has reached a higher level. Fertility statistics for 10 years show that Russia ranked 63rd in the world (data for 2016) in terms of natural population growth. The table shows the main reasons why Russians died (from January to August 2016):
| Number of people (in thousands) | |
| 716,7 | |
| 198,2 | |
| 13,5 | |
| 5,7 | |
| 16,3 | |
| 7,2 | |
| Infections | 21,8 |
Fertility statistics for 2016 show that the population density in the Russian Federation is 8.6 people per 1 km². This is one of the lowest rates in the world. Huge areas are simply empty. Villages and small towns have died out over the past 20 years, and some areas have never been inhabited.
The situation in the world at the beginning of 2017
According to statistics for the first quarter of 2017, the world birth rate increased by almost 50 million people. Every day several hundred thousand babies are born in the world. E this fact can be checked using the earth's population counter in mode.
Fertility and mortality rates for 2017 in Russia
Russia has always been the largest territorial state in the world. However, the population here is inexorably declining. The country is experiencing a demographic crisis. According to fertility statistics in Russia, at the beginning of 2017, fewer children were born compared to the previous year.
Population growth in Belarus and Ukraine
Fertility statistics by year in Ukraine:
| Year | Number of children born | Total population |
| 2000 | no data | 48 663 600 |
| 2005 | 426 100 | 47 100 462 |
| 2010 | 497 700 | 45 782 592 |
| 2015 | 411 800 | 42 759 300 |
Below is a diagram with fertility statistics in Ukraine, as well as mortality by year (over the last 25 years). It clearly shows in which years the country's population grew and in which it decreased.
Fertility statistics in Belarus by year:
| Year | Number of children born | Total population |
| 2000 | 93 691 | 9 988 000 |
| 2005 | 90 508 | 9 664 000 |
| 2010 | 108 050 | 9 491 000 |
| 2015 | 119 509 | 9 481 000 |
Boy Birth Statistics in the Republic of Belarus is given in numbers in the graph below. Slightly more male babies are born than female babies. But recently the number of boys born has decreased slightly. As for the size of the male and female population, judging by the table, there are more men than women in Belarus.
In recent years, the population in the Russian Federation and Ukraine has decreased, while in Belarus it has increased; birth and death statistics in Russia confirm this fact.