II. Economic instability.
The market is not always stable. Periods of instability are fraught with inflation, unemployment, and other severe social consequences. At the same time, instability may be to the advantage of some companies. The market itself, of course, is gradually stabilizing, but this may take quite a long time. The state cannot completely eliminate market fluctuations, but it is able to smooth them out and reduce social tension.
In economic development, the state is called upon to correct those shortcomings that are inherent in the market mechanism.
III. Lack of market interest in solving social and global problems.
The market will not deal with social problems, since it does not bring any benefit. Only the state can pay benefits, pensions, etc. through taxes.
The market does not contribute to the conservation of non-renewable resources, environmental protection, and cannot regulate the use of resources that belong to all of humanity (the fish resources of the ocean). The market has always been focused on satisfying the needs of those who have money.
There have always been types of production that are “rejected” by the market mechanism. First of all, this is production with a long payback period for capital, without which society cannot do, and the results of which cannot be measured in monetary form: fundamental science, maintaining the country's defense capability, maintaining law and order, maintaining employment at the required level, maintaining the disabled, organizing education, healthcare , creation and maintenance of the normal functioning of the general economic structure (monetary circulation, customs control, etc.).
Income and wealth inequality generated by the market mechanism everywhere and hourly. This mechanism itself is not at all aimed at overcoming too large differences in the well-being of citizens.
The situation can only be changed by regulating income and wealth. Only the state can solve such a complex problem. After all, this requires the creation of powerful systems of income redistribution and the implementation of other forms of social policy throughout the country.
Thus, in a mixed economic system, the state takes on several tasks (Fig. 1):
1) eliminating the consequences caused by weaknesses (imperfections) of the market;
2) mitigation of income and wealth inequality through their partial redistribution.
In addition, the need for state regulation of the economy is determined by:
Ensuring the integrity of the territorial economic space;
The presence of natural monopolies;
Limitations of certain resources;
Creation and maintenance of developed infrastructure, especially in Russian conditions;
Figure 1. Economic functions of the state
Ensuring the reliability of information;
Ensuring a balance of economic interests of business entities;
§ legal support for the functioning of the market mechanism. Legal protection of producers and consumers is the most important function of the state.
First of all, property rights must be ensured. An owner who is not confident in the inviolability of his property will be afraid of its alienation and will not be able to use his full creative and material potential. Much attention is usually paid to antitrust regulation. The ability of individual firms to dictate their prices on the market and impose other terms of transactions is calculated, and measures to combat these phenomena are determined.
In the case of natural monopolies, the state may resort to establishing/fixing prices for the goods of such a monopolist.
The state also seeks to prevent unfair methods of competition, the so-called destructive or destructive competition. For example, a ban may be introduced on dumping, that is, the sale of goods at bargain prices, usually with the aim of ousting rivals from the market. After competitors leave the market, the dumping firm increases its market share and raises prices to obtain excess profits.
Almost all countries in the world have laws protecting exclusive rights (copyright, invention), which can also be classified as measures to ensure fair competition. Income from works and inventions should be received by their creators. Copyright infringement is still rampant in Russia.
Laws devoted to the protection of consumer rights are also very important, since their interests and the interests of entrepreneurs do not always coincide. The issue of consumer protection is also relevant in Russia.
The quality of many products, as well as the level of service, is not always at a high level;
§ the fact that not all relationships between people are within the market. Thus, the exploration of deep space and the world's oceans requires very large costs, but they are outside the market and are regulated by states.
State regulation of the economy is a system of legislative, executive and supervisory measures carried out by authorized government agencies in order to adapt the existing socio-economic system to changing economic conditions.
In other words state regulation of the economy is a purposeful coordinating process of government management influence on individual segments of domestic and foreign markets through micro- and macroeconomic regulators in order to achieve economic growth and stability of the economic system.
TO objects of regulation include the national and international economy, individual sectors, industries and regions where problems arise that cannot be resolved through market regulators.
Subjects of regulation acted by central (federal), regional and municipal authorities.
Federal Agency for Education of the Russian Federation
State educational institution of higher education vocational education
"STATE UNIVERSITY OF MANAGEMENT"
Institute for Training of Scientific, Pedagogical and Scientific Personnel
Department of Public Administration and Political Technologies
In the discipline "Methodology of research of socio-economic and political processes"
On the topic: “Social instability, its factors and stages of development”
Specialty: 00.08.05 - “Economics and management of the national economy”
Completed:
Karatkevich A.G.
Introduction
1. The concept of stability and instability. The problem of social security. An example of social instability
2. Social stability and instability as a criterion for indicators of the dynamics of social development. The concept of social crisis.
Factors and stages of development of instability
2. The concept of social catastrophe. Social instability in Russia
Conclusion
List of used literature
Introduction
Russia's ability to find answers to the challenges of the time directly depends on the state of Russian society. History shows that on this path those nations succeed that combine the following qualities: adherence to traditions along with receptivity to the new; cohesion simultaneously with the ability for everyone to act independently; breadth of views while firmly adhering to traditional moral standards. Today, to the usual tasks of economic and social creation, the need has been added to defend our vital interests with arms in hand.
The development of modern Russian society is going through an inevitable crisis stage. It is characterized by such a state of the social system when all its connections and processes are determined by the area of critical values. This creates enormous difficulties for public management practice, affects the quality of life and social condition of all segments of the population, and requires a deep and accurate theoretical understanding of the current situation in order to develop effective tactical and strategic solutions.
Modern sociological knowledge simultaneously solves a number of problems. One of them is the search and testing of new expressive means that are adequate to the situation. This is facilitated by the emergence of new social themes in the social process, as well as the aggravation of contradictions caused by global transformation, which requires appropriate scientific understanding. We are talking about a systemic crisis that has affected all areas of social relations. The crisis state of society is the most universal characteristic of society as an integral system. Thus, the problems of the crisis require a more in-depth, systemic understanding, which is connected not only with the current situation, but also with the previous development of Russian society.
Real social changes, which are sustainable and irreversible, are associated in Russia primarily with economic reforms. And they develop in a complex and contradictory way. Socio-economic tensions contribute to the deepening of social and ethnic conflicts. Political instability and the lack of conceptual strategies in the field of development of external relations, national interests, regional policy of Russia, the lack of verified socio-economic programs lead to uncertainty in the sphere of ensuring the security of Russian society.
In this work, I intend to consider the particularly pressing problem of social instability in Russia, highlight several key terms, which are social security, as well as the dynamics of social development, and how it generally affects instability in the social sphere of the Russian Federation.
The problem of stability now has not only scientific and theoretical significance. The stabilization of economic, political, social life, the consolidation of modern Russian society is what Russians have been waiting for and hoping for for several years now. In such a situation, even ideas arise that the stability of society is identical to the immutability of social orders, systems and structures, that any changes only lead to a deterioration in people’s well-being.
Stability and instability of a social system are two extreme opposite points on the scale of its possible states.
Instability is a deformation of the structure, functions or any processes of social systems (including societal ones), which deform these systems and threaten their integrity. It can manifest itself both at the level of individual social systems (instability of the economy, government power, etc.), their interaction with each other, and at the level of the entire society.
The relevance of this study is due to the fact that the development of modern Russian society is going through an inevitable crisis stage. It is characterized by such a state of the social system when all its connections and processes are determined by the area of critical values. This creates enormous difficulties for public management practice, affects the quality of life and social condition of all segments of the population, and requires a deep and accurate theoretical understanding of the current situation in order to develop effective tactical and strategic solutions.
The purpose of the work is to consider the basic ideas about the unstable state of the social system, to reveal the positive and negative aspects of such a state.
1. The concept of stability and instability. The problem of social security. An example of social instability
In real social life there is practically no absolute stability. In any society, there are always imbalances within and between social systems, manifestations of real or potential instability. Instability is understood as such deformations of the structure, functions or any processes of social systems (including societal ones) that deform these systems and threaten their integrity. Such instability can occur at the level of individual social systems (instability of the economy, state power, etc.), their interaction with each other, and finally, at the level of the entire society.
However, the concept of instability also has a broader fundamental scientific and philosophical meaning. According to modern ideas, which are becoming increasingly widespread among scientists of various scientific profiles, instability in the sense of instability is a fundamental characteristic of the entire universe. Such ideas can also be attributed to society. At the same time, instability should be understood not as social chaos, but as incompleteness, incompleteness at any given moment of social evolution, the possibility and necessity of social changes at one point or another of social existence, even the unpredictability of these changes, their specific direction, time and place of occurrence.
In real social life, instability, as a rule, is a sign of some unresolved problems, dysfunctions and deformations. Factors of instability, like factors of stability, can be external to the social system and internal. External factors, in turn, can be divided into social (anthropogenic) and natural. The impact of external social factors can significantly deform and even destroy the social system. Thus, during the period of aggressive colonialist wars, many societies in Africa, Asia, America, Australia were destroyed, entire peoples, often with a high and unique culture, were destroyed. Natural disasters can also significantly disrupt the stability of social (societal) systems. Under their influence, some social institutions, for example, the economy and the healthcare system, are often deformed or completely destroyed. Earthquakes, floods, typhoons, tsunamis, etc. cause enormous damage to the national economy, various life support systems of people, and their lives.
Internal social factors of instability of social systems are also very diverse. In general, we can say that the instability of a system is the destruction or at least a violation of its integrity, deformation of the structure and functions. This situation can be illustrated in more detail using the example of social institutions. The instability of the activities of social institutions is manifested primarily in a significant imbalance between structural components (for example, an imbalance of sectors of the national economy in the economy), in functional disorder up to the failure to perform necessary social functions, and deformation in the relationships between various social institutions.
From a sociological point of view, social stability is not synonymous with immutability and immobility of social systems and relationships. In society, such immobility is, as a rule, not a sign of stability, but a sign of stagnation, which sooner or later leads to instability, social tension, and ultimately to instability. In the former USSR, for example, for a long time, especially in the 1960s and 1970s, the government tried to keep retail prices for many goods and services stable, that is, fixed. However, in the end, this led to the fact that prices were completely inconsistent with the costs of labor and raw materials for the production of these goods, and the costs of labor for the provision of services. In turn, this situation has led to the fact that it has become economically unprofitable to produce goods and provide services. As a result, production began to fall, scientific and technological progress slowed down, and areas of stagnation began to expand. So the immutability of any systems does not at all mean their stability.
In a sociological sense, social stability is such stability of social structures, processes and relationships that, despite all their changes, preserves their qualitative certainty and integrity as such.
It consists of three levels:
1) internal stability of social systems (institutions, organizations, communities, etc.);
2) the stability of their relationships and their interactions with each other;
3) stability of the entire society, which can be designated as societal stability.
This latter will already include political, economic, ideological, cultural, etc. stability at the level of the entire society. A stable society is a society that develops and at the same time maintains its stability, a society in which a mechanism of change has been established that preserves its stability, excluding such a struggle of social forces that leads to the weakening of the very foundations of society. Accordingly, instability is also caused by society and has the ability to persist over a long period, and also have disastrous consequences for all layers and structures of society. To avoid situations of various instability, I will introduce the term “social security” and talk a little more about this topic.
Political instability and the lack of conceptual strategies in the field of development of external relations, national interests, regional policy of Russia, the lack of verified socio-economic programs lead to uncertainty in the sphere of ensuring the security of Russian society.
Safety is a social norm of modern society. The emergence of the topic of “security” in the horizons of the sociology of instability is caused by a number of circumstances. And among them, it is necessary, first of all, to highlight the close connection and interdependence of the problems of ensuring stable development, social order of society and maintaining the security of Russia. Next, we will expand a little on the topic of social security as a cell in stable coexistence in our country, and the factors that influence it.
Social security is the protection of the vital interests of the individual, family and society from internal and external threats. Its objects are all the main elements of the social system for ensuring the quality and standard of living of the people, which are regulated by national and social policy. And in this regard, social security is an integral part of national security. As we all remember, until recently there was no social development strategy in social policy. The consequence of this was low life expectancy, high levels of poverty, unjustifiably high social differentiation of the population, regional disparities in living standards, a decline in the quality of education and healthcare, as well as the general level of spirituality and culture in our society. And finally, the demographic problem emerged in full force.
As is known, priority national projects appeared in 2005, which marked the beginning of a strategic turn in social policy and served as the basis for the formation of a social strategy in Russia. The importance of these projects is that they were focused on the person, on the need to prioritize the problems of his education, his health, his well-being.
To develop principles for achieving long-term goals of social development, which were proclaimed at the famous meeting of the State Council by Vladimir Putin, the tasks of building socio-economic policy as a policy for managing the future were identified. And in this regard, it is necessary that the concept of socio-economic development of our country become a strategy for safe and sustainable social development aimed at improving social relations, ensuring equal opportunities and social consolidation.
This requires serious financial resources and solving the rather complex task of implementing two interrelated, but at the same time multi-vector directions - the demand for equality and the demand for efficiency. This, in turn, requires the simultaneous accumulation of social mobility and social justice within a market economy, corresponding to the level and pace of development of society.
In this regard, social security is a key guarantee of the safety and effectiveness of all types of investments in human capital. To ensure it, it is necessary to accept and fulfill high social obligations of the state within the framework of a comprehensive system of social standards.
The new social policy requires the constant creation and expansion of an infrastructure for society and for every citizen of new opportunities for self-realization, self-development of citizens' own investments in their future and the future of their family. Everyone needs to realize this - the authorities, society, and every citizen. Although today there is and is accumulating an obvious shortage of such opportunities, a shortage of professional tools: saving, insuring, accumulating and investing.
The need to solve strategic problems of social development requires calculated, effective and discussed with society new principles of financing the social sphere, a clear understanding of the prospects for its individual areas, restructuring and increased government responsibility.
For this purpose, as we know, the Ministry of Economic Development developed a draft Concept of socio-economic development until 2020, which does not sufficiently focus on overcoming the differentiation of Russian society in terms of quality and standard of living, and does not provide for reasonable mechanisms for reducing property, territorial, information and other gaps between segments of the population, expanding the rights and freedoms of those in need. In the revised version of the concept, income policy, housing policy, standards for classifying the middle class and the possibility of achieving its share of 50-60% in the total population of the country are not sufficiently justified.
I believe that we must proceed from a completely different paradigm: from the recognition of equal importance for society of social and economic policies. This is a fundamental provision that is present in the social systems of those civilized countries where the problems of social security for citizens have been largely resolved and where social standards have been adopted.
Human creativity is too complex a phenomenon to be reduced only to social and cultural conditions. But it is impossible to ignore the influence of these conditions on creativity, since they are of great importance, representing the environment under the influence of which any human activity is located.
2. Social stability and instability as a criterion for indicators of the dynamics of social development. The concept of social crisis. Factors and stages of development of instability
Do both stability (as well as crisis and growth) and security act as certain states of the social organism, indicators of the dynamics of its development?
The concept of “state” here serves as a general theoretical basis for establishing the internal relationship between the phenomena of stability and security as phenomena that characterize the dynamics of life processes, social and economic development. N.A. draws attention to this feature of the state of stability and, accordingly, instability. Kosolapov, who defines it as follows:
this is not the status quo, but the dynamics of all and every life processes, which no one can stop, and dynamics that are not distorted by the extremity of external or internal conditions of life, especially by extremity artificially created or caused;
predictability of the most significant, fundamental parameters and states of the system, directions and trends of its evolution and development;
the ability to react rationally and effectively, both politically and practically, to all the changes that life gives rise to, and to do this in a timely manner... In a psychological sense, stability is when a person is able to manage time, and not time - a person.”
Accordingly, instability, which, according to N.A. Kosolapov, also needs to be considered as a “universal form of manifestation of development,” but development that is poorly controlled, fraught with conflicts and dangers.
“People and political structures perceive the situation as unstable, and therefore potentially threatening, dangerous in cases where they do not know and/or do not understand what exactly is happening; cannot interpret what is happening in their usual concepts and categories; do not have sufficient time and/or opportunity to obtain and interpret the necessary information; do not control or have insufficient influence on what is happening.”
So, stability and instability can be considered as categories that denote different degrees of mastery of vital practical situations, social reality, different levels of security or danger (depending on which aspect is chosen as the initial one). But they also act as boundaries that fix the development of social reality as a flow of changes that has a nonlinear nature. Instability in this case expresses not only the insufficient ability to understand or control changes in social reality, but also the objective possibility of the emergence of “strongly non-equilibrium situations”, bifurcations (bifurcation translated from Latin means “forks, bifurcation in two” and captures the peculiarities of the behavior of complex systems experiencing strong external and internal stresses).
In particular, the instability of a social system can be caused, as E. Laszlo shows, by completely rationally explainable reasons - bifurcations. “The instabilities themselves can be of various origins. They may arise from insufficient assimilation or poor application of innovations.
The impetus for their occurrence can be both external factors, such as the arms race, and internal factors, such as political conflicts.
Instabilities can be caused by the collapse of the local economic and social order under the influence of increasingly frequent crises.
Regardless of their origin, instabilities are likely to spread to all sectors and segments of society and thereby open the door to rapid and profound change.”1
Sociology of instability is a sociological theory that highlights the crisis development of society and unstable states of social reality as the object of its research. At the same time, the main interests of these studies are focused on identifying sociocultural mechanisms that determine the behavior of both individual social actors and the social system in conditions of unstable, crisis development, as well as studying changes in the relationships between social norms and pathologies - deviations from the normal in situations of risk and uncertainty.
Classical sociology has accumulated a lot of experience in analyzing the phenomena of disintegration of social systems, crisis situations and conflicts (for example, wars and national conflicts), as well as anomie (here we should recall the works of A. Boscov, E. Giddens, R. Dahrendorf, E. Durkheim, L. Koser, L. Kriesberg, T. Kuhn, R. Merton, P. Sorokin, G. Spencer, G. Howmans, F. Borodkin, A. Zdravomyslov, A. Zaitsev, etc.).
It is another matter that in-depth system analysis, reflecting the main essential characteristics of crisis, unstable forms of social development, is either absent, which is typical for the works of the above-mentioned authors describing instability, or is rejected as not having stood the test of historical practice, which, in fact, is what happened with Marxist sociology. Namely, within the framework of this last doctrine, the problems of socio-economic and political crisis, social revolutions as radical changes in society, class struggle and wars occupied a central place.
As already mentioned, instability in developing societies almost always exists in one form or another. Instability deepens and expands if ruling groups do not take measures to control them or if these measures are insufficient and inadequate. In this case, instability not only increases, but develops into a crisis situation, a crisis.
Three stages can be identified in this process. The first is the deformation of individual structures, individual functions or processes within the social system, as well as individual violations of intersystem connections. At the level of the entire society as a societal system, these are mainly deformations of individual social institutions, as already mentioned.
The second is the general instability of the social system as such, when its integrity is significantly violated. This is the stage of a general crisis of a social system or, if we are talking about a societal system, a systemic crisis of the entire society. At this stage, restoration and revival of the system in its former quality is still possible, although this requires much greater effort than at the previous stage.
When studying such situations, the approach proposed by scientists from the Institute of Socio-Political Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences is of fundamental importance, which consists in determining the extremely critical, threshold indicators of a systemic crisis of society, meaning the danger of the occurrence of irreversible processes of decay. These indicators are grouped into seven most important spheres of life of a particular society: economic relations, social sphere, demographic situation, environmental situation, deviant behavior, political relations, defense capability. Thus, the social sphere contains four indicators:
1) the ratio of the incomes of the richest 10% and the poorest 10% of citizens. The extremely critical value in world practice is expressed by the number 10: 1;
2) proportion of the population living below the poverty line. The maximum critical value in world practice is 10%;
3) ratio of minimum and average wages. The extremely critical value in world practice is 1: 3;
4) unemployment rate. The maximum critical global value is 8-10%. In the second half of the 1990s. many real indicators of the development of Russian society went beyond the extremely critical global indicators, which had a very serious impact on the stability of Russian society as a whole. For example, the income ratio between the richest 10% and the poorest 10% in 1996 was 15:1.
Finally, the third stage of instability is a catastrophe, i.e. the destruction of a given social system as such, the end of its existence. A return to the previous state is no longer possible, and destructive anti-systemic social changes are becoming irreversible.
History knows only two ways out of such social catastrophes: 1) collapse, death of a given social system (society), civilization and culture (the death of the ancient Egyptian, Greco-Roman, Byzantine and other civilizations); 2) transition to a fundamentally new social quality, the formation of a qualitatively new social system (transformation of feudal or semi-feudal social systems and institutions in Japan, Malaysia and other countries into capitalist ones). The latter is possible only under certain objective and subjective conditions, the political will of the ruling groups, and the enormous efforts of significant masses of people.
3. The concept of social catastrophe. Social instability in Russia
The term “catastrophe” is widely used nowadays to characterize various types of historical situations (wars, revolutions, economic crises).
Modern explanatory dictionaries of the Russian language give the following definitions to the concept of “catastrophe”.
“A disaster is an event with tragic consequences.”
“A catastrophe is a sudden disaster, an event entailing serious consequences.”
A different definition is given by E.M. Babosov, who characterizes a catastrophe as “a sharp, abrupt transformation of a system as a result of an excessive increase in internal and external tension from a stable position to an unstable one, threatening the destruction of its most important components or a transition to another qualitative state.”
Accordingly, the concept of “social catastrophe” refers to similar processes in society that lead to large human, material and (or) cultural losses.
The socio-political revolution is a period and a series of multiple catastrophes. In the last decade of the twentieth century. in Russia, peaks of decline in several development cycles coincided (or rather merged and caused a resonance effect, mutually stimulated each other) in several development cycles: technological, economic, national relations, elite circulation. As a result, multiple disasters occurred. The main ones in the “package” of Russian revolutionary disasters were:
1. socio-economic (record in depth and duration for peacetime in the world history of the twentieth century, economic crisis and “collapse” in key industries).
2. financial (multiple budget cuts, avalanche-like growth of external debt, hyperinflation during the revolutionary period, capital export over a number of years, comparable to the federal budget).
3. socio-technological (accelerating decline in the level of investment, retirement of fixed assets and an increase in the accident rate).
4. social (in the narrow sense of the word). Its components in post-Soviet Russia were: falling living standards, depreciation of honest labor, growing social inequality, spreading poverty, mass child homelessness, mass unemployment).
5. Social and moral. The destruction of the moral health of society was expressed in its criminalization, an epidemic of diseases caused by antisocial behavior, and the replacement of social and patriotic values with antisocial and antipatriotic ones.
6. Socio-demographic
7. geopolitical (collapse of a superpower, unipolar world, cross-threats)
Social instability caused by the uneven distribution of public goods can become a threat to the political stability of society
What is happening in modern Russia? We have to admit that the country's social health has been seriously undermined. There are many poor people in Russia, and at the same time one can observe a sharp polarization of incomes, which cannot be balanced even by a significant increase in the general well-being of citizens. In other words, rich people continue to get richer, while the number of poor people is declining very slowly. The situation is aggravated by the fact that the established level of poverty is the subsistence minimum, which today amounts to just over 4 thousand rubles. per capita - seems artificially low compared to Western levels. 16.3% of Russians are officially below the poverty line. If Western standards are applied to Russia, this figure will increase significantly. Approximately the same number - 16% - consider themselves to be middle class. It is obvious that a real, large middle class does not exist in Russia, either according to objective economic indicators or in the subjective perception of citizens. The existing middle class is very eclectic: due to the fact that the process of differentiation of society by level of education and professional affiliation is far from complete, the main criterion for belonging to the Russian middle class is the level of income, in contrast to the United States, where belonging to the middle class reflects the level of education received person.
Growing income differentiation poses a serious danger for Russia. Social instability caused by the uneven distribution of public goods can become a threat to the political stability of society. At the same time, the sociological qualification of Russian society, be it civil or totalitarian, cannot be associated primarily with political aspects and parameters, which is typical for societies of totalitarian and civil types. A connection with economic, production and labor factors is necessary. The type of social organization of modern Russian society must be deduced first of all from these factors, and circumstances derived from the economy must be threaded onto them. The basis of the sociological qualification of the type of social structure, social order objectively includes phenomena related to the nature of predominantly labor relations.
Thus, in modern sociological literature, with regard to the analysis of society as an integral system, as a social organization of a certain level, the following social problems and subjects remain poorly studied:
cross-cutting sociological parameters that make it possible to track and analyze Russian society in the historical period within which issues of social continuity are being resolved, and the conditions and trends of modern global transformation are being considered;
social, rather than state-political, aspects of the transition from a Soviet social organization or an organization of a totalitarian type to an organization of a democratic, post-Soviet type;
elements, mechanisms and principles of manifestation of emergency, tension in the social system, allowing it to be qualified as a system of a changed, mobilization social order;
the role of socio-economic, production and labor factors in the organization and functioning of Russian society as an integral system and the place of organizational and economic mechanisms c. reproduction of the social system; the role of social violence and restriction of freedom in the organizational, economic and political mechanisms of the functioning of Russian society.
Degree of development of the problem
At the same time, the main attention of researchers of problems of Russian society is concentrated around the problems of its subject-community and institutional transformation. The problem of society as an integral system either fits into already established ideological and methodological stereotypes, or is considered at the level and in the qualities of social, economic and political space. As such, the problem of macrosocial organization of society is not specifically analyzed. The point is not only that it dissolves in other problems, but that it does not have its own quality. Often, the methodological guidelines for analyzing society as a system are directly identified with theoretical knowledge about the peculiarities of the functioning and nature of society.
Modern Russian society is experiencing a crisis stage of its development, which is characterized by such a state of the social system when all its connections and processes are determined by the area of critical values, that is, it is unstable. This situation is associated with the socio-economic transformations being carried out in the country. At the initial stage, the reforms were perceived positively by the population of the country, but subsequently, when instead of reformation there was a transformation of the social system, and fundamental changes in the economy entailed a weakening of the material basis of the state and, as a consequence, a sharp drop in the standard of living of a significant part of the country's population, the reforms were no longer used support. As a result of the ongoing transformation in Russia, all the contradictions that were characteristic of the Soviet system have worsened: an inefficient economy, corruption, the actual non-participation of the bulk of the population in governing the country, non-observance of human and civil rights and freedoms. In addition, as a result of the reforms, the following contradictions were added to the listed contradictions: a decline in the standard of living of the main part of the country's population, social stratification of society, a demographic crisis, and the criminalization of consciousness. Political instability and the lack of conceptual strategies in the field of development of external relations, national interests, regional policy of Russia, the lack of verified socio-economic programs lead to uncertainty in the sphere of ensuring the security of Russian society.
Conclusion
The absence of mass ideology in our society has led to the formation of a literally “ideological vacuum” in recent years, when people have consistently become disillusioned with the most diverse ideals of the social system: communist... democratic... liberal... All the ideological foundations on which much of the world is based the stability of society collapsed. Consequently, the general causes of system instability include excessive changes in the structure and physical parameters of the system, deviations from the norm in the nature and strength of internal connections, and low efficiency of some elements. The characteristic features of an unstable system are uneven development, instability, low adaptability to change, and a low level of realization of the potential of the majority. Such a system is short-lived.
The most unstable are transitional social systems that are undergoing transformation in connection with the implementation of reforms in political and socio-economic life, carried out according to a complex bifurcation scenario.
The instability of a social system may be the result of a lack of balance in its structure, low efficiency of some of its elements, which are responsible for preventing and eliminating the consequences of impacts. An example is the low-powered armed forces of Iraq, which were unable to repel external aggression, which led the country to the actual loss of sovereignty, and ultimately to the destruction of the entire system. Weak intrasystem relationships can also lead to a similar result. Thus, the negative attitude of the majority of the population towards representatives of law enforcement agencies does not contribute to the effective solution of the tasks facing them, which, coupled with divergent value systems, weakens the potential of society, which is typical for today's Russia.
In addition, instability is a consequence of the low realization of human potential, which is expressed in the exclusion of a significant part of the population from the process of stabilizing the system. The reason for this is the imperfection of the organization of the system - the discrepancy between the standing and emerging tasks of the structure and social technologies, the dynamism of development. On the one hand, the social system is ineffective due to the fact that the creative potential of people remains unclaimed and this leads to the separation of the individual from the system, and on the other hand, the lack of satisfaction of the individual’s needs also leads to distance from the system and plus the degradation of the individual himself. As a result, the total creative potential of the social system decreases, which affects the overall stability in the country.
List of used literature
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3. Vertakova Yu.V. Study of socio-economic and political processes: a textbook for university students. - M.: KnoRus, 2009. - 335.
4. Lavrinenko V.N. Research of socio-economic and political processes: textbook. manual for university students / V.N. Lavrinenko, L.M. Putilova. - M.: University. textbook : VZFEI, 2007. - 182 p.
5. Roy O.M. Research of socio-economic and political processes: Textbook. - M. [etc.]: Peter, 2004.
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The most important condition for the implementation of pressing economic problems is the transition to a model of sustainable development with a certain level of state regulation of economic processes, guaranteeing the normal functioning of a multi-structured economy and providing a balanced solution to socio-economic problems.
The construction of any science begins with the formation of its concept (system of axioms) with the subsequent development of the corresponding methodology (academic discipline) and methods for solving problems inherent in this science. Any problem requiring theoretical understanding and urgent practical solution in one or another area of human activity requires, for its solution, the formulation of systemic knowledge about the phenomenon under study and the development of the necessary scientific methodological and methodological tools.
An economic system is a set of interconnected and ordered elements of the economy. Without the systemic nature of the economy, economic relations and institutions could not be reproduced (constantly renewed), economic patterns could not exist, a theoretical understanding of economic phenomena and processes could not have developed, and there could be no coordinated effective economic policy. Real practice constantly confirms the systemic nature of the economy. Objectively existing economic systems are scientifically reflected in theoretical (scientific) economic systems.
If the economy is considered as a systemic entity, then it appears as an economic system, but such a technique does not exempt it from special analysis.26
According to V.V. Leontiev, the economy of each country is a large system in which there are many different types of activities, and each link, component of the system can only exist
because he receives something from others, i.e. is in mutual
communication and interdependence on other links.
In Marxist economics, other approaches to revealing the essence of the economic system have developed, which reflects the class and ideological nature of understanding the structure of society. Marxism understands the economic system as a complex structure of interacting elements: economic phenomena and processes, economic categories and laws, production relations and economic interests, forms of social combination of the production process, production
driving forces and production relations.
An economic system is a complex social mechanism of interacting subsystems that are in varying degrees of subordination to each other, based on form and content, general, special and individual, phenomenon and essence, quantity and quality.
According to the established opinion, J. Galbraith notes, “... the purpose of the economic system... is to produce material goods and provide services that
people need." The economic system, according to the economist G. Grossman, represents unity27: 1)
natural structure (i.e. natural structure of production resources and material wealth, structure of the social product); 2)
institutional system (i.e. the system of social and organizational forms of the economy); 3)
systems of functional connections (i.e., various technical and economic connections between elements of the natural and “institutional structure of the economy”).
The concept of an economic system is fundamental in economic analysis. For example, L.A. Meereenh considers the economic system as a combination of the following elements: natural and material resources; people as producers and consumers; economic relations, i.e. processes of production, distribution and consumption occurring within and between economic units; economic order, which is constituted by legal and institutional rules that are mandatory for the economic process.28
According to A. A. Lapinskas, the goals of economic systems are always directly or indirectly related to meeting the needs of the elements of the system or the entire system as a whole.29
In our opinion, the economic system is formed on the basis of the interaction of the subjects of the system; the subjects can be economic organizations and enterprises. In our opinion, the economic system underlies the formation of the economic system.
Economic systems are in constant flux. Moreover, such movement is more dynamic and changeable than, for example, that of natural objects due to the influence of numerous subjective factors. And this is not always growth - some indicators, and sometimes the majority, characterize negative trends in certain periods. The development process can be represented as a sequence of evolutionary changes in the states of the region’s system with a transition to a new qualitative level, the spasmodic nature of which means the beginning of the next
The economic system strives to suppress external influences, but to do this it requires a lot of effort. There comes a time when she is unable to cope with these influences. This is followed by a period of instability, from which there are two paths - complete disintegration or self-organization into a new order. Sustainable development of an economic system is a complex category and there are many different approaches to this matter. The term “sustainable development” is very relative. V. Levashov points out this uncertainty of the term: “The concept of sustainable development allows for different interpretations and needs further improvement, especially on the issue of ways of its implementation.”30
The concept of sustainable development has gone through a certain development path. Back in the mid-70s. XX century The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) formulated the concept and concept of “development without destruction”. Later it was replaced by the concept of “ecodevelopment” - environmentally acceptable development or development that seeks to cause the least negative impact on the environment and, therefore, the least environmental damage31.
The concept of sustainable development goes back to the idea of a “stable” (equilibrium) economy (steady-state economy). This concept formed the basis of the famous report of the Brundtland Commission (international commission on environment and development), published in 1987, soon received support from the UN, and in 1992 the second UN conference on environment and development recommended that the governments of all states develop their own national sustainable development strategies. The phrase “sustainable development” entered the lexicon at the end of the 20th century. In 1983, the United Nations International Commission on Environment and Development was created. It was headed by the Prime Minister of Norway Gro Harl Brundtland in 1987. The meaning of this concept is very broad. The Brundtland Commission report defines sustainable development as development that meets current needs without jeopardizing the ability to meet them in the future.
next generation
After the conference in Rio de Janeiro, the World Bank developed a system of indicators for sustainable development.
Currently, there are two fairly bright directions in the very interpretation of the concept of sustainable development. The first direction of research develops the ideas contained in the works of V. Vernadsky32 and members of the Club of Rome33
Research initiated by the Club of Rome paved the way for organizing a discussion of global development issues on an interstate basis within the UN. In the reports of the Club of Rome, based on mathematical calculations, there were
forecasts were made for the environmental consequences of resource depletion
owls due to uncontrolled economic growth.
In 1968, the Club of Rome was founded; this period is characterized as a period of rapid economic growth in many countries of the world. In 1972, the world was gripped by the oil crisis, which had a profound impact on global investment patterns and caused many strategic changes in the development patterns of economic systems. The crisis became a warning to industrialized countries about the vulnerability of their economies - in particular, the dependence of supplies of raw materials and energy on events occurring
walking in certain regions. E. Laszlo, a member of the Club of Rome, emphasizes that the technological imperative becomes dangerous when economic growth curves plateau, the market becomes saturated with goods, the environment reaches the limits at which it can absorb pollution, and energy and material resources become scarce and expensive. Modern society lives in a period of one of the most profound and, undoubtedly, the most rapid transformations in the history of mankind. The transformations taking place today are not inferior in depth to those that led to the transition of pre-industrial development to the industrial era, but this does not happen over the course of centuries, but only over decades. In the 20th century, the world's population almost doubled, but the price was the devastation of natural resources and environmental pollution. Economic and environmental problems have caused social problems. Modern market conditions, created by humanity's desire for economic growth, differ from the conditions that prevailed in the Middle Ages. As the demand for sources of various resources increases and the supply of available resources and other necessities of life decreases, a critical shortage develops34.
However, for many decades, humanity has been arguing about the correct choice of the direction of the economic structure. It is necessary, however, to note situations in which the free action of market forces does not ensure the optimal use (Pareto optimum) of resources. In other words, “market failures” arise due to “external effects”, incomplete information, and limited competition. Market flaws turn into inopportunities
equal losses.
The second direction is becoming more and more confident, in which not the environmental aspects of sustainability are brought to the fore, but the socio-economic ones, which is especially characteristic of modern Russian research. In the approach to the formation and comprehensive study of Russia's development strategy, carried out by a group of scientists led by Academician V.A. Koptyug, the vital interests of Russia, ensuring its security and the transition to sustainable development are named as the highest priority. The meaning of the transition to sustainable development is not only a balanced solution to economic, social and environmental problems, but also the creation of a new system of values for society35.
Within this direction, sustainability is interpreted primarily in the context of the need to ensure the reproducibility of limited resources, and the main emphasis is on the environmental component of sustainability. This concept of sustainable development has earned public recognition, because it is quite positive. The concept of sustainable development reflects the balanced development of a socio-ecological-economic system, where three large areas are distinguished: nature, society and economy. Identification of a subject is the process of separating him from the environment. The term “environment” in the literature most often refers to the totality of currently existing abiotic, biotic and social environments, capable of jointly and directly having an indirect or direct, immediate or remote impact on people and their economy, on animals, plants.
bodies and other organisms.
According to A. A. Lapinskas, a balanced economic structure of a mixed type generally corresponds to the concept of “sustainable development,” which defines a set of criteria for progress, taking into account the trends of the last decades of the 20th century. This concept substantiates the need to optimize the use of resources in order to reduce the negative human impact on the environment. The term “sustainable development” at the same time means “sufficient” development, rejecting industrial expansionism, which becomes an end in itself both under capitalism and under the dominance of mega-hierarchies. Thus, the concepts of “sustainable development”, in particular, and convergence in general, merge with the theories of “non-capitalist” or “special”
development paths, except for their radical options.
Sustainable development within the framework of a socio-ecological-economic system assumes that the equilibrium properties of such a system and the balance of social, economic and environmental interests are maintained under external influences. The state of the system, its elements and connections between them with a high degree of reliability determines a number of its future states. Equilibrium can be considered in statics and dynamics. Statics means a zero increase in the parameters of the system under consideration. Statics is an episode in the overall trajectory of development. The system under consideration is characterized by continuous movement, namely, changes in basic parameters: the rate of economic growth, level of economic development, standard of living, state of the environment, population size and, finally, changes in qualitative parameters characterizing the state of the elements of the system.
According to E.S. Ivleva, a moment of equilibrium of a system in statics is theoretically possible. In dynamics, a socio-ecological-economic system is always in a state of approaching or moving away from a state of stable equilibrium. The sustainability of the socio-ecological-economic system is not understood absolutely, but as an approach to a state of stable equilibrium while maintaining a balance of needs and interests of present and future generations, a combination of economic efficiency and environmental safety in the activities of economic entities at all levels, dynamic equilibrium based on the gradual reduction of the gap in levels of economic development of countries around the world, taking into account the environmental components of growth and taking into account
resource limitations of development.
The concept of quality of economic growth includes both environmental quality and quality of life. According to some estimates, the determining factor in economic development is the quality of economic growth and the perfect distribution of the produced product, and not the growth of other macroeconomic indicators. This mutual conditionality should be considered as a variant of the connection between the socio-ecological-economic system. The relationship between economic growth and quality of life is ambiguous and can be traced in two directions: positive and negative. The vector of the positive connection is planned: economic growth is focused on increasing the level and quality of life. The negative relationship is most clearly visible in the processes of environmental pollution. There is no consensus among experts on such an important issue as sustainable development of society and the sustainability of economic systems. Ignoring the factors influencing the degree of stability of the economic system leads to increased economic and social imbalances, an accelerated decline in production and many other consequences. We will try to bring some terminological clarity to the subject of research, bearing in mind both the clarification of terms and the relationship between them.
A.V. Lusse, considering the problems of sustainability of the economic system, notes: “... at present there is no single, agreed upon concept. This situation is explained by the insufficient elaboration of the problem, as well as its versatility.” He gives four translation options for the term “sustainable development”36.
Firstly, these are the terms “stability” and “stabilization” (stability, stabilization), used to characterize socio-economic stability and stability of economic development.
Secondly, this is the classical term “equalibrium” (equilibrium), used in micro- and macroeconomic analysis to characterize the equality of supply and demand, dynamic equilibrium and sustainable effective development, as well as “steadu state” (steady state, state of stationary stability), introduced by R. Solow. It also reflects the conditions of dynamic equilibrium.
Thirdly, this is the term “sustainable development” - sustainable development, used to characterize the type of economic development that ensures environmental safety, reproducibility of limited resources and the quality of economic growth (fair distribution of income) supply.
Fourthly, this is the term “sustained positive economic growth”, used to characterize dynamic equilibrium and sustainable effective development.
Stability and equilibrium are different terms; however, if, under external influence on a system, the equilibrium properties of the system are preserved, then this state of equilibrium is called stable.
Stability is one of the basic concepts of cybernetics, closely related to the idea of invariance. Sustainable economic development presupposes positive economic growth values. Sustainable economic growth is the basis of sustainable development. Economic growth is usually understood as the movement of economic life, trends in the main elements and indicators that characterize them (production volume, prices, employment, income, etc.). Growth is expressed in an increase in potential and real GDP and an increase in national wealth. The problem of growth is the central task of all territorial systems.
The general points of the concepts “sustainable economic growth” and “sustainable development” include the following: firstly, in both concepts the term “sustainability” is used as a key semantic characteristic. Secondly, despite the existence of conceptual differences within each theory (meaning growth theory and sustainability theory), in both cases the same criteria for sustainability are often put forward. Thirdly, both theories have a pronounced macroeconomic orientation, that is, they relate to the characteristics of the functioning of the economy as a whole.
System analysis specialists have substantiated the conclusion that “stability” should be defined as a certain regular repeatability (i.e., the property of repeating itself unchanged), and, accordingly, instability - as a condition that occurs sporadically and may not be repeated.37
The instability of development, as an internal property of a transition economy, is associated with changes in old relations in the absence of new institutions; with a clash of old and new economic interests; with a violation of established social standards of life support for the population and its division into opposing groups. The manifestation of instability occurs as a result of constantly emerging socio-economic contradictions between the old and the new, which causes an imbalance in the system and the emergence of crisis conditions that take different forms of manifestation (open and hidden) and the scale of spread from local conflicts to a general catastrophic state.
A.I. Popov emphasizes that a transition economy is characterized by an alternative approach to solving major economic problems, which is accompanied by a clash of alternatives in the form of deep economic processes that develop into clashes and struggles between social strata supporting certain directions of economic development. The duration of transformations during the transition period is due to the inertia of previous directions of development of economic processes, the scale of work on the structural restructuring of production, and the creation of new political and economic institutions38.
Thus, the functioning of heterogeneous economic systems, the use of various incentives, and special forms of interaction between labor collectives and individuals with government authorities give rise to specific economic relations in the form of trends that unite certain segments of the population. In these conditions, socio-economic development is unstable, changeable, and accompanied by crisis phenomena. Overcoming instability, creating an integral unity of a functioning system and stable development is the main purpose of a transformational economy. According to A.D. Ursula, in the model of unsustainable development, all differences in the level of development of countries are “tied to the economy.” This one-dimensional economic dimension underlies the division of countries into developed, developing and transition economies. In this sense, the model of unsustainable development can rightfully be called a market or economic model based on the type of criteria (indicators) underlying such classification. In the model of sustainable development, first of all (along with economic ones, which remain) indicators of development of the social sphere and environmental safety, economic security, i.e. are taken into account. interprets the “3-dimensional” model of sustainable development39.
For example, A.V. Kolosov40 believes that sustainable economic development should be understood primarily as long-wave cycles that express long-term processes of economic activity with a period of about 50 years and, as is known, are called “Kondratiev cycles.” The process of sustainable economic development is a process of growth of economic results not of a short-term, but of a permanent nature. The consequence of such cyclical development is irreversibility, i.e. the impossibility of the reverse transition of a newly formed structure, perfect in terms of functioning characteristics in situations of inevitable progress, to the previous, outdated one. Irreversibility, stability and loss of stability are characteristics of the state of any developing economic system. In the process of transition to a new qualitative state, the economic system at some point may turn out to be unstable, which requires special attention to procedures for ensuring its safety from destabilizing influences of any nature.
Also, according to A.I. Popov, regional units are identified as components of the national strategy for sustainable development. According to the law of divergence, the loss of controllability of the state occurred as a result of the sovereignization of territories. He emphasizes that the severance of economic relations led to the relative isolation of the subjects of the Federation, the destruction of the whole, and a manifold increase in the differences between the isolated parts. As a result, an imbalance of the system occurred, which, according to Ashby’s law, can be overcome by reducing the diversity of the controlled system53.
The nature of the state of any system is determined, on the one hand, by its external environment, and on the other, by the structural and functional features of the system itself.54 In the most general form, three groups of factors can be distinguished55 on which the functioning of socio-economic systems depends (Table 1).
Table 1
Factors in the socio-economic development of the region Types of factors Characteristics Direction and level of influence on the economic development of the region Natural and climatic In the early stages of human development (theory of comparative advantage) Positive - an incentive for the social division of labor; negative - desert highlands, northern zone in Russia Production and economic means and objects of labor, technology, quantity and quality of labor, forms of organization of labor and production, volume of product, nature and To a dominant extent determines the stability of a particular system, requires certain changes, shifts, i.e. transient processes 53 Popov A.I. Economic theory: textbook for universities. - St. Petersburg: Publishing house "Peter", 2001. - P. 403. 54
Luzin G.P., Selin V.S., Istomin A.V. Sustainability and economic security in the regions: trends, criteria, regulatory mechanism. - Apatity: KSC Publishing House. - P. 95. 55
Factor - an essential circumstance in any phenomenon or process; the original component of something. Big encyclopedic dictionary / Ch. ed. M. Prokhorov. - M., 1968. - P. 776.
forms of product appropriation Sociocultural Manifestation of spiritually conscious activity of a person and society, his value orientations, attitude towards work and society, social behavior, mentality In transitional states of society, they provide certain restrictions, they can have both a positive and negative orientation. At the conceptual level, sustainability of development ( accordingly, stabilization of the equilibrium state) can be represented as ensuring (respectively, the desire) by the state and society to achieve some rational development process (respectively, dynamic development between these components). The peculiarities of finding the desired balance are the natural resource, environmental perspective of considering emerging problems and the specificity of the existing modern economic situation41.
S. A. Dyatlov understands by “sustainability of an economic system” the ability of a given system to adequately respond to external and internal influences and function, behave in such a way as to maintain a stable internal structural and functional organization and develop towards achieving the genetically specified goals of its existence -
The problem of the transition to sustainable development, in addition to the national one, also has a regional aspect, during which the contradictions between the tasks of developing productive forces and maintaining economic security in the region, as well as the preservation of unique natural objects, must be overcome. The region's raw materials export focus consumes environmental resources at a certain cost. The result is some deterioration of natural resources. The environmental goal of sustainable development of the region is defined as maintaining some balance in environmental management.
The economic goal implies ensuring economic growth with rational use of natural resources. The extensive economic growth observed in many regions of Russia contradicts the principles of sustainable development. Therefore, scientific support for economic security measures is of great importance for ensuring sustainable development.
The ability for self-development and progress, one of the main goals of the national economy, is especially important in the modern, dynamically developing world. The stability and self-preservation of the national economy become mandatory conditions. We consider the stability of the economy and the self-preservation of the economy from the point of view of ensuring economic security.
A.I. Popov, considers sustainable development as the creation of a unified ecological and economic system, which involves the inclusion of the national economy, nature and society into a single system. It reflects the interests of both present and future generations. Unlimited extraction and use of material resources (fuel combustion, deforestation, release of gases into the atmosphere) has led to serious contradictions between society and nature, which have grown to an international scale. In these conditions, foreign economists have put forward the concept of limiting economic growth and consumption of material resources, but such a policy is acceptable only for
developed countries.
Without refuting the thesis about the protection of economic interests, we note that the ability to satisfy social needs is the prerogative of not only a protected economy, but of any national economic system. A protected economy satisfies social needs better than an unprotected one. However, the ability to satisfy social needs is the task of any economy.
Having studied various concepts of sustainable development, we note that currently there are many definitions of “sustainable development”, which indicates the extraordinary versatility, volume, and elasticity of the category. We can talk about the parameters of sustainability of economic, social, political systems, the entire social system as a whole and the regional or national system.
Within the framework of the concept of sustainable development, a dispute involuntarily arises about the primacy of environmental or economic factors of development. Based on views about the origin and formation of humanity, the emergence, reproduction and functioning of living things, nature is primary. In relation to the process of development of society, when economic relations have already taken shape, when the economy operates in the phase of post-industrial development in sustainable development, the economy takes on the guidelines. In this context, the economy as a factor ensuring a normal environmental situation becomes fundamental not only for a particular region, but also for the state as a whole. Therefore, in our opinion, the key factor in sustainable development is the interconnected triad of “economic security - social security - environmental security”.
The sustainability of the regional economy appears to be the consistency of three strategic components:
system of economic interests;
position, state of the regional economy and its institutions;
situation developing in the external environment. From the point of view of V.P. Fofanov, it is most advisable to develop a model of sustainable development acceptable for a particular country at the regional level, where the inertia of processes is lower than at the macrosystem level, and the possibility of promptly making management decisions and maneuvering forces and means is higher. The need to use the concept of sustainable development is largely determined by the fact that the principles of sustainable development:
^ provide an opportunity to understand the problems of modern Russia in a global context;
^ help to systematically comprehend one’s own patterns of society’s development;
^forced to solve local, regional problems with
taking into account limited resources.
Alekseev Yu.P., Shpilev B.E. consider sustainable
development as:
d-one of the fundamental properties of material and immaterial systems is to perform functions in conditions of various, often multidirectional exogenous and endogenous factors, causes and circumstances;
^sustainability manifests itself simultaneously as immutability and variability, sustainability and sustainable development, and in crisis conditions - as survival and subsequent forward movement in the main spheres of life;
The stability of a complex system is ensured not only by the stability of connections between its elements, but also by the ability for internal restructuring of the structures themselves. According to A.V. Kolosov, the process of economic transition to sustainable development, as a task of managing economic activities at the level of an economically independent economic entity or a separate region as a whole, is aimed at ensuring a balance of decisions to preserve a favorable living environment and natural resource potential in order to meet the growing needs of society with the objectives progress of civilization42.
Thus, a retrospective analysis and generalization of various points of view of both foreign and domestic scientists and specialists on sustainable development issues allowed us to draw the following conclusions:
Every country has its own economic system. It consists of different components, each of which is dependent on the others. An economic system is a specially ordered system of connections between producers and consumers of material goods and services. Thus, the economic system, from our point of view, is considered as a system that includes such elements as: 1)
subjects - function to meet the needs of the population, based on its capabilities and natural resource potential; 2)
objects - people as producers and consumers, natural and material resources; 3)
connections, relationships - economic infrastructure and economic institutions (a set of economic institutions and economic relationships);
it is necessary to distinguish the stabilization of the economy from the state of its sustainable development. The process of stabilizing the economy of a region is a process, limited within a certain period of time, of bringing it to a state of reducing factors of decline (threats to economic security) and deterioration of functioning parameters as a prerequisite for intensifying activity;
instability of development is an internal property of a transition economy. The manifestation of instability occurs as a result of constantly emerging socio-economic contradictions between the old and the new, which causes an imbalance in the system and the emergence of crisis conditions that take on different forms of manifestation and scale of spread from local conflicts to a general catastrophic state.
Concept and types of social changes.
Structure and mechanisms of social change.
Factors of social change.
Social development and social progress.
Social stability.
1 . Social change is the various changes that occur over time in social communities, groups, institutions, organizations and societies, in their relationships with each other, as well as with individuals. Such changes can be carried out: at the level of interpersonal relationships; at the level of organizations and institutions, at the level of small and large social groups, at the societal and global levels.
There are four types of social change.
1. Changes relating to the structures of various social entities, or structural social changes. These are, for example, changes in the structure of the family, in the structure of any other community - a small group, professional, territorial, class, nation, society as a whole, changes in the structures of power, in the structures of sociocultural values, etc. This type of change also includes structural changes social institutions, social organizations, etc.
2. Changes affecting social processes or procedural social changes. Thus, we are constantly observing changes occurring in the sphere of social interactions and relationships of various communities; communities, institutions and organizations; communities, institutions, organizations and individuals. These are relationships of solidarity, tension, conflict, equality and subordination that are constantly in the process of change.
3. Changes concerning the functions of various social systems, institutions, organizations. They can be called functional social changes.
4. Changes in the sphere of motivation for individual and collective activity, or motivational social changes. It is obvious that the nature of the needs, interests, motivations in the behavior and activities of individuals, communities, and various groups does not remain unchanged.
All these types of changes are closely interconnected: changes in one type necessarily entail changes in other types. At the same time, it should be borne in mind that the relationship between social changes and other changes - cultural, economic, etc. - has a very complex character. Changes in one area of society do not automatically lead to changes in other areas.
2. By nature, internal structure, and degree of influence on society, social changes can be divided into two large groups - evolutionary and revolutionary. The first group consists of partial and gradual changes, which occur as fairly stable and constant trends towards an increase or decrease in any qualities or elements. They can take on an ascending or descending direction.
All four types of changes described above - structural, functional, procedural and motivational - can be evolutionary in nature. In the case of a conscious organization, evolutionary changes usually take the form of social reforms. But they can also be a purely spontaneous process.
Evolutionary changes are distinguished by a specific internal structure and can be characterized as some kind of cumulative process, i.e. the process of gradual accumulation of some new elements, properties, as a result of which the entire social system changes. The accumulation process itself, in turn, can be divided into two components: the formation of innovations (new elements) and their selection. Innovation is the origin, emergence and strengthening of new elements. Selection is a process carried out spontaneously or consciously, through which some elements of the new are preserved in the system and others are rejected.
Innovation is a complex process of creating, disseminating and using a new practical means to satisfy human needs, as well as changes in the social and material environment associated with this innovation. Social innovations include economic, organizational, cultural, and material innovations include product, technological, etc.
Currently, innovation is considered as a certain stage in the process of social change. The following elements are distinguished in the phenomenon of innovation: a) innovation itself; b) innovators, i.e. those who create it; c) distributors; d) evaluators, perceivers.
Revolutionary social changes differ from evolutionary ones in a significant way: firstly, because they are extremely radical changes, implying a radical breakdown of the social object, secondly, because they are not particular, but general or even universal changes, and, finally, thirdly, they tend to rely on violence.
Cyclical social change is a more complex form of social change, essentially involving evolutionary and revolutionary changes, upward and downward trends. In addition, in this case we do not mean separate individual acts of any changes, but a certain series of changes, which together form a cycle.
It is known that many social institutions, communities, classes and even entire societies change according to a cyclical pattern.
What makes the picture of cyclical social changes particularly complex is the fact that different structures, phenomena and processes in society have cycles of different durations. So at any given moment in history we have the simultaneous coexistence of social structures, phenomena, processes that are at different stages of development of their cycle. This largely determines the far from simple nature of the interaction between them, mutual inconsistencies, discrepancies and conflicts.
Particular attention of specialists is attracted by the cyclical nature of social changes over relatively long periods of time - several decades, in particular, the theory of long waves. An outstanding contribution to the development of these theories was made by the Russian economist N.D. Kondratiev To date, large cycles (long waves) have been recorded by other researchers using a large material of economic and social indicators. Various authors call the basis of the mechanism of long waves: the process of diffusion of innovations, changes in leading sectors of the economy, changes in generations of people, long-term dynamics of the rate of profit, etc. Most scientists consider the phenomenon of long waves not only as economic, but also social, historical and socio-psychological. As a result, the following understanding emerged: large cycles (long waves) are periodic repetitions of characteristic social, economic, and technological situations. These characteristic situations are regularly repeated approximately every 25-50 years. They are almost synchronous for most leading developed countries.
3. It can be argued that the sources of social change can be both economic and political factors, as well as factors located within the sphere of social structures and relations of society. The latter include the interaction between different social systems, structures, institutions, as well as communities at the level of groups, classes, parties, nations, and entire states.
Particular attention should be paid to technological and ideological factors as sources of social change.
The most obvious influence of technological factors on social life has become since the industrial revolution of the 17th-18th centuries. On the one hand, scientific and technological innovations led to consolidation and integration within various communities - social and professional groups, classes, and also changed the nature of the relationships between them, aggravated conflicts and struggles both between groups and classes, and between states. On the other hand, new technology has unprecedentedly expanded the possibilities of communication, exchange of information and cultural values, essentially changed the entire nature of communications between people, and was the basis on which the entire mass information system was formed. Processes such as horizontal and vertical social mobility and all social movements have acquired a new quality.
Ideology has become the most significant factor in social change in different countries of the world in the last two or three centuries. All social changes caused by socio-economic and political reasons are ideological in nature. And the more fundamental changes occur, the more noticeable the role of ideology in them. After all, ideology is a certain set of ideas and concepts that expresses the interests of classes, other social groups, the whole society, explains social reality through the prism of these interests and contains directives (programs) for action (behavior); in their essence, ideologies cannot be neutral in relation to to social change. Through ideology, social groups and classes either demand such changes or resist them.
The role of ideology is noticeable when deeper transformations are carried out, and less noticeable when relatively small, shallow changes are carried out.
In the 20th century science began to directly influence the development of programs of social change, ways and means of their implementation, management decision-making in advanced countries, and the social sciences acquired new social functions related to the identification of specific social problems, their analysis and the development of recommendations for their practical solution. These functions are performed by the so-called social engineering, which carries out practical ordering and rationalization of the spheres of the economy, business, social and other relations. Social sciences have acquired particular significance in transforming the sphere of organization and management (state, municipal, intra-company, etc.), and decision-making systems.
4. Social development as a real process is characterized by three interrelated features - irreversibility, direction and regularity. Irreversibility means the constancy of the processes of accumulation of quantitative and qualitative changes; direction - the line or lines along which accumulation occurs; regularity is not a random, but a necessary process of accumulation of such changes. A fundamentally important characteristic of social development is the time during which it occurs. Even more important is that only over time the main features of social development are revealed. The result of the process of social development is a new quantitative and qualitative state of a social object, which can be expressed in an increase (or decrease) in the level of its organization, a change in place in social evolution, etc. The history of the development of social communities, structures, institutions, their evolution, their origin and extinction - an integral part of the subject of sociology as a science.
Social progress is the improvement of the social structure of society and human cultural life. It presupposes such an orientation of social and generally all development, which is characterized by a transition from lower to higher forms, from less perfect to more perfect.
In general, the development of human society follows the line of increasing progressive social changes. It is important to note such indicators as the improvement of working conditions, the acquisition of greater freedom, political and social rights by the human person, the increasing complexity of the tasks facing modern societies, and the increase in technical, social and other possibilities for solving them.
But social progress is contradictory. Most often we have to deal with social structures and processes in the evolution of which progress can be recorded, but is carried out very contradictorily. In addition to the concept of progress, there is also the concept of regression. This is development from higher to lower, from complex to simple, degradation, lowering the level of organization, weakening and attenuation of functions, stagnation. There are also so-called dead-end lines of development, leading to the death of certain sociocultural forms and structures.
The contradictory nature of social progress is revealed primarily in the fact that the development of many social structures and processes simultaneously leads to their progress in some respects and to regression in others.
One of the important criteria of social progress is its humanistic meaning. It is not enough to talk about social changes, including social development, only as objectively occurring processes. No less important are their other aspects - their appeal to individuals, groups, society as a whole, which inevitably leads to an understanding of their human meaning - they lead to a person’s well-being, his prosperity, or to a decrease in the level and deterioration of his quality of life.
5. The problem of stability has not only scientific, but also extremely relevant practical significance, since in conditions of social instability, mass ideas arise that the stability of society and people’s confidence in their future are identical to the immutability of social systems and structures. But social stability is not synonymous with immutability and immobility of social systems and relationships. In society, such immobility is, as a rule, a sign not of stability, but of stagnation, which sooner or later leads to instability, social tension, and ultimately to instability.
Social stability is the reproduction of social structures, processes and relationships within the framework of a certain integrity of society itself. Moreover, this reproduction is not a simple repetition of previous stages, but necessarily includes elements of variability.
A stable society is a society that develops and, at the same time, maintains its stability, a society with a streamlined process and mechanism of social change that maintains its stability and excludes such political struggle that leads to the weakening of the foundations of society. Therefore, a stable society in the full sense of the word is a democratic society.
Thus, stability in society is achieved not through immutability, immobility, but through the skillful implementation of urgent social changes at the right time and in the right place.
Social stability is due to the existence of social control mechanisms, i.e. a set of methods by which society seeks to influence people's behavior in order to maintain the necessary order. Among the conditions of social stability, factors related to the social-class structure of society and its stratification are highlighted. Among them is the presence in society of a fairly large, so-called middle class, with average income for a given society and average private property. The presence of such a class determines the existence and strengthening of centrist political forces capable of attracting the most active sections of the population to their side.
An alarming factor in the potential instability of society is the presence of a significant layer of lumpen people. This layer, especially if it grows in numbers and merges with criminal elements, can play a very destabilizing role.
Social stability largely depends on the stable state of the political system of society, primarily the state, and the interaction of the executive, legislative and judicial powers.
In strengthening political stability, an important role belongs to such a factor of social life as consensus on fundamental values between the main political parties, social movements, and representatives of all branches of government. The need for consensus is most clearly revealed in periods of transition, when public consent can and does play a decisive role.
"Finance: planning, management, control", 2011, N 5
The economic systems of all countries of the world, based on market mechanisms, are characterized by cyclical development - after a significant economic recovery, an economic recession always occurs. This statement is also true for regional economic systems, which are subsystems and elements of the country’s economic system. As a rule, the state of the regional economic system correlates with the state of the country's economic system.
Governments of all states, regional administrations, and individual business structures strive to achieve constant economic growth, but so far no one has succeeded. Practical research confirms that in any economic system based on market mechanisms, oscillatory processes and wave-like movements occur due to the imperfection of these mechanisms. At the same time, fluctuations in market activity in different economic systems vary quite significantly in regularity, duration and reasons for their occurrence. Over a period of several years, economic growth and an increase in business activity are replaced by a decrease in macro-, meso- and microeconomic growth indicators. An economic recession occurs, supply and demand are reduced, and business activity fades.
An economic recession is characterized by the identification of unstable phenomena in the economic system, which first slow down the development of the entire system, forcing it to adapt to new operating conditions, and then the economic system begins to develop at a faster pace until it accumulates new contradictions and unstable phenomena in its structure. Then this cycle repeats again.
However, in the economic literature, broader attention is paid to the stable state of economic systems, equilibrium and sustainability. This misses the point that without instability, stability and order cannot exist. These two opposite states are one whole of one process - the development of the economic system.
If economic stability is defined as a stable state of an economic system, ensuring optimal functioning and development of this system, maintaining its main characteristics under the influence of internal and external changes, then economic instability of an economic system is its state when there is a decrease in the pace and dynamism of its development, the emergence of stagnant processes and phenomena, the emergence of tension in business circles, characterized by a decline in business activity and growing distrust of business structures towards each other.
Instability is constructive through destructiveness: stability arises through and from instability; instability, like stability, underlies the development of an economic system. Instability is destructive through constructiveness, since the complex ordered structures that have arisen at this point become increasingly unstable.
The constructive role of instability in the process of development of the economic system is manifested as follows:
- the increase in unstable phenomena in the economic system is a signal for the system to enter one of the new paths of development, one of the possible structures;
- instability underlies the mechanism for combining simple structures into complex ones, the mechanism for coordinating the rates of their evolution (coevolution), i.e. leads to the need to harmonize the interests of all economic entities at different levels of the country’s economic system in order to overcome existing contradictions;
- instability can act as a mechanism for switching, changing different modes of system development, transitions from one relatively stable structure to another.
Coevolution- a conjugate, interdependent change in systems or parts within the whole. This is the principle of global evolution. This concept itself comes from evolutionary population theory.
The concept of coevolution is closely related to the concept of self-organization. Self-organization deals with the structures and states of developing systems, and coevolution deals with the relationships between such systems, with the interconnections of evolutionary changes.
The stability of the development of an economic system of any order is achieved through overcoming unstable phenomena that have accumulated over a certain period of development and functioning of various elements of the system. The concept of instability in the development of the regional economic system must be freed from negative connotations, since this feature is inherent in such complex systems as the regional economy. It is instability that can act as a condition for stable and dynamic development. In a regional economic system that is in an equilibrium state for a long time, contradictions accumulate, leading to an unstable state due to the fact that the system with this structure is unable to solve problems to ensure human life. The region's economy can develop effectively only after these contradictions are resolved. For stable stationary systems, a small disturbance “falls” on the same solution, on the same structure. Without the instability-stability pair, there is no development. Instability gives impetus to a new stage in the development of the system.
As noted by I.R. Prigogine, “the term “instability” has a strange fate. Introduced into widespread use quite recently, it is sometimes used with a barely concealed negative connotation, and, moreover, as a rule, to express content that should be excluded from a truly scientific description of reality. Order and disorder , thus, turn out to be closely related - one includes the other. And we can evaluate this statement as the main change that is taking place in our perception of the universe today... Yes, the world is unstable. But this does not mean that it is not amenable to scientific study "Recognition of instability is not capitulation, on the contrary, it is an invitation to new experimental and theoretical research that takes into account the specific nature of this world."
Stability is the process being within a strict space-time framework. An example of stability in physics are constants (Planck's constant, Newton's first law, the speed of light in a vacuum, etc.). In economics, this is market equilibrium, perfect competition, freedom of economic entities. Stability is distinguished by its coherence, i.e. homogeneity over large space-time intervals.
Stability- a strict set of properties, where the slightest fluctuations are considered as interference, as a breakdown into instability.
Instability- the state of the system, characterized by the heterogeneity and multi-temporality of each of the ongoing processes and all changes as a whole. This is a form of observable relationships and causality of all phenomena, the opposite of a stable state.
The human environment, including nature and society with its superstructures, is unstable, unsustainable, unbalanced, and developing. When considering the problems of such a world, one must take into account its two opposing and interconnected qualities that mutually determine each other - stability and instability, order and chaos, certainty and uncertainty.
Instability is a condition for the stable and dynamic development of the economic system of the region, which occurs through the destruction and removal of non-viable forms. Stability and instability in the system, the formation of new structures and the destruction of old ones, replacing each other, develop and evolve the system. Stability and instability arise and exist simultaneously: one includes the other - these are two aspects of one whole, they give us a different vision of economic processes and phenomena.
Modern science, including economics, deals with complex systems, the connection between which is carried out not only through order and stability, but also through instability. Only in the unity of stability and instability can the evolution of the complex economic system of the region and its elements be studied. A complex regional economic system is a whole consisting of stable and unstable parts. The evolution of such a system leads to a new quality, to a new round of dynamic development.
The evolution of a system can, as stated above, be understood as a purposeful movement, a change in this system along a certain development trajectory, consisting of points of states of stability and instability.
In recent years, a new direction of research has been actively formed - evolutionary economics. The wave-like, cyclical nature of the action of basic laws is observed in an open economic system. Government regulation, its scope and significance are undergoing significant changes as the economy evolves. The decreasing role of the state will alternate with periods of its wave-like increase. The decreasing role and importance of the state regulation system during the evolution of the socio-economic system will alternate with its strengthening at certain stages of instability in the economic system; periods of liberalization and control over prices and wages will be observed.
The stability of a system is its ability to maintain its movement along a trajectory at a level of resource consumption that can be self-sustaining and self-regulating for a long time.
Traditional macroeconomics focuses on continuous and, most often, quantitative growth, rather than on sustainable development, which does not take into account the efficiency of development of the economic system.
The effectiveness of system development is the effectiveness of the system development process, defined as the ratio of the result, the effect of its functioning, to the costs that determined the result.
For modern economic systems, it is relevant to develop mechanisms that would ensure their sustainable development without a quantitative increase in resources, with the help of produced labor, cost and capital.
The evolution of a system is determined by the struggle between organization and disorganization in the system, the accumulation and complication of information, its organization and self-organization, the complexity and diversity of intrasystem processes. An important criterion for the effectiveness of a system is its dynamic, structural and organizational predictability, the absence of anomalies and ensuring dynamic growth, the presence and dynamic updating of criteria for evaluating decisions made.
Particular attention should be paid to studying the stability and instability of the development of the banking system, since this system is the main barometer showing the state of the economy. Banks and non-banking organizations included in the banking system are a fundamental block that allows the country's economic entities to function and develop effectively. The state of stability and instability of the banking system is directly related to the state of the finances of the real economy, the finances of the national economy, as well as the state of financial connections between the sectors of the real economy of the regions with each other.
A banking system is in the realm of stability when it facilitates rather than hinders the functioning of the economy and dissipates financial imbalances that arise as a result of significant negative and unexpected events.
The state of stability of the banking system is characterized by the following main features:
- stability of the payment infrastructure (uninterrupted settlements in the economy);
- stability of financial institutions (banks and non-bank financial intermediaries);
- stability of interest rates in the interbank market (absence of excessive volatility);
- a margin of safety in the banking system sufficient to enable it to withstand negative economic shocks in the future, absorb negative economic shocks and not spread them to the real economy;
- efficient distribution of financial resources in the economy;
- effective management of financial risks in the economy (identification, quantification, pricing and redistribution of risks).
The stability of the banking system is associated with the problem of ensuring the highest possible level of financial stability in the economy, i.e. stability of financial relations in all sectors of the economy.
According to F. Mishkin's definition, “financial instability occurs when shocks that affect the financial system interfere with the flow of information in such a way that the financial system can no longer do its job of channeling funds to where opportunities for productive investment exist.”
According to P.V. Kallaura financial instability (destabilization) implies such a balance of risks and/or vulnerability in the financial system in which it ceases to perform its functions, key financial intermediaries are unable to fulfill their financial obligations, and negative shocks are transmitted through the financial system to the real economy.
H. Minsky believed that instability in the banking system is a normal functioning, internally generated by the behavior of the capitalist economy. Instability, in accordance with the views of H. Minsky, is endogenously present in a market economy, is associated with the cyclical dynamics of markets and the economy as a whole, and can lead to instability even without the influence of external shocks.
Let us consider the process of growth of unstable phenomena in the economic system according to the concept of H. Minsky.
The revival phase of the business cycle, which H. Minsky calls “a state of calm growth,” is stimulated by an increase in the optimism of economic entities. The expected income from the use of capital assets is growing, the investment process is rapidly gaining momentum. However, the risks are still high due to the fact that entrepreneurs and bankers have the recent recession and depression fresh in their minds. Therefore, most of the investments are financed from internal sources, and this is the reason that, in the terminology of H. Minsky, secured financing prevails in the economy. According to H. Minsky, the financial system in an economy with secured financing is “robust” in relation to external shocks and influences.
Thus, a "state of calm growth" is ideal for the economy. Aggregate demand and real output are increasing rapidly, prices of current output, if they are rising, are growing steadily and slowly, the unemployment rate is rapidly approaching the natural level, and besides, thanks to the predominance of secured financing, the financial system is healthy and “strong.” However, the “state of quiet growth”, considered as normal for an economic system, as a state to which such a system naturally tends, in reality is not self-sustaining, as shown in the concept of H. Minsky.
The longer the economy is in a “state of quiet growth”, i.e. The longer prosperity lasts, the more optimistic the expectations of business entities become and the more the risks of the borrower and lender are reduced. Business entities are increasingly showing an “incentive to invest,” but due to a lack of their own funds, they are forced to switch to external financing. In other words, firms' willingness to issue liabilities in order to acquire assets increases. Banks and other financial institutions respond to this by not only increasing the amount of money in circulation, but also offering qualitatively new types of money. During this period, the greatest number of financial innovations occur, changing the quantity and quality of money: on the one hand, the structure of money becomes more complicated due to the emergence of increasingly less liquid “quasi-money”; and on the other hand, the quantity of money and/or the speed of its circulation increases.
If the Central Bank, in an effort to cool the situation, raises the interest rate and reduces the money supply in the economy, then this only adds fuel to the fire of the ingenuity of financial intermediaries. High and rising interest rates reward financial innovation. An increase in reserve requirements in relation to traditional forms of credit money (demand deposits, etc.) and other similar measures are pushing financial institutions to create new forms of money that have not yet been brought under the control of the Central Bank. This is especially facilitated by the use of a “managed liability strategy”.
As a result of this financial evolution, the money supply escapes the tutelage of the “monetary policy makers”, so that its effectiveness weakens.
As a result, both the reduction of borrower and lender risks and financial innovation are changing the type of financing that the business sector uses when carrying out investment activities. The transition of firms to excessive external financing has the following results:
A) speculative financing, in which current cash inflows are sufficient only to pay interest, but they are not enough to amortize the debt, and the business sector is forced to resort to new loans, carrying out the so-called rollover loan;
b) " Ponzi financing", in which current cash inflows are not enough even to pay interest on the loan, and the business sector is forced to increase debt. “Ponzi financing” is nothing more than a “pyramid scheme.”
With the predominance of these two types of financing (and especially the latter) in the economy, the financial system becomes, according to H. Minsky, “fragile”; instability in the economy is increasing, and the pendulum of business activity is swinging more and more.
It should be noted that “Ponzi financing” is not generated by the fraud of companies, but by the general financial and economic situation and, above all, by rising interest rates. Their increase leads to an increase in the current financial obligations of firms under a system of floating interest rates or when using a rollover loan, i.e. in speculative financing. In the latter case, rising interest rates inevitably transform speculative financing into “Ponzi financing.”
But "Ponzi financing" does not last. Sooner or later, business entities using this type of financing will not be able to increase their debt to pay obligations, at least due to the risk of the lender, but also due to the general lack of liquidity in the economy. This is why the greater the weight of speculative and Ponzi financing, the greater the fragility of the financial system.
The concept of financial fragility is extremely important in Minsky's theory. It is no coincidence that, as already noted, his “financial instability hypothesis” is often also called the “financial fragility hypothesis.” Based on these definitions, it becomes clear why speculative and Ponzi financing creates financial fragility. It is also clear why financial fragility is perhaps the main cause of the cyclical downturn. However, the main conclusion that can be drawn at this stage of the analysis of Minsky's theory is the following. Increasing the degree of financial fragility (financial fragilization) of the economy is an integral element of the development of the country's economy. Economic development is impossible without financial fragilization. But since such fragilization creates the preconditions for the replacement of economic growth with instability, the development of the economic system has a cyclical nature and cannot proceed evenly and in a balanced manner.
In our opinion, the concept of financial instability by H. Minsky is a confirmation of the unity of the aspects of stability and instability in the process of development of the regional economy and, in particular, the development of the regional banking system.
The main signs of instability of the banking system at this stage of development of the country’s economy are:
- the inability of the banking system to sufficiently perform the functions of accumulation and mobilization of temporarily free funds;
- inability to satisfy the needs of business entities and individuals for credit resources, high interest rates on credit resources;
- failure to ensure timely settlements and payments in the economy;
- unreliable assessment and management of financial risks in the banking system;
- poor quality management of the institutions of the regional banking system in the current economic conditions;
- high volatility of interest rates in the interbank market due to distrust of banking system institutions towards each other.
Instability in the banking system arises due to the increase in a certain period of time of a significant number of negative trends and contradictions of a macroeconomic and microeconomic nature. They are the result of a combination of both factors external to the banking system and shortcomings of the banking system itself.
The main macroeconomic factors of instability in the development of the banking system are:
- high ratio of domestic credit to GDP;
- rapid growth of money supply;
- outflow of depositors' funds from banks due to distrust in the country's banking system as a whole;
- decline in exports caused by adverse shocks in world markets;
- revaluation of the national currency in real terms; significant external debt;
- weak coverage of short-term liabilities by reserves; low economic growth rates;
- negative shocks in the stock market;
- low gold and foreign exchange reserves;
- high interest rates on the global capital market;
- outflow of capital from the country;
- rise in national interest rates.
Macroeconomic factors and problems are the main causes of instability in the banking system of the region, since the macroeconomic environment determines the field of activity of banks. However, instability of the banking system occurs with the simultaneous manifestation of the accumulated problems of most banks (microeconomic factors) and mesoeconomic factors, which can be aggravated by sudden changes in macroeconomic factors.